Hey all…
there has been something that I have noticed showing up here and there in the NHL forum that has worried me a bit and I thought that I would maybe put in my 2 cents and get a discussion going about it.
I have always considered the bettors of puck to be some of the smartest cappers out there. This could just be because I love betting puck and I am letting my ego get to me, but I just see a lot of posters in here, the baseball forum and the horse racing forum who seem to pay especially close attention and are less often lured into urban legend type theories and silly macho arguments over who is the best capper and other such buillshit.
That being said, the Penguins game for tomorrow night in
Will the Penguins win for sure? No.
Am I saying that you should bet the Penguins tomorrow night? No.
There is no such thing as a lock or sure thing or it wouldn’t be gambling.
And you must always stick to your own instincts and methods when betting.
But this, in my opinion, is a good deal and this is why…
take it for what its worth…
With a game line like this, there is always talk about the myth of a “trap play”… you know the “Vegas wants us to bet this” argument. With all due respect to those who buy into this idea, that is simply not how the business of bookmaking works. A book that, in a sense, was betting on an outcome by altering the line to “trap” bettors would NOT stay in business. The risk of loss would be too high. The books that exist for a long and lucrative time do so not by chance or smart predictions, but by pure numbers. The juice is their commission and the line movement is to ensure that, as close as possible, the gross betting dollars be balanced on both sides in order for them to collect their chalked percentage. I know that many of you know this, but it just worries me that I see some very smart and talented bettors on this site often still fall into the “this is a trap play by Vegas” mythos. (The only myth more common, and I see it mostly in the baseball forum for some reason, is the “this team is due” fallacy.)
Anyway, I figured that I would put it out there because, as I said, I have a respect for my fellow puck players and felt that this was worthy of discussion.
All comments are welcomed and best of LUck to you all on the second half of the NHL season!!!
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