Wolf's NFL Football Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups)

2018 Wolf's NFL Football Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season. I will be posting my picks and selections here throughout the year and providing as much information as possible. I rarely post totals and mostly do sides with the occasional ML and sometimes a few props. Everything will be tracked on these forums. The same goes for College Football in the CFB Forum.

Good luck to everyone this season!

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Thursday, September 6

Philadelphia Eagles -1 (10 Units)

The 2018 NFL Season has finally arrived and nobody really knows what to expect in the opener. In the past the narrative has been to fade the Super Bowl Champions in their first game (usually on a Thursday Night) of the season. The Patriots got destroyed at home last season as a -8 point home favorite in the season opener. However, looking at the years before that, Denver won their opener in 2017 and the Patriots won their opener by 7 in 2016 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So the narrative is not always an accurate one. Who out there actually trusts the Atlanta Falcons? I sure don't. This seems like an easy one. Defending Super Bowl Champs on a huge Super Bowl hangover, without their MVP candidate QB (for the time being), line of only -1 and prime for the picking right? Not so fast. Atlanta went 0-4 SU in the pre-season which really doesn't mean anything but it also doesn't exactly promote a winning attitude although they did the same in 2017 and won their first three games of the regular season. Keep in mind here that Altanta went 2-6 ATS on the road in 2017 with their only wins coming at Detroit and Seattle. This is the Eagles we're talking about. 3rd best rush defense in the NFL in 2017.

The Philadelphia Eagles are being doubted by quite a few people out there but did everyone not learn their lesson in 2017? For those keeping track, the Eagles come into this game on a 6-1 SU run their last seven season openers. Sure they are without star QB Carson Wentz who is not ready to go just yet but QB Nick Foles is an experienced QB and he proved in the playoffs that he can win at this level and manage/lead a team of very good players. The receiving corps is a bit depleted for the Eagles but again when you have a deep and solid roster all around you usually find ways to win. The line for this one is all over the place. It started with the Eagles opening at -4 and as of earlier today it was at Atlanta -1 but it's back to the Eagles side a few hours before gametime and I have a feeling this game is going to come down to the final possession.

Alright the good stuff now. 1) You can never trust Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. 2) The whole Carson Wentz and Nick Foles is not that good story is playing games with the line. The Eagles will be just fine. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games they have played versus NFC opponents. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 September games. The Falcons on the other hand went 2-6 ATS on the road last season (as previously mentioned) and are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in Philadelphia (home of Matt Ryan). In the last 17 meetings between the two teams, Atlanta has covered only 5 of those games. Yikes. The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and I am going with the defending Super Bowl Champions in this one.

Trend of the Game: In the last 17 meetings, Atlanta has covered the spread only 5 times.

Philadelphia 24, Atlanta 20

more to come...

Flava. Flav. Is a LEGEND IN MY BOOKS!!

With you brother!!

And yes game did come down to final possession. Good start to the season. Congrats to all winners tonight.

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Sunday, September 9

Buffalo-Baltimore 'UNDER' 39.5 (10 Units)

This seems like the obvious play here doesn't it? As much as I want to back the Ravens, in what I predict to be a low-scoring game, I just can't do it. So instead I will go with the Bills struggling to score points against a Ravens defense that is most likely to be the most popular in DFS and Fantasy leagues today. The Bills are starting QB Nathan Peterman (yep that same guy who threw 5 interceptions in Week 11 of last season) and he really doesn't have much of a supporting cast to work with. I have a feeling the Bills will use RB LeSean McCoy quite a bit in this one but what good will that do against the #9 ranked run defense from 2017 of the Ravens which returns all their key front seven players. The Bills Offensive Line is a huge disaster and anyone who follows McCoy knows he is more efficient at home (5 of his 22 touchdowns the last two seasons have been on the road). I don't see the Bills scoring more than 6-9 points.

The Ravens should have a field day running the ball because the Bills couldn't stop the run in 2017 but they did make some additions to their D-Line which should solidify things a bit. I expect a heavy dose of RB Alex Collins in this one because the Bills secondary is actually pretty good and QB Joe Flacco doesn't have many weapons to move the ball around to. His options in the passing game are WR John Brown, WR Michael Crabtree and WR Willie Snead who pretty much disappeared in the pre-season and is not a threat. The Bills secondary as mentioned is very good and they won't allow any big plays in this game and will probably force a few turnovers of their own.

Take a look back at the last five seasons and you will see that the Bills Week 1 games have all gone UNDER making that a 5-0 'UNDER' run in the first week of the regular season. You can also throw into the mix the Ravens 4-0 UNDER run in Week 1 of the season the last four NFL seasons to make this all that more enticing. The UNDER is also 7-3 in Buffalo's last 10 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played on turf. 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have gone UNDER the number and 4 of the last 5 played in Baltimore.

Trend of the Game: UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Baltimore 16, Buffalo 9

more to come...

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New Orleans Saints -10 (10 Units)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a disaster at just about every position and it starts with QB Jameis Winston being out for who knows how much time as he deals with continuous off-field issues. QB Ryan Fitpatrick is not a bad replacement but his only real option to keep this game close here is WR Mike Evans but Evans was completely inefficient in both 2017 meetings with the Saints and the Saints have somehow, believe it or not, upgraded their defense in the off-season with the additions of CB Patrick Robinson and S Kurt Coleman to a #5 ranked pass defense in 2017. Expect some big plays from the Saints Defense.

Okay so how is Tampa Bay going to stop the Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas combo in this game? The Buccaneers run defense has been among the league worst the last two seasons and they most certainly have not been able to stop Kamara who dropped lines of 16/152/2 and 15/128/1 in their two meetings in 2017. The Tampa Bay secondary is a complete mess and Thomas should have a huge day going up against the Doubtful Brent Grimes who is tiny compared to Thomas. There are so many options for Brees and Sean Payton in this game. It's indoors, it's at home and it's against a brutal defense that is somewhat depleted.

This is a heavy public play but it's Week 1 and I'm not worried about that. Even Vegas has yet to adjust. The Saints come into this 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games versus NFC South opponents and Tampa Bay has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 11 games played in the opening week of the NFL Regular Season. The Home Team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings so if the Saints are going to win big it's here and Tampa Bay is only 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in New Orleans. The Saints should have no problems winning this game big.

Trend of the Game: The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 versus NFC South opponents.

New Orleans 36, Tampa Bay 13

more to come...

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Cincinnati Bengals +1 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

I missed the +2 or better on this one but I'm still all over the Bengals opening the season with a win on the road against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. There is no talent on this Colts defense. They cut their top pass rusher from last season and have the worst pre-season ranked secondary in the NFL. I expect QB Andy Dalton and his plethora of WR/RB options to absolutely destroy and exploit the Colts and their defensive issues in this one. RB Joe Mixon comes into this season as a big time receiving threat and has dropped some 15-20 pounds in the off-season and the Colts main linebackers are all playing with lingering injuries from the pre-season. WR AJ Green has always been a better road versus home receiver and now that TE Tyler Eifert is healthy, the Colts D is in huge trouble.

On the flip side of things, QB Andrew Luck is finally back but he faces a brutal matchup in his first regular season game back (missed entire 2017 season). The Bengals are going to be all over a very depleted and weak Colts offensive line and the Colts will be held to small dink and dunk plays in the passing game. I read somewhere that of the 41 passing attempts made by Luck in the pre-season, only 1 went more than 20 yards and his 'average depth of target' was only 5.7 as opposed to a career 8,4. He's still not right. The only real weapon in the passing game for Indy is WR TY Hilton but he's got CB William Jackson III on him in this one. Jackson was the 2nd highest rated CB in the passer rating category out of 121 CB's in 2017. The Colts will struggle the entire game.

The Bengals come into this game on a 5-0 ATS run versus AFC Conference opponents and they are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games played in the month of September. This is a team you can only back at this time of the year. The Bengals are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games coming into this. There is probably no worse Week 1 team in the NFL regardless of health, talent or situation, than the Colts who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 1 of the season. The Bengals have been pretty bad in Indy in recent years but this year is a bit different. They're healthier and more loaded than they've been since 2015 I would say.

Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 1 of the season.

Cincinnati 34, Indianapolis 10

more to come...

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Cleveland Browns +3.5 (10 Units)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably one of the worst road teams when it comes to being favored by 3+ points over the Tomlin/Big Ben years. I don't have the exact stats but they are all below league average when it comes to winning and covering the spread in those situations. We all know the Steelers are going to run a high tempo and pass first offense in this game with the whole RB LeVeon Bell mess still ongoing. Big Ben and WR Antonio Brown will no doubt put up huge numbers in this game. That could also be a problem is the predicted rainfall holds up and the Steelers are forced to run more than pass. Regardless of weather the Steelers will get theirs but it won't be enough.

This is the best Cleveland Browns team in a long time but they are still the Cleveland Browns and that is why I am keeping this a low-unit play. That and the weather should play a factor in this game. What I know about this matchup is that the Browns at least keep it close for the most part. With RB Carlos Hyde now in the mix and the Steelers being horrendous against the run when Ryan Shazier is out of the lineup, this could be a perfect day for the Browns to control the tempo, keep possession of the ball and make the Steelers pay for their lack of improvements on the defensive side of the ball in the off-season.

Look no further than the last three meetings between these teams, all Pittsburgh wins but by 3, 4 and 3 points. Pittsburgh averages almost 7 points less per game on the road than they do at home under Mike Tomlin and Big Ben so if the Browns are ever going to pull this off, this is the place to do it. I don't have much good to say about the Browns on the ATS front but the Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus AFC Conference opponents and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Browns will...win. Or at least almost win.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their last seven Week 1 games.

Pittsburgh 21, Cleveland 20

more to come...

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Denver Broncos -3 (10 Units)

The safe play in this one is probably the Money Line but I'm not about that life and I'm going with the spread instead. Always hard to go against the Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin combination but what you need to keep in mind is that this game is going to be played at very high altitude and that's always very difficult for teams in the first few weeks of the season. The Seahawks have a very questionable running game right now with RB Chris Carson and RB Rashaad Penny going up against the #3 ranked run defense in the NFL last season that returns the same front seven. Russ won't have a choice to throw the ball against a Broncos secondary that is not what it used to be but the front seven of Denver is going to cause issues all game.

The Denver Broncos are 31-3 SU in their last 34 home games played in Weeks 1 and 2 of the regular season. Please let that register and be proof enough that playing in Denver early in the season is next to impossible and always tough to do. QB Case Keenum is now the man in Denver and he gets one of the best slot receivers in the league in WR Emmanuel Sanders who should topple 100 receiving yards today. The Seahawks defense lost just about everyone of any significance with Michael Bennet, Cliff Avril, Kam Chancellor, Sheldon Richardson, Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell gone. KJ Wright is out and Earl Thomas is still holding out. I think the Broncos are going to make some big plays in this game and should move at ease against this defense.

So again in case you missed it, Denver front seven on D are still here, the Seahawks are missing every single member of their dominant defense of the last 5-7 years and the Broncos have won 31 of their last 34 home games in Week 1 and 2 of the regular season. The Broncos are actually 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in September and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played in Week 1 of the regular season. Seattle is always a slow starting team and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games. I am going with the experience Keenum and Denver's edge at home in September.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 31-3 SU in their last 34 home games in Week 1 or 2.

Denver 24, Seattle 13

more to come...

I'm liking it, was already on Buff/Balt. Under love that play (Balt. does seem like the obvious play but the Under is better) and the Saints to finally BLOW OUT their division rival!! Let's get it!!

Man salvaged a brutal start to the day with the Bengals making that comeback!

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Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (10 Units)

Throwing this one in late. The way things have gone for the big public faves today, I would be a fool to not go against the Panthers and their 72% backing by the public. The road team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and the Panthers without LB Thomas Davis (suspended) is a big deal and I think RB Ezekiel Elliott is going to have a huge day!

Cowboys come in 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games. I just don't see the Panthers winning this game.

Trend of the Game: Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

Dallas 28, Carolina 24

more to come...

Like anything for the last game 

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Chicago Bears +6.5 (10 Units)

Chicago-Green Bay 'UNDER' 45 (10 Units)

more to come...

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Monday, September 10

Detroit Lions -7 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

The history of new starting QB's in the NFL is not very good but it's also not always bad.  Nonetheless this is the youngest QB in the NFL history making a start tonight and I think the gameplan is going to be very conservative for the Jets. QB Sam Darnold had 45 pass attempts in the pre-season and only 1 was for more than 20 yards. The rest were in the slot. If you think for one second this type of approach is going to work against the gun slinging Lions, you have another thing coming. The Jets do have a shot to keep this somewhat low scoring and I think Darnold will have a good completion rate but it won't be enough against this Matt Patricia defense.

The Detroit Lions and their passing attack have a tremendous mathup tonight. The Jets pass defense ranked 31st and 22nd in the NFL the last two seasons and they struggle big time against deep ball QB's. QB Matthew Stafford is going to have a ton of time to throw the ball tonight because the Jets have no pass rush to speak of and WR Golden Tate has a tremendous matchup with Buster Skrine in this one (Skrine allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers in 2017 and is one of the league leaders every season in missed tackles). I think the Lions offense is going to be unstoppable.

If you look back at the 2016 and 2017 seasons the Jets went 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games and now they start the youngest QB in NFL history...on the road. The Detroit Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games. I just don't see how the Jets can keep up. Two offenses from different planers and the Lions should roll.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Games.

Detroit 31, NY Jets 13

more to come...

Good start! Will be posting a play on the late game at halftime.

Wats the pick for tonight 

Post early pls 

Any leans for tonight