1) Over 5.5 sacks... the steelers get after the QB and they also have the worst OLine in a long time.. need i say more
2) Hines Ward's first catch under 10.5 yards-- most times this year they get hines ward involved early and usually it is on a bubble screen on first down to get his hands on the ball. Should go for 4-8 yards. Dont see him breaking it for more.
3) Ben over 1.5 yards on his first carry... The only way this goes under is on a QB sneak on 3rd or 4th and short. They hesitate to do this, however, in fear of him getting hurt. He will scramble for over 2 on his first carry after escaping the pocket.
I love these three and wouldnt be at all surprised to see all three hit.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
1) Over 5.5 sacks... the steelers get after the QB and they also have the worst OLine in a long time.. need i say more
2) Hines Ward's first catch under 10.5 yards-- most times this year they get hines ward involved early and usually it is on a bubble screen on first down to get his hands on the ball. Should go for 4-8 yards. Dont see him breaking it for more.
3) Ben over 1.5 yards on his first carry... The only way this goes under is on a QB sneak on 3rd or 4th and short. They hesitate to do this, however, in fear of him getting hurt. He will scramble for over 2 on his first carry after escaping the pocket.
I love these three and wouldnt be at all surprised to see all three hit.
I am not sure about #1... I could see how this one might go under... But I also wonder if ARZ will be able to go after Rothlisberger to put this one over..
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I like #2...
I am not sure about #1... I could see how this one might go under... But I also wonder if ARZ will be able to go after Rothlisberger to put this one over..
#3 caught my attention and made me wonder if quarterback sacks count against their rushing total. Thorpe mentions the quaterback must be out of the pocket to count towards a rush. My initial thinking was that sacks, in the pockt or not, count against a quaterbacks rushing total. I did some research and still couldn't get a staright answer from wikipedia. I would check with whom you are placing the bet and see if sacks count towards rushing totals. If sacks do count towards rushing totals, IMO he will be sacked before he runs for 1.5 yards. The only other time he would rush would be on goal line inside the 1 yd line of on 3rd or 4th and inches in the right situation. Other than that I think he would be wise to throw the ball away. Anyway, GL either way you go. Below is the definition I got off wikipedia.
All-purpose yards or All-purpose yardage is an American football and Canadian football statistical measure. It is virtually the same as the statistic that some football leagues refer to as combined net yards.[1] In the game of football, progress is measured by advancing the football towards the opposing team's goal line. Progress can be made during play by the offensive team by advancing the ball from the its point of progress at the start of play known as the line of scrimmage or by the defensive team after taking possession of the football via a change of possession (such as punt, kickoff, interception, punt block, blocked kick or fumble). When the offensive team advances the ball by rushing the football, the player who carries the ball is given credit for the difference in progress measured in rushing yards. When the offensive team advances the ball by pass reception, the player who catches the reception is given credit for the difference in progress measured in reception yards. Although the ball may also be advanced by penalty these yards are not considered all-purpose yards. Progress lost via quarterback sacks are classified variously. Thus, all-purpose yards is a combined total of rushing yards, receiving yards, and all forms of return yards only. Some sources do not specify which types of return yards count toward this total because the most common forms of return yards are kick and punt return yards.[2]
Football associations differ on their own specific definitions of the term. The National Collegiate Athletic Association, for example, defines the term as "the combined net yards gained by rushing, receiving, interception (and fumble) returns, punt returns, kickoff returns and runbacks of field goal attempts. All-purpose yardage does not include forward passing yardage" (at pg. 206).[3] The National Football League (NFL), however, defines combined net yards as "Rushing, receiving, interception returns, punt returns, kickoff returns, and fumble returns".[4] Neither of these totals makes clear how they record yards from onside kick recoveries, blocked punts recovered behind the line of scrimmage, and missed field goal returns.
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#3 caught my attention and made me wonder if quarterback sacks count against their rushing total. Thorpe mentions the quaterback must be out of the pocket to count towards a rush. My initial thinking was that sacks, in the pockt or not, count against a quaterbacks rushing total. I did some research and still couldn't get a staright answer from wikipedia. I would check with whom you are placing the bet and see if sacks count towards rushing totals. If sacks do count towards rushing totals, IMO he will be sacked before he runs for 1.5 yards. The only other time he would rush would be on goal line inside the 1 yd line of on 3rd or 4th and inches in the right situation. Other than that I think he would be wise to throw the ball away. Anyway, GL either way you go. Below is the definition I got off wikipedia.
All-purpose yards or All-purpose yardage is an American football and Canadian football statistical measure. It is virtually the same as the statistic that some football leagues refer to as combined net yards.[1] In the game of football, progress is measured by advancing the football towards the opposing team's goal line. Progress can be made during play by the offensive team by advancing the ball from the its point of progress at the start of play known as the line of scrimmage or by the defensive team after taking possession of the football via a change of possession (such as punt, kickoff, interception, punt block, blocked kick or fumble). When the offensive team advances the ball by rushing the football, the player who carries the ball is given credit for the difference in progress measured in rushing yards. When the offensive team advances the ball by pass reception, the player who catches the reception is given credit for the difference in progress measured in reception yards. Although the ball may also be advanced by penalty these yards are not considered all-purpose yards. Progress lost via quarterback sacks are classified variously. Thus, all-purpose yards is a combined total of rushing yards, receiving yards, and all forms of return yards only. Some sources do not specify which types of return yards count toward this total because the most common forms of return yards are kick and punt return yards.[2]
Football associations differ on their own specific definitions of the term. The National Collegiate Athletic Association, for example, defines the term as "the combined net yards gained by rushing, receiving, interception (and fumble) returns, punt returns, kickoff returns and runbacks of field goal attempts. All-purpose yardage does not include forward passing yardage" (at pg. 206).[3] The National Football League (NFL), however, defines combined net yards as "Rushing, receiving, interception returns, punt returns, kickoff returns, and fumble returns".[4] Neither of these totals makes clear how they record yards from onside kick recoveries, blocked punts recovered behind the line of scrimmage, and missed field goal returns.
^^^ If they score it a sack, it will not count as a Rush attempt. Ben been sacked 46 times this yr, yet his rush attempts is only 34. Chk stats for any QB.
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^^^ If they score it a sack, it will not count as a Rush attempt. Ben been sacked 46 times this yr, yet his rush attempts is only 34. Chk stats for any QB.
DoubleUp the juice on him going over 1.5 carries at my book is -180 versus -130 for the over 1.5 yards on the first try or I would agree.
I love that prop as well and would have made my own thread about it. I did this same prop with Manning in the SB last year and cashed big. Was very happy they put it out again this year.
I agree that the only thing that would defeat us here is for them to face fourth and inches before facing a busted pass play. Even then there is a chance they run it with a back and I would say even if they sneak it we still have a 10% chance or so that he gets 2 yards!
But if his first rush does not come on fourth and inches then we should be golden. Think about it: How often does a QB rush beyond the line of scrimmage for just one yard? If he rushes he sees an opening and they always seem to get at least three or four. If he tries to rush and gets hit behind the line it is a sack and we have more opportunities. The books have left themselves a one yard window on this one and there is great value in pounding the other side.
Just MHO but I would not put one penny on #2. I could easily see him snagging an 11 yarder or more on his first catch. What if his first look is on 3rd and 13? He is a possession guy but he catches a lot more than dinks and can do plenty after the catch as well.
I also like the over on sacks a lot even though my book has the o/u at 5. (a friend has it at 4.5!!) Just not as much as that rushing prop which I see as pretty much undefeatable outside of a QB sneak...
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DoubleUp the juice on him going over 1.5 carries at my book is -180 versus -130 for the over 1.5 yards on the first try or I would agree.
I love that prop as well and would have made my own thread about it. I did this same prop with Manning in the SB last year and cashed big. Was very happy they put it out again this year.
I agree that the only thing that would defeat us here is for them to face fourth and inches before facing a busted pass play. Even then there is a chance they run it with a back and I would say even if they sneak it we still have a 10% chance or so that he gets 2 yards!
But if his first rush does not come on fourth and inches then we should be golden. Think about it: How often does a QB rush beyond the line of scrimmage for just one yard? If he rushes he sees an opening and they always seem to get at least three or four. If he tries to rush and gets hit behind the line it is a sack and we have more opportunities. The books have left themselves a one yard window on this one and there is great value in pounding the other side.
Just MHO but I would not put one penny on #2. I could easily see him snagging an 11 yarder or more on his first catch. What if his first look is on 3rd and 13? He is a possession guy but he catches a lot more than dinks and can do plenty after the catch as well.
I also like the over on sacks a lot even though my book has the o/u at 5. (a friend has it at 4.5!!) Just not as much as that rushing prop which I see as pretty much undefeatable outside of a QB sneak...
Yes cashin I am also on the "score first in 7.5 minutes prop" at -170 huge. -170 is actually low juice for such a high game total. Usually would be around -220 or more at my book. Great value. Suprised mroe people have not mentioned that one.
Good thread, lots of posters pointing out props that I am all over. (also on Boldin over 64.5 but made a thread on that one)
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Yes cashin I am also on the "score first in 7.5 minutes prop" at -170 huge. -170 is actually low juice for such a high game total. Usually would be around -220 or more at my book. Great value. Suprised mroe people have not mentioned that one.
Good thread, lots of posters pointing out props that I am all over. (also on Boldin over 64.5 but made a thread on that one)
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good luck CC!
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