Hey guys its been a while since I posted here at covers. I've primarily been using twitter as a means to get my plays out to everyone ... you all know I like to post my rationale for games and I just find myself lacking time to do so. With that other medium, just posting the play suffices. However, I have a lot of info for this game so figured I would post it and you can all make your minds up.
My documented record this season is 148-127 +54.51 UNITS
This is my first 4 unit play of the season.
LEAFS V FLYERS OVER 5.5 -120
First and foremost my spreadsheet data runs give me a handicap of 6.91 for this game. That is a big edge. 20% of my handicapping takes into consideration trends and other data. So, here is some additional information to consider as I did.
Toronto is 12-3 OVER in road games when they get 27 to 31 shots on goal over the last 3 seasons. (Avg score 6.7) The Flyers are averaging over 29.5 against shots per game and the Leafs are averaging 27.9 shots on goal per game and over 30 shots on goal per game over their last 3.
The Leafs are 26-12 over their last 38 games v teams allowing 29.5 shots per game or more. (games averaging 6.4 goals) and 14-5 over in that spot in the second half of this season. (games averaging 6.9 total goals).
Flyers 24-12 over v teams allowing 29.5 or more shots on goal his season, (6.3 combined goals) and 10-3 over if that team is converting on 17% or more on the pp. (with an average combined score of 6.9).
Flyers 19-10 over against teams who are allowing 2.85 or more goals against this season, (6.1 average goals) and 11-3 over against teams scoring 2.85 goals or more per game the second half of this season (games averaging a combined 7 goals per game).
The Flyers are 20-8 over against teams scoring 2.85 or more goals per game this season (6.7 average)
The Flyers are playing with revenge. In 20 such situations this season those games have averaged 6 c0mbined goals per game.
Both goalies tonight, Bernier and Mason are 2-1 over in their last 3 starts respectively and have horrible records against their respective opponents.
Mason has a fat 3.96 GAA .860 save % against Toronto in his 6 career starts against them and 3.45 GAA in his two starts v Toronto this season. As for Bernier, he has a career 3.86 GAA v Philadelphia and 3.31 GAA when playing with 2 days rest this season.
The Leafs are 19-10 over the total in the second half of this season averaging 6.5 goals per game and 21-8 over the total when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season, (games averaging 6.5 goals)
Toronto is 12-7 over on two days rest ( 6-2-1 over the total in Maple Leafs last 9 on 2 days rest) and Flyers 21-13 over on 1 days rest this season.
Finally Over is 4-1 in Flyers last 5 vs. Atlantic division and the over 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 18-7-2 in Flyers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference and they are coming off a game where they scored less than 2 goals. The Over is 7-3 in Flyers last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
PLEASE BET WITHIN YOUR MEANS ... A UNIT FOR ME MIGHT NOT BE THE SAME FOR YOU. Feel free to fade or pass if you disagree and by no means force extra action.
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