Just a quick P.D.M. (points don't matter) update that I started at beginning of season. If you have a knack for picking outright winners of games in NFL, then you would have a very profitable season year in and out. The tally for the 2014 season with just a couple weeks left is :
Y.T.D. 181-36-6 .... Just36 games this season has the point spread played into to outcome of winning or losing a bet !.
Best of luck, happy and safe Holidays to you all. IceMan
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Just a quick P.D.M. (points don't matter) update that I started at beginning of season. If you have a knack for picking outright winners of games in NFL, then you would have a very profitable season year in and out. The tally for the 2014 season with just a couple weeks left is :
Y.T.D. 181-36-6 .... Just36 games this season has the point spread played into to outcome of winning or losing a bet !.
Best of luck, happy and safe Holidays to you all. IceMan
LOL, it just goes to show ya how "all them points" can sway you one way or another when betting on the NFL.. Year in and out is always about the same at end of year 70-80 %.
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LOL, it just goes to show ya how "all them points" can sway you one way or another when betting on the NFL.. Year in and out is always about the same at end of year 70-80 %.
These numbers are running very close to the historical norm and it's a massive database, but thing is just pick a winner - sometimes not as easy as it sounds. Good luck going forward.
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These numbers are running very close to the historical norm and it's a massive database, but thing is just pick a winner - sometimes not as easy as it sounds. Good luck going forward.
Great information, Iceman. What would be even more useful would be to analyze the amount won or lost based on the moneylines of betting the favorite. I think, perhaps, this may be an equalizing factor, because the oddsmakers do not tend to leave money on the table.
Perhaps the points don't matter, but I think the moneyline odds on laying the favorite certainly do/will.
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Great information, Iceman. What would be even more useful would be to analyze the amount won or lost based on the moneylines of betting the favorite. I think, perhaps, this may be an equalizing factor, because the oddsmakers do not tend to leave money on the table.
Perhaps the points don't matter, but I think the moneyline odds on laying the favorite certainly do/will.
I responded to your initial Points Don't Matter thread back in October.
I basically said this "Points Don't Matter" concept is meaningless and a waste of time. Several players there agreed with me. For those who didn't see that thread before, you can read that thread at your convenience. Here is the link:
None of this helps you. None of it. You STILL have to determine whether to take the dog or the favorite.
Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your P.D.M. total increases.
The only time it DOESN'T increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by LESS than spread usually doesn't happen. The likelihood of the other two outcomes is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive." Your totals of 181-36-5 prove this!
Big deal. It's meaningless. This doesn't help you. It doesn't help you one bit. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
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I responded to your initial Points Don't Matter thread back in October.
I basically said this "Points Don't Matter" concept is meaningless and a waste of time. Several players there agreed with me. For those who didn't see that thread before, you can read that thread at your convenience. Here is the link:
None of this helps you. None of it. You STILL have to determine whether to take the dog or the favorite.
Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your P.D.M. total increases.
The only time it DOESN'T increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by LESS than spread usually doesn't happen. The likelihood of the other two outcomes is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive." Your totals of 181-36-5 prove this!
Big deal. It's meaningless. This doesn't help you. It doesn't help you one bit. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
a very useful and insightful thread whats it doing on covers lol
and it proves your point perfectly just find the winner !!
Insightful? Maybe. Useful? No.
How is it useful?
I think Seattle will defeat the Rams this weekend. Seattle is my winner. So I should not worry about the 12.5 points I have to give?
That's ridiculous.
I like Denver against the Raiders on Sunday. Denver is my winner. Don't worry about the 14.5 points?
That's ridiculous.
Maybe I like the Redskins this weekend, as underdogs against Dallas. So I should take them on the moneyline, because that represents a better bet than the 6.5 points I could get otherwise? Points Don't Matter, right?
No necessarily. Not necessarily at all. Depending upon what the moneyline is, +6.5 points might represent a lot better value than the moneyline.
Insightful thread? Maybe. Useful? Not in the least.
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Quote Originally Posted by topshow:
a very useful and insightful thread whats it doing on covers lol
and it proves your point perfectly just find the winner !!
Insightful? Maybe. Useful? No.
How is it useful?
I think Seattle will defeat the Rams this weekend. Seattle is my winner. So I should not worry about the 12.5 points I have to give?
That's ridiculous.
I like Denver against the Raiders on Sunday. Denver is my winner. Don't worry about the 14.5 points?
That's ridiculous.
Maybe I like the Redskins this weekend, as underdogs against Dallas. So I should take them on the moneyline, because that represents a better bet than the 6.5 points I could get otherwise? Points Don't Matter, right?
No necessarily. Not necessarily at all. Depending upon what the moneyline is, +6.5 points might represent a lot better value than the moneyline.
Insightful thread? Maybe. Useful? Not in the least.
I think you misunderstand, Ed. You are evaluating the lines based on the spreads. Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever. So, you are picking the team you think will win straight up. But you are putting out a lot of money for the privilege.
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I think you misunderstand, Ed. You are evaluating the lines based on the spreads. Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever. So, you are picking the team you think will win straight up. But you are putting out a lot of money for the privilege.
I think you misunderstand, Ed. You are evaluating the lines based on the spreads. Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever. So, you are picking the team you think will win straight up. But you are putting out a lot of money for the privilege.
Rico you completely misunderstand what the OP is saying. You just pick which team will win and then you bet the spread if you like the favorite, but bet the ML if you like the underdog. Ed is on the right track in a way. That's what the "Points Don't Matter" thing is all about. And Ed isn't completely off in his supposition.
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Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:
I think you misunderstand, Ed. You are evaluating the lines based on the spreads. Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever. So, you are picking the team you think will win straight up. But you are putting out a lot of money for the privilege.
Rico you completely misunderstand what the OP is saying. You just pick which team will win and then you bet the spread if you like the favorite, but bet the ML if you like the underdog. Ed is on the right track in a way. That's what the "Points Don't Matter" thing is all about. And Ed isn't completely off in his supposition.
And props to Ice for keeping track, even if some of us disagree with the usefulness of the stats due to the fact you STILL have to pick which team will win outright.
And the part where Ed scores points is when the spread, obviously, gets further away from Zero. Especially when you get to 6 or 7 points, the points mater more often than is profitable most seasons.
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And props to Ice for keeping track, even if some of us disagree with the usefulness of the stats due to the fact you STILL have to pick which team will win outright.
And the part where Ed scores points is when the spread, obviously, gets further away from Zero. Especially when you get to 6 or 7 points, the points mater more often than is profitable most seasons.
Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever.
No, he's not saying that. (And if he is, that would be terrible advice. That's the last thing you want to do.)
He's saying points don't matter so don't worry about giving up those points when you like the favorite.
He's also implying there is no need to take the points when you like the underdog. Just bet the dog on the moneyline instead.
But as casheasy pointed out, and as I did in the prior thread, the further you get away from zero, the more points DO matter.
There's a reason why good handicappers will shop around for every half point they can get. It's because points do matter, and getting an extra point (or giving a point less) here or there can be the difference between winning and losing.
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Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:
Ice Man is basically saying you should always bet the favorite moneyline at whatever it is -200, -500, whatever.
No, he's not saying that. (And if he is, that would be terrible advice. That's the last thing you want to do.)
He's saying points don't matter so don't worry about giving up those points when you like the favorite.
He's also implying there is no need to take the points when you like the underdog. Just bet the dog on the moneyline instead.
But as casheasy pointed out, and as I did in the prior thread, the further you get away from zero, the more points DO matter.
There's a reason why good handicappers will shop around for every half point they can get. It's because points do matter, and getting an extra point (or giving a point less) here or there can be the difference between winning and losing.
Points do matter in about 17-18% of the games each year. That leaves 80+ % where they dont enter into the equation. In College bowl games up to today out of 12 bowl games 1 game points mattered in. That is little on the low side and will go up some by the end. It will still end up less than 20 %
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Points do matter in about 17-18% of the games each year. That leaves 80+ % where they dont enter into the equation. In College bowl games up to today out of 12 bowl games 1 game points mattered in. That is little on the low side and will go up some by the end. It will still end up less than 20 %
I think Seattle will defeat the Rams this weekend. Seattle is my winner. So I should not worry about the 12.5 points I have to give?
That's ridiculous.
I like Denver against the Raiders on Sunday. Denver is my winner. Don't worry about the 14.5 points?
That's ridiculous.
Maybe I like the Redskins this weekend, as underdogs against Dallas. So I should take them on the moneyline, because that represents a better bet than the 6.5 points I could get otherwise? Points Don't Matter, right?
No necessarily. Not necessarily at all. Depending upon what the moneyline is, +6.5 points might represent a lot better value than the moneyline.
Insightful thread? Maybe. Useful? Not in the least.
U sir is a smartest guy in covers.
I hv seen ur comment in NFL and u r so right, shame u don't post ur pick.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
Insightful? Maybe. Useful? No.
How is it useful?
I think Seattle will defeat the Rams this weekend. Seattle is my winner. So I should not worry about the 12.5 points I have to give?
That's ridiculous.
I like Denver against the Raiders on Sunday. Denver is my winner. Don't worry about the 14.5 points?
That's ridiculous.
Maybe I like the Redskins this weekend, as underdogs against Dallas. So I should take them on the moneyline, because that represents a better bet than the 6.5 points I could get otherwise? Points Don't Matter, right?
No necessarily. Not necessarily at all. Depending upon what the moneyline is, +6.5 points might represent a lot better value than the moneyline.
Insightful thread? Maybe. Useful? Not in the least.
U sir is a smartest guy in covers.
I hv seen ur comment in NFL and u r so right, shame u don't post ur pick.
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