Record: 3-5-1 ATS (-$7000.50)
Have not posted here in weeks (since Week 2). Forgettable day in college yesterday. Units usually posted at 10 a pop which is $100 per unit. Bigger plays will be for more units. Good luck to everyone!
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Sunday, November 4
Cleveland Browns +7.5 (10 Units)
The Kansas Chiefs have to look sketchy at some point this season don't they? This could be the game. First and foremost we are mid-season right now and when the public likes a play at a clip of 70% or more you have to raise alarm bells. Well some 77% of the betting public likes the Chiefs in this game and I'm going against it. No need to discuss the Chiefs offense. We all know what they are about. Let's talk about the Browns defense. Cleveland retained DC Gregg Williams in all the chaos of this past week and his defense has allowed home opponents to complete 51.4% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The secondary has 7 interceptions in four home games and are allowing opponents to convert only 27.5% of the time on third downs and allowing visiting teams to score touchdowns only 50.0% of the time in the Red Zone in their last three at home. Kansas City averages 9.0 penalties per road games for 75.7 penalty yards per game in their last three away from home. Not good.
So can the Cleveland Browns score and keep up in this one? We've already established that their defense is going to make some stops and going to make some plays. THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS HAVE ALLOWED 34.3 POINTS PER GAME IN THEIR LAST THREE AWAY GAMES! That's insane as a 7.5 point favorite on the road. In those games the Chiefs have been gashed for 5.0 yards per carry on the ground and their secondary has allowed 65.6% of the passes they have faced to be completed for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The last three road QB's they have faced have had a QB Rating of 139.7 on average. QB Baker Mayfield will have a chance to make some huge plays in this game. The Red Zone has been a problem for the Browns (see the Steelers game last week) but Kansas City allows their last three road opponents to score touchdowns 76.9% of the time in the Red Zone their last three games. This game comes down to the end.
These two teams don't see each other that often and times have really changed on both sides since their last meeting in 2015 but it's hard to look past the fact that the Cleveland Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and the UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in those last five meetings (the Browns every time). It's hard to go against the Chiefs I get but they've had November issues in the past going 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. The Browns are usually a team to avoid ATS wise but they are a very interesting 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a game where they allowed more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game (Steelers had 168). The Browns have nothing to lose here, everyone expects them to get crushed. Kansas City's defense has been horrendous on the road so I'm going Browns with the UPSET OF THE YEAR!
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.
Cleveland 35, Kansas City 31
more to come...
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