Which style handicapper would you expect to be more successful and why?

Handicapper A - Watches delayed replays of all games without knowing the outcome, which he finds entertaining. His goal is to have watched all games by Friday morning and have teams ranked in relation to each other, used to produce his own preliminary lines. He believes that watching the games, combined with box scores, gives him a truer picture of what really happened and will result in the best possible power rankings, and therefore lines.  
 
After listening to the advice of experts, Handicapper A, if he has time, might try to make lines a week in advance when this weekend's games haven't been played yet. However, he doesn't like the fact that this has to be done using team rankings that will most assuredly change after this weekend's games, as will the sportsbook's lines change. So all the work of line determination and comparison has to be done all over again next week anyway.

Otherwise, he waits until late in the week to decide what to do after having watched all games in no particular order, and ranked all teams using the latest observations and data. In this case, nothing could even possibly be wagered before Friday at the earliest, since it takes at least until Thursday to watch all the games, plus at least another day to do the research needed to determine edges other than just rankings and line differences. If there's little compelling action to act on by then, he figures he might as well wait until Sunday morning, since the best deals are likely gone until the store MIGHT decide to have a clearance sale in his favor, with the best merchandise having already been picked over. His priority is profit, but if he can make the same profit while enjoying all the games as if live, he'd prefer both.          

Handicapper B - While Handicapper B also enjoys watching games without knowing the outcome, (as most football fans probably would), he believes he just can't afford that pleasure when the delay means bypassing Sunday night and Monday morning prices. He would never consider waiting until Friday, or even Tuesday, to look for possible mispricing. He wants to know final scores immediately to try and determine which games had the most surprising results, and therefore, where to look for overadjustments in those early lines. Perhaps he doesn't feel he needs to review stats (which don't appear online until sometime the next day anyway) or otherwise know every detail of every game, and has more confidence in using his rankings that led up to that weekend, for next weekend as well. He isn't worried that if he just waited until he finished making fully informed updated rankings, it might produce a 1.5 line difference from last week to this week for an average team. Ditto for the team's opponent, resulting in a 2 or 3 point total difference between teams. Knowing scores immediately also helps him speed up the process of analyzing spots, motivation, and all the other factors associated with producing edges which he feels has to be done anyway before wagering. In short, he's already started ranking teams and making his own lines by 4pm Sunday, and if all he has to go by are the final scores of noon games at that point, so be it. He won't enjoy the entertainment value that Handicapper A does by watching 16 games unfold as if live, but he thinks he makes more money taking chances his way. 

Which are you?

I won't say which one just yet, if either, but am considering adopting one style over the other and wanted to get people's opinions. With the lack of response, it looks like I'm thinking to hard. Silly me, I thought handicappers had to think hard. Maybe they just have a monkey like Michael Jackson's pet 'Bubbles' throwing darts at a bulletin board. 

If I had to guess Handicapper B is probably more profitable since he is the one we hear about most often. 

I'm interested about the success of Handicapper A though.  A few thoughts.  

1. How does he not know about the scores of other games if he is seeing the ticker everygame he watches and/or sees updates from other games?

2. So he stays away from all sports media including friends and family days after all the games are finished?

3. Watching a great team/offense/defense and then watching a garbage one in another game may sway and bias his outlook, don't you think?

4. Couldn't he finish watching all games in 1-2 days?  I mean bye weeks are here now so at most he will have 16 games.  Assuming he watches the condensed versions, 1 day is possible if he is free for the whole day.  Assuming he waits until Tuesday /Wednesday, he may still be able to retain prices that haven't moved as much yet but obviously would miss the early prices on Sunday night/Monday.

5. Speaking of which, why can't he choose matchups he's interested in a week in advance and then on the prior Sunday watch those interested parties games' live.  This way he can rank them in real time and still retain the early prices that same evening.  And in doing so would cut the number of games he has to watch during the week to around 12-13 games.

 

 

Reply 1 of 2  
1. The answer was included in the original post, but the post got rejected for being over 4000 characters and had to go.  He has trained his eyes to not to look at the scores at the bottom. The delayed broadcasts are condensed versions and you don't USUALLY have to listen to broadcasters talk about other games or see highlights unless they screw it up with a spoiler by announcing at the very end what another team in the division did that day. 
2. Correct. It's easy. 
3. Don't know why it would sway any biases. Notes are taken after each game. Great play is notated, as are teams that sucked. Nor is there any 'overcompensating' based on just one week. For example, Tampa Bay is doing better than any of the experts expected, both weeks. They were ranked at or near the bottom of people's pre-season power rankings. There's no huge jump up in power rankings after each of those two wins. They still aren't placed anywhere near philly.
4. Two days maybe, at 8 games per day, if he had all day and evening to devote to it. You can get burned out with it after 3 to 4 hours if you do more than just watch, like pausing the video to take notes, or write while the games unfolds without pausing. You miss a play or want to see it again, it's time to rewind, slowing the process down even more. One game plus notetaking and record keeping is minimum one hour per game. 

Reply 2 of 2 - 
5. In the three hours it takes to watch one game, he could watch 3 condensed games without being spoiled with the results of other games due to halftime highlights and announcer discussions. Plus, it's more difficult to avoid the ticker at the bottom in real time cause it stays on the screen longer. When it's one play after the other, (condensed videos are 30-40 minutes each), you're so focused on what's happening on the field and trying to keep up, the ticker is only up there a few seconds and easily avoidable when the QB is getting sacked or throwing the ball away. The action only slows down for penalties to be announced. Noon and 4 pm games begin coming available in condensed form after 8 pm eastern and can be watched in lieu of SNF. By knocking off 2 or 3 that night, yes, it brings the remaining games down to 13 or 14. Still, if you have a life and do good to get in 4 games per day, you aren't done before Wednesday at the earliest. Sunday afternoon time isn't wasn't just because the games on TV aren't being watched. They're used to get caught up with record-keeping and other spreadsheet data. There's always plenty to do. The biggest pain is that the NFL website and News feed has to be avoided since scores flash across the TOP of most every page, and news can't be followed from Sunday through Thursday, another drawback. Again, this was all addressed in the original draft that was rejected due to being over 4000 characters. Looks like this one is too. 

All good points you wrote.  So it seems like you're debating trying handicapper B or are you actively doing that right now? 

It's an interesting experiment to see which is more profitable A or B. 

Another question would be after watching and grading each team, is seeing a difference between the books odds' vs your own grades the determining factor whether you bet on a game or not?  Do you still factor in trends, matchups, intuition?  Or is it strictly odds vs your own assessments?

I'm keeping lots of data just trying to hone my skills and eventually decide what's most important. It will be offseason before I'll even have time to backtest anything and see what worked best. Line comparison is one factor, but not usually the only one, with some other stuff figured in as well, as you mentioned. Just finished looking at tonight's game. I have CLE -1 based on rankings with no other adjustments. I'd need NYJ +5 to even think about it, which is still going against my gut since Darnold didn't impress me near as much in week 2 as he did in his first pre-season game. He's still releasing the ball quickly, but the accuracy left him for some reason. I didn't need stats to figure that out, just watched him play, whereas the guy who didn't watch the game only has stats.  I'd 'feel' much better taking CLE -2, with an edge, but I'm pretty good at not letting feelings overrule principles, which for this season anyway is dogs only in the first 4 games of the season. If I didn't have that stipulation, I'd take CLE at home. The jury is still out on NYJ and taking a chance at this point. You can't erase the 48 pts in week 1. Huge dichotomy in their first two games. CLE looks like they'll be more consistent, regardless of how their season record ends up. Taylor is also unloading the ball quickly, making it an entirely different team. Norv Turner needs to stay on Cam Newtons butt with the same thing. Seems to be the only way to go these days, unless your Fitz. He's getting it down the field like Flacco has only dreamed about. Check out TB's stats for number of plays and TOP. They spanked philly's butt and then handed the ball back to them to try again. lol    

So what are your picks so far for week 3 then based on your current system?  I also only bet on teams I've watched play.  Would be interested to keep track on your progress throughout the season.  FYI I've thrown the Jets on a teaser for tonight.  Jets+16.  I know teasers aren't worth it in the long run but this early in the season teasing dogs has been easy, easy even if the juice is way too high.

Interestingly I thought Darnold also didn't play well but at the same time, they were pretty close to covering.  MIA's defense looks legit and they fooled Darnold more than once but at the same time, his Receivers did him no justice.  That play at the end of the first half should have gone for 7 pts.  Also interestingly the Dolphins and Jets are the 1 and 2 best defenses based on DVOA at the moment. 

 

Yeah at this point I don't see Cam changing his habits, I think he's just gonna double down on what's been working as opposed to getting his timing down quicker.

 

 

 

No decisions yet. Haven't finished the power rankings. I tried doing the initial line thing based on rankings after week 1 (looking for the biggest gaps compared to those early Sunday night lines), just to watch those team's games first, but I haven't even had time to keep up with line changes each day. Who knows what they are now, but initially, for what it's worth which isn't much in my view, it showed ARI with a 4.5 pt gap. (they were giving them +5 when I only had them at .5), then they had the NYG at +3 when I had them at +6.7 with more adjustments to be made. Four other games were between 1.5 and 3 pts different from mine. The rest were even less than that.

It was both scary and frustrating to see how close my week 1 lines were to the books, with no games even being played yet. I worked my butt off between the end of pre-season and week 1 coming up with initial rankings and they were spot on, though I usually have many teams change slightly each week, resulting in just a point or two difference from where they were. 

The main advantage I see to watching every game is identifying consistency or lack thereof. With only two games down, a record of 1-1 would tell me next to nothing if I didn't watch the games. Which means I'd feel like I knew next to nothing about half the league, or whatever it comes out to. But the pros somehow manage to do it. I saw where Teddy Covers was something like 4-0 last week, or week 1. He claims to be a 'watcher' but he's where I first got the idea of doing lines a week in advance using what will soon be old rankings, in order to jump on early lines. I heard it said from someone else as well.  The work Teddy does in that regard makes Sat and Sun his busiest days, where for me so far, it's the easiest. There's a good video on youtube where he talks about it. How anybody keeps up with all the college teams is beyond me. Agree or disagree, here's the link... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u63O7LDpkE0

 

Ya, I was looking at the Cards but haven't seen them at all so not going to play that.  I also like Teddy Covers, he swayed me last week with the Chiefs even after all the trends and stats favored the Steelers winning that one.  It does seem like he does his homework.  I don't touch CFB for that very reason, don't have time to do any research and it cuts off a day I like to spend on NFL study.   

 

I think week 1 is always a crapshoot even for vegas.  Preseason can lie to you easy (the Browns and Kizer last preseason for starters).

 

Will be interesting to see how it goes the deeper we get into the season when more game tape exists.  Speaking of which the deeper we get, I'm assuming you'll have to go back and rewatch some games or actually your notes will come in handy.  Yeah will be interesting to see how it plays out for you.  What are you looking at in terms of win percentage for this to be worth it after this season?

I don't rewatch games. I'm thinking a minimum 57% for it to be worth it, and that's only if the size of the bets were to increase, and that's only if I moved to a live sportsbook town. Fast food work at minimum wage would pay better for my time than anything I'd risk now until I prove I can do it over at least one season. I'm going to set 'totals' as my priority after week 4, and that doesn't take me near as much time cause I've already done my research going back 20 years. (It took months to accumulate all the data.) I backtested a season's worth using the final stats for the year, but that's not the same as using the stats at your disposal as the weeks progress, which I don't expect to be as good, and which I'm going to try more consistently this season, ALL season, win or lose. If you could only predict NOW how those final rankings would end up by the end of the year, a profit is all but guaranteed based on the one year I backtested.

As for sides, the further we go into the season, the more there is to research, such as common opponents, revenge games, etc. which I haven't even thought about yet. Some people go back years to look over that stuff, but the big guns have their computer programs that can tell you what a record is between two teams going way back, including home, away, which stadium, etc. I could use a computer program in a bad way just to make things easier as it stands now. Sometimes I think pro handicappers want to make the process look complicated and time consuming so that you'll agree, throw in the towel, and pay them to do the work. I've thought about it, but there's no way to really confirm someone's record before subscribing to them first, and at this points it's not worth $1000+ for me to get 17 weeks worth of NFL picks, since even if I won, there's not enough cash on the line to make a profit. That's for people who can make up the $1000+ in one week. If the pros records are as great as they claim, I don't know why anybody with bucks to put up wouldn't do it.  I've noticed newsletters that conveniently leave out the years where they lost. If you were figured in those years, it paints a completely different story. One well known newsletter told me their records of their best picks over the phone and it was abysmal.   

P.S. - The NYG numbers I gave definitely would need to change after watching them play Dallas. They've been downgraded. I'm held out longer than anybody to give up on Manning, but I have. He's not only past his prime, he'll never recover no matter what other weapons you surround him with. Beckham and Barkley weren't any better than most anyone else in the league at their positions in that game. I should have known the Cowboys would be pissed enough to cover after losing that horrible game against CAR. Plus they were at home and had motivation not to go 0-2 against a division opponent. I didn't trust that the trio of Manning, Beckham, and Barkley wouldn't eat their lunch. Now we know. 

 

Would be nice to incorporate Blockchain tech with some of these handicapper's picks.   doing that would give the public a verifiable, immutable database that shows their picks for all of time.    Then the ones who actually have a winning record could probably easily get funding/investment.

Eli killed me that game but since I've been doing teasers I still covered but man Manning is finished I agree.  Zero mobility to even shift a little bit in the pocket.  The cowboys pass rush is big time it seems or are the Giants OL that bad?  I'm looking at teasing the Cowboys this week against another ugly OL in Seattle.  What are you thinking about in that game? I remember Dak walking into Questfield and winning a few years ago I believe.

My numbers have SEA at 2 point dogs, but it's similar to GB/WAS in that my number says to take WAS but my gut says GB. Dilemma. I was 4-1 week 2 and would have been 5-0 except that I added a 'gut pick' using my numbers of MIN -1.3 even though it wasn't enough of an edge to play, according to the system I'm using. I missed being 5-0 by 1 point. It could be an omen saying "stick with the system, idiot," but how do you stick with a system that says WAS is the side to take after the way they played last weekend, even at home? That one bothers me more than SEA at home since DAL is coming off a divisional win in a high profile game. I don't much care for SEA either. 

Watching games serves no useful purpose.

Didn't read the thread but I would go with handicapper b assuming he is able to accurately predict line moves. Only real way to beat the game. Lots of people can watch games and have a good understanding if what they are seeing but if you can't beat the closing number your no better than the other 99%

Speaking of recognizing line moves, some books allow you to see (assuming they're honest) which sides the money is coming most heavily in on. I'm not sure exactly what the formula is, and I may be saying this wrong, but it appears to be saying that 85% of money coming in is taking Team A, while 15% is taking Team B. I don't know if that's just since the last line change, or total cumulative since the first numbers were released. Right or wrong, (correct me if I'm wrong), but if you're leaning toward going with Team B, you're safe for the time being in that the numbers won't go against you anytime soon since if anything, the book would be making it more compelling to add some incentive to the side you're favoring anyway, which is Team B, the 15% side. Only the other hand, if you were favoring Team A, the info would suggest that you need to act now before they make the odds worse for you. If anything I just said is wrong, say so. 
Another thing I've heard more than once is that once a line you're watching (but haven't been willing to act on so far) goes against you, walk away. I don't know if I buy into that one. If my numbers show I have a several point edge but not yet ready, and they shave a half point off my side, I'm not sure I'd walk away, especially if the line is larger than most. Have you head this, and if so, how important do you think it is? Seems to me you could go ahead with it, given the odds that the half point you missed out aren't going to make the difference in win or lose. Unfortunately, I haven't watched lines and kept records often enough to know if they creep along, 1/2 point at a time, or if they can jump several points at once. All I know is, I saw CAR at just -3 as of Tues, then come back Sat. and it's -7. If you know of a website that gives a running history of line movements throughout the week so I don't have to keep written tabs on it, let me know. I've heard of lines heading in one direction, then reversing back, but haven't seen it actually happen.   

The style that wins?