Thursday Picks

Haven't been around much in the last year or so cause of work and writing, which has consumed a lot of my time. But going to try and pick games every night again like I used to. It's good to see a bunch of old faces still around, which was what I was really hoping for when logging into the site today.

Haven't really been gambling much the first two weeks of the season, as usual I like to get a good look at games for a week or two before wagering full units. When I've been gambling  mostly just been taking the Canes and Devils every game for peanuts, one working out well, the other not so much. Anyways like a few things tonight. As always my picks have a good bit of analytical work behind it, as its the field I'm in for work so really can't look at the game any other way these days, but still use my eyes and what I watch on TV a great bit as well.

Good luck to everyone on the night

Canucks ML +162- Playing this one strictly cause of value. The Blues record looks very average, but their underlying stats tell a completely different story. The Blues have been completely caved in in multiple games this season, supporting a horrid xGA/60 which sits bottom 5 in the NHL. Their play in their own zone has been troubling, but what makes matters worse is their play in the O-zone has somehow been even more atrocious. They're worst in the NHL in xGF/60 by a good margin. This team still has obviously enough talent to be much better than this and most likely will, and with Berube being up the guys a**es for their blown lead on Monday I expect them to come out on fire. But still think this is way too much juice for a team in the Canucks that has looked solid so far and really seems to be jelling with their new additions on the blue line.

Sabres/Kings ov 6 -115- Just not quite sure how this is 6 and not 6.5. Quick vs Ullmark is like an over bettors dream. Quick has been by far the worst goaltender in the league this season, no matter what statistic you look at. Combine this with two powerplays that have looked extremely formidable, and two teams that generate a ton of chances and I see this as being a very solid bet.

Isles/Jets ov 6 -105- Its never pretty when taking an Isles over but here we are. This team has struggled to be as strong in their own end as they were last year. Their xGA is second worst in the NHL only beating out the Rangers, while their CA/60 is third last in the NHL beating out again the Rangers and also the lovely Ottawa Senators. The Jets on the other hand continue to throw out Morrissey and the misfits on the blue line, which has not been pretty to this point. They however do still have an immense amount of forward talent and a PP that at anytime can strike for 2 or more goals in a game. 

Knights 1P -0.5- Simple enough, Knights off a home loss the other night, Ottawa on the start of a Westish road trip. I expect the Knights to come out hot.