I look at line movement quite a bit. Also look at lines where some i think is strange etc. Of course most lines seem to be around right. But I'm sure many of you know what I mean when i say certain line looks very strange.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I look at line movement quite a bit. Also look at lines where some i think is strange etc. Of course most lines seem to be around right. But I'm sure many of you know what I mean when i say certain line looks very strange.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
Anyone have input on this? However it does seem like when there isn't this completely opposite line movement after the initial steam... the steamed side usually does pretty well it seems. Also in a sport like hockey, wouldn't it make sense only a sharp guy or group would know a lot? Also if someone sharp did bet Colorado to get the number that high and then the opposite steam happen right afterwards, what does that usually mean? Most likely its the same person or group right? Or it could be someone liking them but once they bet that, another sharp or group saw great odds on Minnesota and then bet big amount on Minnesota? Or could a sharp bet a big amount just to fool others thinking that is the right play? Also when it comes to hockey, anyone knows how much money it takes to move a line? Example that line moved 15 cents towards colorado in one move. Then it dropped back 20 cents a bit later on. Also anytime a move like this happens, the bet is almost always placed at bookmaker or pinnacle right since they take the biggest limits? Like if someone was a big bettor and sharp and bet the max limit at betonline or 5dimes, well pinnacle or bookmaker isn't going to move the line like this right? How much money does it take to even move a line 10 cents on one move? And it has to be someone sharp right? If it was some guy who is a huge whale and loses and bets 10k a game and decides he wants to bet 100k on a hockey game multiple times on pinnacle since they accept rebets, is that going to move the line at pinnacle and thus at other books?
Would be curious what others think here and did anyone else notice this steam on colorado and then steam right back on minnesota?
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Anyone have input on this? However it does seem like when there isn't this completely opposite line movement after the initial steam... the steamed side usually does pretty well it seems. Also in a sport like hockey, wouldn't it make sense only a sharp guy or group would know a lot? Also if someone sharp did bet Colorado to get the number that high and then the opposite steam happen right afterwards, what does that usually mean? Most likely its the same person or group right? Or it could be someone liking them but once they bet that, another sharp or group saw great odds on Minnesota and then bet big amount on Minnesota? Or could a sharp bet a big amount just to fool others thinking that is the right play? Also when it comes to hockey, anyone knows how much money it takes to move a line? Example that line moved 15 cents towards colorado in one move. Then it dropped back 20 cents a bit later on. Also anytime a move like this happens, the bet is almost always placed at bookmaker or pinnacle right since they take the biggest limits? Like if someone was a big bettor and sharp and bet the max limit at betonline or 5dimes, well pinnacle or bookmaker isn't going to move the line like this right? How much money does it take to even move a line 10 cents on one move? And it has to be someone sharp right? If it was some guy who is a huge whale and loses and bets 10k a game and decides he wants to bet 100k on a hockey game multiple times on pinnacle since they accept rebets, is that going to move the line at pinnacle and thus at other books?
Would be curious what others think here and did anyone else notice this steam on colorado and then steam right back on minnesota?
First, I don't think there would be a head fake steam move that late. It would take more money to move the lines that much at that time so I usually think if sharps are going to do that it would be early when the limits are low or there isn't a lot of money on the game yet.
I think the more plausible explanation is that there were sharps on both sides of the game. More money was on the Avalanche but they were also a public favorite.
When the line first came out, the Wild line got bet down from +118 to +108 (looking at BetOnline because they have early lines and it's my primary book). Then it got bet back to +118 and sort of oscillated between +110 and +115 all day until the steam move to +121. Then within 15 mins it was down to +100 after 5 moves and closed at +102.
I don't think it makes sense to spend all that money and effort to move the line up when there's no guarantee it will work and +118 and +116 were available for free earlier in the day. There were definitely more sharps on the Wild though, as seen by how fast the line was pushed back down to even.
That's my take, but I have little experience reading lines. If anyone else has another opinion feel free to share.
AJMay
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I know this isn't answering even a third of your questions but here's what I think from looking at the lines.
First, I don't think there would be a head fake steam move that late. It would take more money to move the lines that much at that time so I usually think if sharps are going to do that it would be early when the limits are low or there isn't a lot of money on the game yet.
I think the more plausible explanation is that there were sharps on both sides of the game. More money was on the Avalanche but they were also a public favorite.
When the line first came out, the Wild line got bet down from +118 to +108 (looking at BetOnline because they have early lines and it's my primary book). Then it got bet back to +118 and sort of oscillated between +110 and +115 all day until the steam move to +121. Then within 15 mins it was down to +100 after 5 moves and closed at +102.
I don't think it makes sense to spend all that money and effort to move the line up when there's no guarantee it will work and +118 and +116 were available for free earlier in the day. There were definitely more sharps on the Wild though, as seen by how fast the line was pushed back down to even.
That's my take, but I have little experience reading lines. If anyone else has another opinion feel free to share.
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