1. Devils v Flyers 1st period over 1.5 +125
2. Devils v Flyers over 5.5 +137
I will again rely on my detailed game 1 analysis of this total because in my opinion, nothing has really changed and both these teams are still significantly trending over. What intrigues me about this year’s edition of the Devils is their intent on playing with some offence and not sitting back and clogging the neutral zone like the Devils’ teams of the past. They actually send two guys in deep consistently, even when leading the game.
First a quick look at the goalies. We know Brodeur gets the nod for the Devils. He has a 2.47 career GAA against the Flyers and sports a 2.66 career GAA at First Union Centre.
Bryzgalov has a 2.47 GAA at home this year but this guy has shown he is NOT playoff goalie. He sports a 3.49 GAA in this year’s playoffs, 4.36 GAA last year’s playoffs and 3.43 GAA in the year before that. He has allowed 3 or more goals against in 9 of his last 10 starts.
Relevant playoff statistics supporting the first period over and game over:
- Philadelphia is last in goals against among surviving playoff teams with 4.10 goals against.
- Philadelphia is also first among active playoff teams with 4 goals a game scored on average;
- New Jersey is second among active playoff teams with 3 goals a game scored on average;
- New Jersey is FIRST among active playoff teams with 32.5 shots on goal per game;
- Philadelphia is allowing 31.6 shots on goal per game these playoffs.
- Philadelphia has scored 16 first period goals in 10 playoff games and ranks #1 in the playoffs in that regard;
- New Jersey has scored 13 first period goals in 10 playoff games and ranks #2 in the playoffs in that regard;
- The Flyers have allowed 18 first period goals in 10 playoff games, worst among all playoff teams;
In the prior 6 meetings between these teams heading into the playoff series, these teams have averaged a combined 10.56 power plays per game. They haven’t ended their parade to the sin bin in this series as the first 4 games of this series have seen a total of 8 combined power plays on average, per game with both games in Philadelphia averaging 9 power plays. The thinking is that the more odd man situations then the greater the number of scoring chances.
In summary, expect the Flyers to come out and try to establish their game early. However, the Devils have shown the ability to score as evidenced by the fact that they are second in goals scored among surviving playoff teams and lead all playoff teams with shots on goal. The Flyers are right up there in this category with the Devils. The averages indicate that there is very real probability that we will see two goals in the first period given the Flyers’ propensity for allowing goals early and for also scoring in the first frame.
Much is being said about the absence of Claude Giroux but consider that he only has 3 points against the Devils in the four games so far and 2 of those points were in the last game! He’s had a total of 8 shots on goal in the 4 games. I don’t think that his loss tonight should upset Philadelphia’s offence much and I think this factor actually gave us a better price on these bets.
All in all, this game may very well go under the total as much as it might go over however, I like to play the statistics and if the statistics tell me that there is a better probability of it going over than under then my money goes on the over. I don’t think that Bryzgalov is capable of shutting down the Devils and at the same time, at home, I don’t think that the Flyers are going to be held to 20 shots. This game should see 60 shots and the probabilities indicate that both teams have a better than average shot at 3 goals each.
Relevant Trends:
- Flyers are 24-15 OVER playing with double revenge over the last 2 seasons.
- Flyers are 13-4 OVER (+9.5 Units) playing with triple revenge last 2 seasons
- Flyers are 18-8 OVER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons
- Flyers are 8-1 OVER their last 9 games playing after 3 or more consecutive losses
- Over is 5-1 in Flyers last 6 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-2 in their last 9 overall as a favorite;
- Over is 12-4-1 in Flyers last 17 overall.
- Over is 21-7-4 in Flyers last 32 playoff games as a favorite.
- Over is 12-4-1 in Flyers last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Flyers last 13 vs. Atlantic.
- Over is 15-5-2 in Flyers last 22 Conference Semifinals games.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Flyers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Flyers last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Devils last 4 games off a win.
- Over is 16-3-7 in Devils last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Devils last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
- Over is 14-4-8 in Devils last 26 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Devils last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-2-5 in Devils last 13 playoff games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Devils last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 6-2 in Devils last 8 vs. Atlantic.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Devils last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
on the 1st period also...bol
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