VGA - Model Picks True Winners [87% Winrate] Feb 26

Question

After collecting all the data from hundreds of games i've come to the conclusion the TrueW% dominates the xEG and AdjxEG inputs in my model. Hockey has high variance and randomness to measure expected goal with a short-range model, which i am using. This TrueW has blown my mind the past couple days. It measures performance of whats happening NOW based on both teams stats and outputs a percentage. The higher percentage is most likely the team that wins whether it results in OT. Below are the teams that displayed the higher TrueW %

Here are the model predicted winners for today. Teams with / OT means if they dont win straight up its usually in OT.

Sharks / OT
Flames / OT - xEG CGY 2 : NYI 2 [Measure of closeness]
Sabres
Senators /OT
Hurricanes
Canadiens
Predators
Wild
Blue Jackets
Panthers / OT
Golden Knights / OT

Hope This helps with your picks today.

VideoGamerAlby · Answer

After collecting all the data from hundreds of games i've come to the conclusion the TrueW% dominates the xEG and AdjxEG inputs in my model. Hockey has high variance and randomness to measure expected goal with a short-range model, which i am using. This TrueW has blown my mind the past couple days. It measures performance of whats happening NOW based on both teams stats and outputs a percentage. The higher percentage is most likely the team that wins whether it results in OT. Below are the teams that displayed the higher TrueW %

Here are the model predicted winners for today. Teams with / OT means if they dont win straight up its usually in OT.

Sharks / OT
Flames / OT - xEG CGY 2 : NYI 2 [Measure of closeness]
Sabres
Senators /OT
Hurricanes
Canadiens
Predators
Wild
Blue Jackets
Panthers / OT
Golden Knights / OT

Hope This helps with your picks today.

AJMay · Answer

Looks like these are all the teams with better stats for CorsiFor% and Scoring chance%

Did you make the TrueW% model or is it something you found? I think you mentioned it before but I don't remember.

Lippsman · Answer

For those that haven&#x27;t followed, the model picks posted so far have went 0-5 -6.38 units even though the posters is claiming a 87% success rate.Also I take the Flames game is a no pick where it&#x27;s a toss up ?

sodegenerate · Answer

Don&#x2019;t moose this system!  0-5 is useful!  *fade baby fade!*

chefmikeg · Answer

Did he even hit 50 percent on this ?

NYBartender · Answer

&#xA;Went 5-6 which is better than the 0-5 start so he&#x27;s closing in on the 87%

VGA - Model Picks True Winners [87% Winrate] Feb 26

Hot Forum Topics