When capping playoff football, three things matter most.

Question

1) Who has the better Head Coach.2) Who has the better QB3) Who has the better DefenseA decisive edge in 2 of these 3 categories goes  a long way in determining who wins. Looking back at past winners on wild card weekend, you will notice that the winning teams had an edge in at least 2 of these 3 categories. Sometimes a team with a better HC and a better defense beat the team with the better QB. Sometimes the team with the better HC and QB beat the team with the better defense. And, yes, sometimes a historically superior defense trumped a better HC and a better QB (but such instances are few). Looking at this week&#x27;s games through this perspective, there are three teams with an edge in two of these three categories. Seattle at DallasHC SeattleQB SeattleDefense Dallas (slightly)Eagles at BearsHC a washQB a washDefense Bears with a HUGE advantageChargers at RavensHC RavensQB ChargersDefense RavensColts at TexansHC ColtsQB ColtsDefense TexansIt will be interesting to see what happens.

begginerboy · Answer

1) Who has the better Head Coach.2) Who has the better QB3) Who has the better DefenseA decisive edge in 2 of these 3 categories goes  a long way in determining who wins. Looking back at past winners on wild card weekend, you will notice that the winning teams had an edge in at least 2 of these 3 categories. Sometimes a team with a better HC and a better defense beat the team with the better QB. Sometimes the team with the better HC and QB beat the team with the better defense. And, yes, sometimes a historically superior defense trumped a better HC and a better QB (but such instances are few). Looking at this week&#x27;s games through this perspective, there are three teams with an edge in two of these three categories. Seattle at DallasHC SeattleQB SeattleDefense Dallas (slightly)Eagles at BearsHC a washQB a washDefense Bears with a HUGE advantageChargers at RavensHC RavensQB ChargersDefense RavensColts at TexansHC ColtsQB ColtsDefense TexansIt will be interesting to see what happens.

lancer89074 · Answer

Eagles @ Bears&#xA;QB a wash? Gee, I think that given the experience and performance of Foles in big game situations, the edge goes to the Eagles. In all of those playoff games last year, the Eagles were the dogs...&#xA;But I did like the thread...there is a lot of truth in your presentation...food for thought.

undermysac · Answer

Great post BBFor the Eagles/Bears matchup we can make an argument for Trubisky&gt;Foles if we consider a couple variables:1. Escape abilityFoles is a statue. 8 rushes for 18 yards. -2.7% rush dvoa. The Bears are #1 vs the rush per dvoa, so if Philly can&#x27;t get the run game going...their ears will be pinned back vs a stationary target.On rpo&#x27;s, is Foles any threat to run? Nope. On the other side Trubisky is. Both these offenses mirror each other coming from the Andy Reid tree.Trubisky 56 rushes 433 yards. &#x2B;29% rush dvoa.Passing ranks:Foles -5.4% dvoa. Rank #25. 67.4 qbr, rank 10Trubisky &#x2B;2.5 % dvoa. Rank #20. 72.8 qbr, rank 3

ChOdaZ · Answer

I would give the HC edge in Bears Eagles to Nagy.  I know Peterson won the SB but I wonder how much of that was his coordinators?  Frank Reich as proved this year leading the Clots, was a master at running the offense and was particularly good at 3rd down.

Vegas5Guys · Answer

Totally agree BB. Interesting to see how well it will do against ATS on the Bears game. Other 3 games are nearly Pickem spread.

undermysac · Answer

Good post.To add to coaching let&#x27;s talk about the D coordinators.Vic Fangio or Jim Scwartz?

NinjaNight · Answer

QB a wash in Chi vs Phi?!Give me Nick Foles over Trubisky 10 times out of 10

BallingLikeNE · Answer

BB I ended up teasing Ohio St and got Eagles up to &#x2B;12. Think they can at least prevent a blow out if they lose? This Nick Foles thing has been amazing though...

packersbackers · Answer

Well said BB....lets also not forget quality of kickers, both field goal kickers and punters...vastly overlooked despite so many playoff games coming down to a final kick

TravisTouchdown · Answer

add a 4tha good offensive lineand maybe a 5th: special teams

undermysac · Answer

Cody Parkey is the Bears weakest link

smacksmiter · Answer

In a vacuum, sure...I would as well...but this game is not a vacuum...there are myriads of variables that affect how "good" a QB is going to be...and the Bears and Nagy have effectively designed an offense to play to Tribusky&#x27;s strengths and attempt to downplay his weaknesses...Also, Foles has touchy ribs...one good hit and he might be out of the game...that MUST be taken into account here...This game should be a solid Bears win/cover and probable rout 70%&#x2B; of the time...

Goat_12 · Answer

I like Russel Wilson, I think he is a fine QB, but he is 2-3 on the road in the playoffs in his career, not exactly a stellar track record.

Dallas is 7-1 at home this season beating two playoff teams (13-3 Saints, and 9-7 Eagles).

Seattle is 4-4 on the road this season losing to two playoff teams (12-4 Bears, 13-3 Rams).

Home field advantage should factor into your magic "3 things that matter most"

Goat_12 · Answer

last 10 years, home team has won 60% of matches in NFC for Wild Card games.

Dogjimbo · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lancer89074]  Eagles @ Bears&#xD;&#xA;QB a wash? Gee, I think that given the experience and performance of Foles in big game situations, the edge goes to the Eagles. In all of those playoff games last year, the Eagles were the dogs...&#xD;&#xA;But I did like the thread...there is a lot of truth in your presentation...food for thought.    [/Quote]  A definite adv. there.

NinjaNight · Answer

Goat does make a good point that home field is also a very important advantage in many games

SwishSwish1234 · Answer

Such a basic way of analyzing, A few years back, A Flacco led, Harbaugh coached, Ravens team went into Foxboro and won as 9 point underdogs, The Patriots had the edge in both QB and HC yet the Ravens won, Why? Determination, Motivation, For the Pats, The AFC Championship game comes around every year, For the Ravens it's a once in a decade sort of thing, Ray Lewis' final season also.

Which teams have a determination factor? Which teams have a chip on their shoulder? Which teams have a lot more to lose if they get beat?

The Texans/Colts game is pretty equal, The Cowboys/Seahawks game is a big edge for the Cowboys, Constantly ridiculed for failing in the playoffs, Seahawks are post season regulars, Won't be the end of the world if they lose, Will build on the success of this year into next year, Over achieved with mediocre roster. Ravens/Chargers, Big edge to the Chargers, Possibly Rivers' final postseason, Haven't been in the postseason in donkeys, The Ravens have over achieved with LJ, Have a bright future, Not the end of the world if they lose etc.

YouWish · Answer

Good thread. Defense has always meant the most to me in the playoffs.

It's worth noting here some more precise rankings:

Ind away D yards per play allowed: 7th

Hou home D yards per play allowed: 18th

Total yards per game allowed: Ind 11th, Hou 12th

Opponents Points per Play: Hou 4th, Ind 11th

This to me says Hou's D is "questionably" better than Ind. Hou has the names we recognize, but Indy's D has been underrated all year, starting with their new leader, Darius Leonard.

Gonna be hard to not take Indy here..

DUNKMAN · Answer

Excellent Thread

HotRod11 · Answer

One of the most important factors everyone is missing is uniform color.12 of the past 14 super bowl winners were wearing white. Of course, it is on a 0-1 streak.Your Welcome.

garretdoherty · Answer

SwishSwish1234,your talks g like &#xA;Agree with what&#xA;you&#x2019;re saying &#xA;dallas turn&#xA;rivers turn&#xA;colts  already had successful season &#xA;narratives.

Goat_12 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by YouWish]Good thread. &#xA;:&#xA;Gonna be hard to not take Indy here..[/Quote]&#xA;I like looking at last 3 game trends as well&#xA;Opp PPG&#xA;5. IND 14.7&#xA;14. HOU 19&#xA;PPG&#xA;6. IND 28&#xA;7. HOU 26.3&#xA;Penalty yards/g&#xA;3. HOU 39.7&#xA;23. IND 60&#xA;RZ scoring % TD Only&#xA;6. IND 71.43%&#xA;28. HOU 41.67%&#xA;Opp RZ scoring % TD Only&#xA;11. IND 50%&#xA;17. HOU 57.13%&#xA;3rd down conv %&#xA;1. IND 55.56%&#xA;20. HOU 27.78%&#xA;Opp 3rd down conv %&#xA;15. IND 36.36%&#xA;25. HOU 45.65%

DoctorSuccess · Answer

Terrific thread, BB.For what it&#x27;s worth, my ratings:Chicago &#x2B;7New Orleans &#x2B;6.5Baltimore &#x2B;5 (with Lamar Jackson)/&#x2B;4 (for the season)Kansas City &#x2B;4.5Indianapolis &#x2B;4Los Angeles Rams &#x2B;3.5Los Angeles Chargers &#x2B;3Seattle &#x2B;3Houston &#x2B;2.5New England &#x2B;2Philadelphia &#x2B;1Dallas &#x2B;.5

Goat_12 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess]Terrific thread, BB.For what it&#x27;s worth, my ratings:&#xA;New England &#x2B;2[/Quote]&#xA;Ouch, no respect for the Goat, I would at least put them ahead of Seattle / Chargers.

BIGfnPOO · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lancer89074]  Eagles @ Bears&#xD;&#xA;QB a wash? Gee, I think that given the experience and performance of Foles in big game situations, the edge goes to the Eagles. In all of those playoff games last year, the Eagles were the dogs...&#xD;&#xA;But I did like the thread...there is a lot of truth in your presentation...food for thought.   [/Quote]Ditto.

When capping playoff football, three things matter most.

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