What are the chances the +1.5 points come into play?

Is it really possibly Chiefs win by 1 point or is this essentially just a Pick-em game?

It’s not gonna come into play. Just bet the ML on the team you think wins. 

Of course its possible. Theres a few scenarios that could bring it into play.

One team kicks 2 more FG's than the other. The team that gets outscored on FG's scores one more TD than the other and there are no 2 point conversions attempted in the game.

The game goes to OT and the team to possess the ball decides to go for 2 instead of trying to extend the game.

One of the kickers chokes and misses an extra point. 

Obviously its unlikely but far from impossible. Personally I have a feeling this game wont be as close as people think.

From the year 2000 thru 2024 the margin of victory in an NFL game was 1 point in 277 games. This was 4.3% of games played. This data represents regular season games only.

If "it's not gonna come into play" why not lay the point with KC at -105?  Betting KC on the ML is -120.

Imagine KC wins by 1 and you take -1.5...when you could have just risked a TINY bit more taking ML at -120

ML or bust

Great question 

By the numbers it's around 4% as Jimmy stated

But a little bit higher for this specific game given how close the teams are

23-24 somebody 

          Teams that have won the Super Bowl are 49-7-2 ATS.   Meaning that only 7 times in 58 games did an underdog need the points to cover.  So, historically speaking, just pick the team you think will win outright.

I think (HOPE) it's aFG game. Betting middles has worked for me in these playoffs, so a bet +3.5 both ways is what I'm thinking.

Too much juice on both sides. If its not a FG game you lose around 3/4 of a unit. And the odds of it not being a FG or less game are greater than the odds you're getting so its not a +EV bet.

That doesn't mean it can't win this time, but just don't do it every time. It has 0 chance of making you money long term.

But I don't think you were talking about long term were you. Carry on

 EV

I think you gotta ask yourself what would be the dream outcome for the books? Would it be a one point win for KC, thus killing those who got KC at -1.5, pushing those that got KC at -1 and killing all Eagles' moneyline bets? Of course the KC moneyline tickets would also cash and so too the Eagles +1.5 or +2 tickets. 

Or a one point Eagles' win which would kill the KC sides -1.5 and -1 tickets, and KC moneyline plays? If the lions' share of the money is on the Eagles, no doubt then that the books would be pulling for a KC blowout of the Eagles?  

I saw a Madden simulated game on youtube and on the last play of a 27-27 game, Hurts throws a long pass that comes down at the KC 5 yard line and the Chiefs are called for a pass interference penalty at the 5 and they kick a winning field goal with no time left on the clock. For some (not for all), such an ending the game penalty on KC, would put to rest the public suspicions of referee tampering.