Posted:
#1
COL TT Over 2.5 +150 (@ 5dimes)
1 unit
This possible play surprised me when I ran my query, but here's what I see in the data I've collected, used and back-tested:
1) When on the road, WSH opponents scored more than 2.5 goals 67% of the time in the last 60 days. I usually look for >= 63%.
2) COL has scored more than 2.5 goals 54% of the time when at home in the last 60 days. I usually look for >= 40% when the visitors have been allowing more than 2.5 goals >= 63% of the time.
3) COL home GFA is 2.69 in the last 60 days. I normally look for 2.7 when combined with #1 and #2 above, but I'm willing to call 2.69 "close enough".
When I look at the last 30 days, WSH has allowed more than 2.5 goals when traveling in 5 of 6 games. That's over 83%. The one team that didn't is NYR, a team that has struggled to win at home lately.
Taking COL for anything positive is a bit risky, but WSH is likely to start Grubauer, and he hasn't started since Mar 11 according to Rotoworld. Obviously this is not a super high-percentage play, but combine all of the above with a +150 line and I'm willing to risk 1 unit.
GL to all!
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