what demapples might do. 1-0 with bills bonus sucker bet MNF

won with the bills as an inaugural replacement pick for the missing poster 'demapples'
where are u man?
anyways, i share much the same philosophy as the 'demapples' that is in most part finding out where the bets are and where the money is going.

first off my own personal capping i can first tell you that the afc as a whole is better than the nfc. it has been that way for a little while now. so if given a choice between out of conference games i would immediately lean towards the afc team
when i saw this line i wanted the pats. they are the afc team, more experienced and seasoned. i even regard brady as the better qb. new orleans is beat up in the secondary and so forth. plus i can get +115 or better by taking them without the vig. big bonus right?!?!
wrong.
pats is the sucker bet.
from a site many of us use. all week it showed the most bets during this week on this monday night tilt. which is unusual cuz most of the action would be on a sunday. just who is the public on?
over 53% on both spread and ml favoring the pats.
on this very site as well over 52% on covers share the same opinion.expert pix however have the saints. just who would u side with knowing this info alone.

the public can also not pick a dog.
yesterday the public %'s were on
jacksonsville +3
carolina +3 or 3.5 depending on where u shop and
61% where backing the chiefs
that was just this week. i don't have the numbers over the years, but i don't need to hash this out. simply the public loses when it tries to pick a dog.

yesterday i won with the demapples substitute pick on buffalo +3.5 i know it would have been demapples pick as well as over 90% were on the phins. hell even in that thread there was only 1 supporter out of 10 on with me - even that supported the 90%

yes i can give you stats as to why i believe the pats are the better team. some things in this world of betting proves that the better team does not always win on a given night. money is usually the reason why.
if you do want personal justification as to why i might lean to new orleans :
 after watching the dolphins as a 90% public dog and then losing to buffy the dolphin slayer...and how the pats beat the living crap out of the jets... can you honestly tell me that the jets or the phins have a chance to overtake new england for the division title?
hell no.
so does new england really need this game?
hell no. what do they have to prove especially with a division game against miami coming up

lastly consider this. for those of you who don't think these big games is more about money than football.
in the indy - pats game many of you still are scratching your heads as to why bellichek would go for it on 4th down and winning by 13pts late in the game. the public was big, big, big on the pats ml at plus money.
if you believe in conspiracies quite possibly bellichek's pocket was lined with vegas money......however you want to see it do you
really trust in bellichek again with the public riding his ass again?

here are my bets and i already made this my streak survivor pick and made this a play yesterday in the nfl contest
saints -128 that is boring money so this is how i will make more out of this
from bet365 and all your books should have similar winning margins of victory. bet365 gives the best ranges compared to the greek say

saints win by

1-6 +350 largest
7-12 +450 medium
13-18 +700 small
will stagger the wagers as above so i can come out with a profit should any of them hit. 13-18 will provide a small profit while of course i would profit the most from the saints winning on or less than 6pts

why not just bet saints -1?

and i didn't read any of that

Public percentages were in favor of Pittsburgh and they covere.d

This game is basically 50/50 in percentages and you are saying Pats are the sucker bet?  How is that?

I just keep reading more..........so NFL is fixed?

I'm not saying your right or wrong on the Saints, which I think you could flip a coin and not cap the game to save yourself headaches, but do you think Belicheck, Brady, Moss, Welker are just not gonna show up tonight because the Phins and Jets can't catch them?

consider that for example and sorry man it is not 50/50 . it is 58% spread and 56% ml as i look at it now. hardly 50/50 when u consider
at this time there is
82k bets.
what is the average size bet ? $50 for ml? $100 for the spread?
when you multiply the size of the bets x the percentage of public bets x the amount of the bet....you would understand that they would lose quite heavily on this game should the pats win.
also understand that the 82k bets is only a random sampling of 5 books that they use to derive at those numbers. therefore, there is much much more on the pats at other shops.
if u read above my inclination is with the pats personally, but
i am wise in my losses to know that i will side with vegas on these big money games than with the public. just that simple

One last thing DemApples would not be anywhere near this game as his sucker bet of the week.  He makes one pick a week and it usually has the betting percentages weighed heavily to one side.  (More than 70%)  Not 55/45 or 50/50

true. and we will never know if buf was his pick either.
is the nfl fixed?
all sports can be fixed if money was a consideration both in life on and off the field.
pgh won as a dog and the public were on them...
not saying all but more than 50% of the time the public loses picking a dog. you would know that if you gamble as much as me. i am experieced enough to know this and am wiser because of it

BOL tonight

you as well! whatever you decide to do.
good questions and concerns. all valid

Bro 76 % money was on the steelers ML, and 63 % was on the Ravens Spread. Worked out perfectly for the books, the dog covers but doesent win outright.

noneed who cares if you read any posting...

Thanks for the info....been on this site for 5 years and seen alot of great cappers leave because of people like nobrain...I mean noneed going into peoples threads and slamming them...keep up the good work!

w/u too long that i forgot to add
saints -122 ml

I was not slamming him I just did not agree with some of his points.  (if that was towards me)  He even said good questions, all valid.  Currtis I actually thought I saw 60 some percent on Pitt spread.  Maybe i'm mistaken or maybe that was the covers consensus percentage but I konw it wasn't the Pitt ml. 

yes the money was also on pgh ml to win the game s/u with all the lovers on pgh last night - i don't believe the books took a hit on this one