Using econometrics and statistical learning for NHL betting

Hi everyone,

My name is Félix and i'm a PHD student in economics. I've created a model using econometrics and statistical learning (logit model) to predict the probability of winning for every NHL team for every matchup. The probability is updated every day by using the data from the past day. 

I will begin with 1000$ and bet 5$ each day by splitting the 5$ in differents bets. The optimal bets are choose with a variable which maximise the possible return, which is the ratio of the odd offered by the bookie and the probability of winning that the model calculated.

I will update my results every day in this thread.

PICK 14-01-2021

CAROLINA HURRICANES ML (x1.67) - 3$

EDMONTON OILERS ML (x2.15) - 1$

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS ML (x1.68) - 1$

Good luck. I have never heard of such a thing as econometrics.

My model operates on the fear of Mickey showing up looking for money. It has made me a much better capper over the years.

@BooBunny

 Thank you! Yes it's a different strategy haha

@QuebecApple

 Your formula came up with some fine plays. GL tonight!

@powercore

 Good luck to you as well! 

@QuebecApple

 Bonne chance pour ce soir!

@Anonyme

 Merci, à toi aussi! :)

Who takes $1 bets?

Who takes $1 bets?

@BooBunny

 bro LMAO

@Mike_32654

 I’m going to bet 5% of my total fund

Looking great tonight

CAROLINA HURRICANES ML (x1.67) - 30$ 

 EDMONTON OILERS ML (x2.15) - 10$ 

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS ML (x1.68) - 10$ 

Good day gentle sir. I respect your bodacious endeavour. One query though...where did you procure this oilers line of x2.15? Cause that would’ve changed my pick drastically for that game if the favorite became the dog no joke. Perhaps there is a bizarro bookie who doesn’t care about profits and cares about you winning and I must know about him or her. 

@GoodbyeMoonmen

Hi! I use SELECTBET.COM

@QuebecApple

 Selectbet looks like it offers better then Sportsinteraction

@bigdogz_ca

 Yes I like the bets they offer!

@QuebecApple

 The reviews are horrible w many people saying they are a scam.. hope you get paid unlike many others

Love this type of stuff! If you need any resources or want to compare your model to some other free models out there, money puck shows percentages of what they think which team will win. A lot of us can point you in the right direction if you want to fine tune this.

cheers  hope you make a killing! 

I'd like to know how your system varies from Oddsshark/ESPN? Does it factor in revenge? Motivation?
Anyways, if you've truly developed a viable algorithm you'd want to keep that to yourself and ride it all the way to the bank.