Who is Joe Public on ?

Is Joe P on Joe B ?

John Q Public

I doubt it

John Doe Public aka John Dopey. 

Cin 56% @ +4

LAR 44% @ -4

out of currently 7723 people polled 

these are silly… just being polled doesn’t mean they’re actually laying their money down… underdogs always get love in these polls - everyone wants to be edgy

everyone is the public, this is the Super Bowl… there is no edge. No syndicate that knows bengals +4 is the lock of the century… throw your money in and pray… this is the worst game of the year to bet and it always has been - so many intangibles you can’t cap, yet no one can lay off because it’s the last game of the year 

Best of luck with whichever side of the coin you choose.

with all that being said rams win by 20 ;)

John Elway got smoked in his very first SB.

Not overwhelming yet but public sentiment is with the Bengals. It's a great story with Joe Cool leading the way. The numbers guys and the so-called smart money is on the Rans so far this week, and especially on the moneyline.

An interesting week awaits us.

Bengals is the Public Play so far.....

Bengals is the Public Play so far.....

I bet on a small conferences college hoop game every year. Every blue moon there is a good angle, like KC's O-line being decimated against Tampa Bay.

Action Network was showing today on 34K bets:

% of bets     - Rams 57% and on

% of money - Rams  76%...

seems like Covers leans Bengals...the public doesn't wade in until the weekend before the game. 

The most recent pie chart displayed on Daily Wager had CIN with 70% of the money (because Caesars William Hill booked Mattress Mack's massive wager), but only 47% of the tickets.

@ActionMagnet

 You are. I am. We all are lol

Does it matter?

Rams ...Every young dude at my work loves LA .....They say 

It's a home game 

Bengals are lucky just to be here 

Qb was sacked 9 times vs the Titans 

Chiefs lost the game after being up 22-3 , more than the Bengals won it .

NFL wants LA to win , so the fans support the team .

@pud$

 Excellent read my brother...  

enjoy 'the' game, may you prosper

Fwiw, the spread opened 4. It then ticket up to 4.5, and went back to 4. You can get a -4 at -110, or even cheaper.  Some books still have the +4.5 but it's -115 or more.

Bet % is 57% on the rams ats(if those site's #'s are real, no way to know). So it seems that the books split is in their comfort zone as of now, but honestly  could move to a conventional 4 and even test out 3.5. Early line movement suggested more bets or $ on the Rams. Going back to 4 says that some like the Bengals with the hook on the 4 some what. 

Fwiw, the total opened 49.5. Most books went to 49 shortly after and some went to 48.5. Betonline is the only book that opened 49.5 and went to 50. They went back to 49 and now sit at 48.5 as most other books.

Bet % is 52% on the over. Once again I think the books are comfortable where they are at with the total. I would speculate that sharp $ is on the under here because of the drop to 48.5. Who knows who liked the over at Betonline so early, but they did.

To cap this Super Bowl  vs the Rams and Bengals, I think that you have to really dig into the matchup and personal with a slight luck factor of guessing how the game plays out.

By the #'s and analytics I feel like it's right where both #'s should be. We can't really get an edge going off of models and #'s, and bet percentages. 

As far as guessing how the game plays out and what both coaches "should do", I'm certain that McVay has to run early and run often. Stay away from the middle of the field as both safeties for Bengals are great. The Bengals don't blitz much at all, so the Rams should face 7 man boxes for the most part. It would be smart for McVay to run vs a lighter box and vs a team that blitzes infrequently. Because Stafford strives vs the blitz, but not so much vs regular zone/man coverage dropping 4 or 5 or more.

This would help explain the liking of the under early on. As running would drain the clock, and if successful on the Rams part, it should provide long grinding drives. I've said the last 3 weeks, that the Bengals opponents got pass happy in the playoffs. The Bengals want that. 

What McVay does is yet unknown. 

I believe that the Rams are vulnerable to the deep middle. Their safeties are compromised in the passing game. Remember that the Niners with Jimmy G didn't pose a great threat in the passing game. The Rams brought Eric Weddle down to the line of scrimmage on multiple downs, over 50% to stop the Niners rushing attack. He had 9 tackles. And they did so successfully. You can't do that vs Burrow cause the kid can flat our sling.

If the Rams choose to blitz as well, that could be a death sentence as Burrow has been great vs the blitz.  If they don't blitz, the Bengals could try to run.

I have a gut feeling that the Bengals and the over come through if their gameplan works. And I think if the Rams cover their lay, the under comes through. That's not correlated under traditional terms.

Biggest problem for me, is I don't know what kind of approach the coaching will make(I know what I'd do), and this I believe will play on the total and spread. 

There's a question that we very often forget to ask ourselves. And that is: "What coach has fucked up the least in the playoffs?" Believe it or not, this might be the most important part of a handicap. 

So if I were to answer that question, keeping in mind that there's a spread at hand, I'd say Zac Taylor. This alone gravitates me to the Bengals +4 with ML in mind.

You mean Canadian and American?

 reading comprehension had never been one of your strongest attributes:

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/betregal---sb-56-prop-challenge-103611154

Yo mama

@undermysac

 There's a question that we very often forget to ask ourselves. And that is: "What coach has fucked up the least in the playoffs?" Believe it or not, this might be the most important part of a handicap.