1/4/25

Youngest daughter's birthday weekend ...busy, busy, busy and not even a dang party today 

Since 12/27/24 18-8.

NOTE - FLA is on the "not to be trusted to score goals" list moving forward until they can consistently score. 

Locked this one in: 

STL/CBJ O5.5 -160

LOVE these two but not at 6.5, will likely try to get them at anything O5.5 in the first period if possible:

MON/COL 

BUF/VGK

EDM/SEA

Honorable mentions:

MIN/CAR

TBL/LAK

I originally thought DET/WIN would be a good candidate for O5.5 and although the total is set at 5.5 for the taking, with WIN getting beat by ANA the other night at home, I have a worry this may be a spot where WIN plays shut down hockey and shuts out the wings on the road. Shut out games are the mortal enemy of covering an O5.5 total (or any total) as most teams will not get there on their own. I do like this game but worried about WIN going out to beat up on DET. 

MON goalie stopped all 34 shots from FLA in his NHL debut... I would be surprised to see that happen again against a high-powered COL offense AVG 4.1 team GPG in the L10 GP. 

COL goalie AVG 1.9GA over his L10 starts. 

That makes an over tough to cover. 

However, both teams have been shut out only once this season (both during the month of November, an 0-1 loss for COL and an 0-3 loss for MON). The offense is there on each side. MON offense AVG 3.7 team GPG L10 GP 

Also note MON on the second leg of a B2B which they lost to CHI last night, only scoring 2 goals AND this game is a 5:00 pm matinee start time for the AVS. Early evening games can be difficult to get offense going given the odd time of day. 

Sheet numbers:

MON/COL - The probability of these two teams when MON is away and COL is at home based on their previous results from this season - 69.63% O5.5/64.76% O6.0/59.89% O6.5/MON OTR AVG 3.0 GPG/MON 3 OF L5 O5.5/COL @H AVG 3.0 GPG/COL 4 OF L5 O5.5/2 OF L5 MEETINGS O5.5/SINCE 12/1/24 When making an appearance with a probability of 50% or higher on the sheet, is O5.5 75% of the time, COL in the same situation is O5.5 67% of their appearances/The goalies have me concerned for this one. Also, historically this teams play tighter games and have only gone O5.5 twice in the last 10 games. 

Although this is a high probability game to go over the total and recent play of both teams supports the O5.5, the history of these two teams says U6.5 might be the play here? I really can't get a good read on under games and really hate betting them even more as every time I do, the teams blow up the scoreboard. Anyone else have thoughts on this? 

Don't like Overs on B2B Roadie teams like Habs are today.  Great momentum spot for Avs off the miraculous comeback win, with only exception is they host the Champs on Jan 06.  Prolly still be on the Avs.

GL 

@dyamarik

that's a great point!!  Ill have to keep up with unders on the B2B. I know for sure three situations recently where there have been H2H B2B meetings and you are 100% correct they have all gone under. they were PIT/NYI, CAR/FLA & CBJ/BOS. Lucky form me I have been so busy today the only game I played was the one I had locked in from this afternoon. 

@Fuse

@Gainsford

 Thanks guys! 1-0 posted today 19-8 run since coming back from the break on 12/27/24. Getting the sheet together for tomorrow and enjoying the remainder of the games this evening. Cheers yall! I survived!