Why I feel the Jets have major value tonight

I have decided to post my thoughts on Covers this NFL Season to hopefully spark some conversation and provide myself with a way to track my thinking and perhaps improve my approach by hearing and reading what you all have to say. I do not bet pre season often, but when I do I make sure I am not betting based solely on the information, but betting on the odds. The NFL is so huge across America with information spilling out of every nook and cranny in the media, bettors get swayed and influenced by every word said, printed or tweeted. It is impossible to be a regular everyday bettor or a weekend bettor for that matter and stay on top of all the information in order to provide it to be profitable as the sole method of handicapping. What we can stay on top of as bettors is are the odds and what they truly mean, especially in pre season. Lets look at the game tonight between New York and Houston. I bet mainly at Pinnacle but also at 5Dimes, the moneylines at either book are New York +141 and Houston -156. Houston’s true odds of winning are 61.20% or 61 wins (outright) out of 100 or if you prefer a smaller scale - just higher then 6 out of 10 . What is so hard for bettors to wrap their minds around is that this is only true considering the game is played with the exact same factors. Teams would not be able to adjust or make changes, in your mind you must simulate this very game 100 times to come up with a true opinion on the odds. If you were considering betting Houston tonight, in order to get the true value, you must agree with that fact that if this very game were played out a 100 times the Texans would have to win 61. I am not sure there are any logical bettors out there that can agree with the fact that in this situation the Texans are 11 games better then the Jets. I truly believe that this game is a coin flip at worst for New York, if not a game or two the other way. With this being said I find that there is 41 cents (give or take your price) of value in the Jets tonight while the Texans are on the short end of the value stick by at least 50 cents. Betting against the line and not the information, the clear cut bet tonight is New York outright.

For those of you that rely heavily on the information at hand for betting, be weary of the media reports especially in pre season. Nobody is talking about the Texans. They are not a big public team. It does not take a genius to recognize this. New York is a major team, a major contender that always swirls around in the media. Being from such a big sports market their problems are always magnified. Just a couple hours before the line move from 2.5 to 3 this afternoon on the point spread and from 134 to 141 on the money line, reports flurried that indicated a possible coach and quarterback controversy. As usual an over reaction both by bettors and fans caused a stir. Does no one realize that almost every quarterback in history has at one point been a little miffed at their head coach? Its football guys, lets settle down. What is the real problem is Houston’s secondary. There was a reason why defensive free agents did not flock to Houston, because there is simply no one there. Everyone is pointing the fingers are the lack of talent on the Jets offense. Once again, bigger market, bigger information stream. It is no secret all the starters will play a series or two at most, then it is all to the backups. Its week one in preseason, everyone is nervous, everyone is going to make mistakes. Unless you are Jesus Christ himself, there is no way you can predict these games based on playing time and talent level at second and third string. If you want a gamble, go play three card monte on your street corner, why are you throwing money away when you can make smart decisions. Bet the odds and put your money where it has the best chance of win and puts yourself in a favorable position. That position tonight is the Jets on the moneyline. They are a better team all around and they are a much better bet when it comes to finding better odds in the line and putting your money in the right spot.

This is not a big bet for me but it is a bet which I intend to win.

New York Jets +141.

BahamaJack

Another thing to think about is this. How many people on here can tell you how much an inside number at their local casino pays on roulette. How many people here can tell you what rolling a six or an eight pays in craps. Greater then 95%? Now if I ask how what are the odds on a -140 money line what would the response be from 95% of people? $140 to win $100? A reply which has nothing to do with the question? The point I am trying to make is to play to maximize your odds of winning. For every ten trends you could of found for Houston, I could of found for New York. For every ten news stories you could find for Houston, I could find for New York. For every "CONSENSUS" percentage that are generated from god knows where you can find saying 55% on Houston, I can find saying 55% on New York. Unless you are directly involved with this league and have your OWN source of information that isn’t available to the direct public to interpret, chew up and spit out. What are you really basing your bets on?

Playing the odds does not change. Handicapping the line, not trying to pick a winner does not change. There are no lies in the line. It is all math, and it is all the truth. If you can find value in the line and learn to handicap this way, you won't win every game, but you will be consistent and increase your chance of winning by making smarter decisions. Tonight was a dropped catch away from a +140 underdog cashing in. I lost but I do not feel bad about it. I felt good about my bet and although the result was not one I wanted, I got my first play of the season down and I can only go up from here.

0-1 (-1.00)

BahamaJack