11/11/24

happy Veterans Day to all the Veterans who keep or have kept us safe! 

Sorry for the late post. Getting stuff ready for work tomorrow, cooking dinner. First of all, Dallas has blown my new record tracking system up already tonight but that is a learning curve and only adds to the data collected so it's not a bad thing! 

tracking a new O/U system I thought about a couple weeks ago for accuracy and solid play spot percentages. I have not worked in starting goalies to this system yet, still putting it all together but will be tweaking with additional data if the work produced is fruitful with the current information (more information can only make it better)

Tonight, on that system I have:

2LP NAS/COL O5.5-210 & CAR/VGK O5.5-175 = +131. - I would have preferred to play these as singles at their normal 6.5 totals, but I am starting with plays over 60%. IF the do not hit consistently I will move the marker to 70%. I am still tracking data on wins between 55%-59% to see what the "hit %" is on those games. 

The numbers I have show the NAS/COL game has a 62% chance to hit O5.5 and a 56.5% chance to hit O6.5. 

The numbers I have show the CAR/VGK game has a 72% chance to hit the O5.5 and a 57% chance to hit the O6.5. 

I also played LAK/CAL O5.5-135 as single play game play. Juice is not as bad. Numbers I have show LAK/CAL 58% of the time. NOTE - This is under the 60% thresh hold I am tracking but this play had a high end of 61% to hit. Also, a little more of a feeling based on how these two teams have been playing recently. 

I know it's somewhat counterproductive to test a system without using the same data across the board to make plays but I am not tracking the record of the system, I am tracking the number of hits over a specific percentage so misses are ok and will not skew the data (i dont think) because losses under the specific percentage would be the expected outcome anyway. 

The two early games have already started so I am not making picks for them, but I will share the information I had:

SJS/PHI 35% chance to go over 6.5, 45% chance to go over 5.5

DAL/PIT 33% chance to go over 6.5, 59% chance to go over 5.5 

LAK/CAL 37% chance to go over 6.5, 58% chance to go over 5.5

NAS/COL 56.5% chance to go over 6.5, 62% chance to go over 5.5

CAR/VGK 57% chance to go over 6.5, 72% chance to go over 5.5

As I said this is a new thing I am working on to see try and show the best match ups in which to play Overs and where we may have the opportunity to buy a different total with a higher chance to win instead of push. Currently I am playing games that are over 60% chances and will see if they are hitting above 75% of the time. 

BOL everyone! 

11/11/24 Card:

2LP NAS/COL O5.5-210 & CAR/VGK O5.5-175 = +131

LAK/CAL O5.5-135

SJS/PHI 35% chance to go over 6.5, 45% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 7 goals (SO)

DAL/PIT 33% chance to go over 6.5, 59% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 8 goals (6 goals scored in the first period)

LAK/CAL 37% chance to go over 6.5, 58% chance to go over 5.5 

NAS/COL 56.5% chance to go over 6.5, 62% chance to go over 5.5

CAR/VGK 57% chance to go over 6.5, 72% chance to go over 5.5

I am trying to enter information into the spread sheets used to help assist in choosing the highest probability play when playing OVER the total. Plays with a low percentage to go over the total can still go over the total so I am not sure this system will work for UNDER percentage unless its incredibly low.

NOTES - 

I played the LAK/CAL O 5.5 even though it was under 60%, as it was close enough to 60% and the DAL game hit at 59% (and 33% for O6.5).

The PHI game was a 3-2 score with only 2 minutes left to go and PHI let a weird pass through that allowed a cheap goal for SJS otherwise that game also ends up 3-2 or maybe 4-2 with an empty net. which keeps it under the 6.5 total but over the 5.5 total 

After a few weeks of use I am hoping to have a solid percentage play to lock in each night. 60% may be too low of a number, that may have to go to 70%+. 

Interesting Chum, I'm on board 

BITTERS:

@Bitters

Wouldn't ya know nothing hits tonight except the opposites of what I am tracking LOL.

Still good information to have.

Looks like will have to have picks above 70% or no play. 

7:00pm games go over the totals with low percentage projections on both the PHI and DAL games. 

BUF/MON was 71% to go O5.5 but only 59% O6.5 (two plays at 59% went over the total)

SJS/PHI 35% chance to go over 6.5, 45% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 7 goals (SO)

DAL/PIT 33% chance to go over 6.5, 59% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 8 goals (6 goals scored in the first period)

LAK/CAL 37% chance to go over 6.5, 58% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 4 goals (Game stayed under the 5.5 total with the LAK playing super lazy on the road)

NAS/COL 56.5% chance to go over 6.5, 62% chance to go over 5.5 - End total 5 goals (5th score in OT, Both teams had insane chances to push the total over, goalies were insane tonight in this game, I am honestly surprised this game didnt get to 3-2 in REG which would have led to a 4-2 score with an EN goal)

CAR/VGK 57% chance to go over 6.5, 72% chance to go over 5.5 - 4-0 at this time, need 2 more goals in this one to clear the 5.5 total which had a 72% chance to go over. it seems 70% is the new target number for plays to target 

0-2 with posted plays tonight (the CAR game was posted as a 2LP, that game may still hit the O5.5 which will add to the data that over 70% is a better number with plays based on this tracking system. Will keep up with it through the season and see if it can be helpful to us! Cheers everyone! Already started on tomorrow's information. I will be out working later so will try to get plays posted ASAP.