Which Line Stinks More???

Lions -3 @ Texans or
Falcons -3 @ Saints??? 

Aren't these lines short? Easy to know which are the two better teams but those lines scream fade to me. Almost like they want you to bet Lions and Falcons. 

If Texans get WRs back they can play with anyone. Short road favorites are on fire. 

If you understood how lines are created and what they are intended to do you would never ask that question 

@Buffalobob89074

 Vegas has won 57 of the last 61 months at their Sportsbooks.

They get it right for THEM.

Carry on.

I dont think the lines stink, they are exactly the same as what I made them. It's still hard to win in the NFL especially on the road. 

That being said I like Houston and will likely be playing them this week. 

I have no trust in New Orleans whatsoever and no desire to back them in this spot when everything seems to have fallen apart

@Yanasaur

 I have the line Detroit -3 as well.

Most people don't pay attention to the 2 road games in a row scenario.

Teams only win the second of back to backs 32% of the time.

Atl...not a great team

Det best team in league imo

They have gotten lucky fr.

lions -3 looks "stale" 

@Sourcheese145

 who has been lucky?

The Saints lost 7 games in a row.

They just fired their coach.

It's a revenge game for the Saints.

The Falcons have had only 3 road games this year, they won all of them.

The Saints are a divisional home dog.

I could only make a play on the Saints here, and may. Don't bother giving me any stats or trends, they don't matter when so many forces combine like this.

Lions -3 

Saints might just be that, No WRs, trading their players for the overdue rebuild. 

@undermysac

Lions -3 definitely stinks more imo

@Buffalobob89074

 Lions get another indoor game too

why are we handicapping a Lions game?

They are 33-12 against the spread the last 3 years. (73%)

Anyone who isn't picking them blindly at this point....

Saints spread + ML sprinkle

Cowboys spread + ML sprinkle

Two games I have circled for Sunday 100%

@undermysac

 I don't think revenge is a great capping factor in pro sports, I think it's a bigger deal in college. I have no stats to support this though, Opinions welcomed,

@TJZags598

 So what do you think about the saints game this week? I love Atlanta myself and NO is almost autofade at this point. Also high on LAC but model projections aren’t necessarily telling me that either of these are a great bet.

@brn2loslive2win

 I have Atlanta-New Orleans a coin flip.

numbers are very equal. I would lean Atlanta based on fact that recency bias (new Orleans best numbers were first 2 games ). I belive there are better mis-matched this week.

My strong leans so far are the NY Giants, and Minnesota. My models have Minnesota equal with Jacksonville on Offense, but the biggest gap on defense all year for my models..

I have Minnesota as the #5 ranked Defense; Jacksonville as 32.

I will look deeper into Atlanta tonight