04/05/2022 Tuesday Puck Talk

Good Morning Gentlemen and Jules

Well, first time I wore the collar in a long time. Wasn't even close with Tampa. Toronto fans and supporters this is for you Walk into Boston and Tampa and drop 12 goals. Am I sold yet? Hell NO. But I am intrigued. Let's see what you do tonight. Blues can't score once in the 1P (lost that bet also) but then score 3 in the first 5 minutes of the 2P. Calgary off the snide but it wasn't easy. Boston and BJ's was a penalty fest. BJ's 26 minutes in penalties and Boston 16 minutes. Nothing could be established due to disruption. 

So where do we start tonight? I see 3 and maybe a 4th game that is of importance. Let's start with the BIG one. The Leafs visit Sunrise. If AJ (or anyone) is around maybe some analytical input with the number. A week ago, Toronto was a -120 favorite at home and today the Panthers are -175 favorite. Is this due to b2b for Leafs and playing backup? Well, Toronto started a back-up on March 27th so that can't be it. What I am asking is why the big difference in home lines? Has to be the b2b or are they just saying Florida is that much better at home? This is why I say home ice in the playoffs makes a difference. To me this says Florida all day. Come one, people will be jumping all over the HOT Leafs at this DOG number. I'll wait till game time as I expect that number to drop. In regards to the game, the two most prolific offensive scoring teams over the past 2 weeks. In the last 5 games, the Leafs are averaging 6 goals/gm and the Cats 5 goals/gm (watch this be a 3-2 game). I will be watching this one for sure. 

The other rematch we get today is the Avs visiting my Flightless Fowl. After a defensive game we saw Saturday, do we get an offensive output? Both teams have some injuries and question marks for tonight's game. Colorado's last 9 road games, they have lost 4. Pens revenge? This game means more to the Pens than Avs. Pens would like that home ice over the Rangers and the Avs have sewn up the West. Might play the boys tonight. 

The other one. Minnesota at Preds. Preds a home DOG? Minnesota with wins in Carolina and DC. Preds have the Stars breathing down their necks in the Central and the Knights in the Wild Card, meanwhile the Wild are fending off the Blues. If the Wild continue with goalie rotation, we will see the "Wildflower" in net. The Preds are 9-1 vs Wild the last 10 (but have only met twice, this year, since 2020). The Preds have won both meetings this year 6-2 and 5-2. Why the home dog? Just because of MAF? This game will be on the other TV. 

Finally, the Isles at the Stars interests me because of the Stars situation in the race. Isles, have climbed from the cellar to the 9th seed and are just 11 points behind Caps. Do they have signs of hope? They are 7-3 last 10. Stars are returning from a Western roadie, including a loss to the Sea Monsters. The previous meeting in NY was a 4-2 Isles win. Will have to look a little deeper into this one. 

Other games, like do the Rags get their heads out of their arse's? Will the porous Wings D/G continue vs a Bear team on a b2b? 

Storms here today. What do you want to talk about? 

Thanks Doc for the  to the Leafs (that must have hurt lol)

Matthews vs Vas = Matthews by a landslide.

Don't know about tonight though, B2B in the Sunshine state is brutal, wouldn't be surprised to see them drop this one, but if they pull it off ???

Still studying the card but CBJ remains on its longest losing streak of the year at 7, is tonight the night they finally win one? On a B2B, playing one of the bottom dwellers in Philly. Just a thought.

Really like the idea of FLA so far. The over seems so freakin' obvious too but like Doc said, watch it be a 3-2 game. 

That PITT/COL should be a very tight one but I guess I'd lean Pitt. NJ always plays NYR tough but NYR need to wake up soon. Devils have lost 3 straight tho so they might be fired up to see a familiar foe. I should not be fading Minny but I do like Nashville tonight too. Just not sure if I'll bet em. That game has OT written all over it. Several do tonight, in fact.  Staying away from CAR/BUFF as I'm not sure which Sabres will show up. Anderson should be back in net. But Carolina still the superior team in every way.

OTT/MONT is meh. BOS @ DET, there's my dog of the day. If I'm feeling conservative, I'll just take the PL on Detroit. 

So, just stats to do as you please:

Toronto is 4-5 in b2b this year. In their 4 wins, they are averaging 4.75 goals/gm and 2.5 goals against. In their 5 losses, they are averaging 2 goals/gm and 4.4 goals against. Granted that doesn't take into account their recent play. 

It would be interesting to see the stats on just how many teams sweep the Florida trip. 

I take back what I said about Detroit being the dog of the day. They haven't beat a team the caliber of Boston since March 1st. A whole damn month+. The only way its happening tonight is if they catch Boston sleeping. 

I'm looking at the "obvious" overs tonight.

Edmonton has gone over 7 straight games. SJ has gone over 3 straight games. Any good reason this game goes under?

TOR @ FLA sure seems like an obvious one too. 

CAR/BUFF might low key be a good over play because Buffalo has been hitting overs a lot lately and can score and easily be scored on.

CBJ/PHILLY feels like a solid candidate. COL/PITT played a tight game on National TV the other day. Will today be the opposite? I won't touch that one. 

Hey Doc,

My two cents on the Panthers/Leafs line...when TOR was -120 on 3/27 they had just lost 4-2 in MTL the day before.  That was the Jake Allen 49 save game where Kallgren gave up 3 goals on 17 SOG.  That result must surely have held the Leafs line down a bit on 3/28, and Mrazek in goal (as their #1 at the time) also had to account for a lower price.

Looking back through the Leafs season (vegasinsider) I see that the Leafs price versus the top of the table, East or West, was significantly higher (mostly with Campbell, of course).  Just looking at home prices without Jack, Mrazek was -132 vs CAR (2/7), -146 vs MIN (2/24), and Kallgren at home was -134 vs DAL (3/15), and then -101 vs CAR (3/17).  Those were all home wins, so the 3/27 price of -120 does not seem way low considering the L they took the day before @ MTL.

I think the price opened so high mostly because of the Panthers home record, and I don't think the books dig into the defensive stats - just any injuries of note like a top 4 defenseman; that and Kallgren, who's given up 14 goals in his last 4 (rotowire).  And as you alluded to, the Florida Derby situation has to account for a little bump in the price of the Panthers.  Bob had a couple of games off to rest (SK got both b2b road wins).  My local/offshore has it at -162 now, which confirms what you said about the opening number being high.

My guess is FLA is highly motivated to get the #1 seed partly because they'll face the Caps instead of picking a name out of a hat:  Pens, Bruins, Rangers...or even as crazy as it sounds, the Bolts are now in play for the #7 seed!  There's only 3 points separating those 4 teams, and the Leafs as well, but with 39 RWs TOR seems assured of a #2 or a #3 seed.  Forget March madness, Doc...this is Lord Stanley's legacy.  Crazy times.

I'm thinking Panthers, like you, Doc...Leafs on the b2b, and Kallgren, but there's time before the puck drops.  TOR could fly around the ice against the lesser teams and not worry about Kallgren giving up 4 because they knew they could get 5.  Against FLA...will they have to ratchet back the aggressiveness to avoid leaving their goalie hanging out to dry?

Cheers  

@Moose6836

I like these picks 6836..

Pastrnak out for Bruins who are on BB after an overtime win, but still seems like the Wings have mailed it in and their goaltending is dreadful. Bruins getting offence from 3 lines and H. Lindholm has solidified an already good D. Gotta go with Bruins, likely on the PL.

Recent return of Lundell has been huge for FLA. Gives them that 3rd line that can score with Marchment and Sammy Reinhart. Leaning to the over here but 7 is getting a little rich for my blood.

Unfortunately I can see the Pens getting it done in a revenge and standings motivation spot tonight against the Avs. Kadri's loss will be felt in this one, and Landeskog and Girard are key absences too. Pens are missing Zucker and McGinn? Not that big of a deal. Avs need 1 point to clinch a playoff spot FWIW.

I typically avoid betting on my Rangers. The Devils don't have Hughes but still have lots of guys who can score. Georgiev vs. Daws? Yikes. The over has to be a consideration if anything.

Even on B2B, I think the Jackets deliver a much needed win over the Flyers, though this is another game with 'over' written all over it. With this trainwreck Flyers D and goaltending, I may "prop up" something with Patty Laine tonight.

The Sabres are healthy now and battling hard, but a rested Canes team should eventually overwhelm them even in Buff. Canes can clinch playoff spot with a win and an Islanders regulation loss. Sabres are eliminated with a regulation loss. Again ... FWIW.

Don't have a great read on Ottawa-Habs in this situation, either on a side or the total. With a gun to my head I'd take the home team.

In the later games, Nashville sure needs to beat the Stars, with Vegas and Dallas breathing down their necks. Should be an exciting tilt between two bruising teams with size and skill and good goaltending. Something tells me this goes under but I have no real data other than the importance of the game to support that hypothesis. Leaning Preds on the side.

Islanders at Dallas is another big one. Sorokin returns for the Isles which is big for them with a tough schedule ahead, but looks like Varlamov gets the call tonight. Suddenly these guys are sniffing out a possible charge to a playoff spot and have been playing great two-way hockey. Caps better wake up soon (the teams have 2 meetings left on last week of the season). Coming off a loss to the 'Crackin' and trying to nudge past idle Vegas into a playoff spot, the Stars will be ready. But I do like the Isles edge in goal and ability to defend here. Goaltending is going to be a problem for the Stars down the stretch.

Oilers at Sharks: Another big one for the Oilers while the Sharks are playing out the string. The Oil can leapfrog Kings into second place in the division and put some distance between them and the wild-card chasing pack. I just don't trust the Oilers goaltending or their ability to win in a fairly tough building to have a strong lean here.

First play is a homer play for me but I like it.

Pens ML

Want to play the Preds as well but it is hard as hell to bet against The Flower. Back with more later. 

Do the Rangers really lose 3 in a row? Surely they have to be a little pizzed right now. Rangers have scored 4 or more in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Daws (projected starter) has allowed 4 or more in 6 of his last 8 starts. Hell, it's gambling.

Rangers ML 

Rangers tt over 3.5 

In Oettinger's last 10 games, he has allowed 3 goals in 7 of the 10. Two of those that didn't score 3 were the depleted Ducks team. On the other hand, the Fishermen have scored 3 goals in 8 of their last 10 games. I really think they believe they have an outside chance. 

Isles tt over 2.5 

love panthers tonight, after leafs partying after beating the lightning 

Did I hear that right? Florida has only 2 division loses all year, Ottawa and Toronto. That's impressive. 

And Blue Shirts are arse again

@GASportsDoc

 Was super happy CBJ did the job today. My favorite pick of the day. Wish I had stuck with my original dog of the day in Detroit too. Big upset brewing 

@gasportsdoc what a game, that 2nd period first 5 min i was about throw my tv outside

That is an amazing stat, Doc.  Unreal for sure!!!

Bad results on a SO (Bruins) and an OT (Lightning) as well, but points at least.

Cheers