Who likes this dog today?

Ottawa +170.

Let's get this 

With shitty Koskinen in net, definitely a possibility 

Smith starting 

Ty Tone, I’m on the Oilers now. Koskinen is very leaky 

Gl man, I don’t trust Smith that much either, continued Goalie issues with that team

Thanks again Tone. Oilers have burned me before, trusting them against the Sens. If they burn me yet again. Total auto fade the rest of the year 

Edmonton is not elite so this has a possibility.  The problem is Ottawa isnt strong enough to keep the puck away and if they get penalized. 

The good news for Ottawa is they are home, does that matter? a little. 

The line is good.  If Ottawa can get more offensive zone puck control that will be huge.

The data on Edmonton away from home....   and this is juicy!!!!   >>>>>>>>>>>>

I will use my best data site for this:  since 2018 and beyond.  I want a few seasons of data and I also like to use Edmonton because the last few seasons its been the same story for them.  keeping the puck out of their own net has been very difficult for them.  If one uses this site there is a lot of tendencies to discover, but that took me sometime to learn the language.  Here is the link, but this time i will break down what you are seeing.

 https://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+Oilers+and+season+%3E+2017+and+A+and+o%3Agoals&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

When Edmonton is away and gives up  0 goals

straight up wins and losses:

When Edmonton is away and gives up: 

0 goals =2-0

1 goal =13-1

2 goals =11-2

3 goals =10-12

4 goals= 3-15

5,6 and 7 goals= 0-16

When they play a team that can score, get offensive zone time, and  keep their big guns playing D, they get ripped and badly.  When Edmonton is allowed to keep the puck, they create chances and powerplays and keep their weakness on D and goaltending to a minimum. They cash a lot of tickets.   Remember these are ONLY away games.  I could spend hours breaking all this down, but this is a sample of what I am trying to do. It is time consuming and takes time to know team tendencies. 

Love the information Spottie!

So basically,  Sens would likely have to score 3+ to have success. I guess that would also depend on who's goalie for Oilers. Good stuff spottie

Yes basically it depends on :

Lines. How many times would you have to be Ottawa in home game against Edmonton to make a profit at this line.  If they played 10 home games can Ottawa win 3 times minimum?  Is 3 times at this line enough to make a profit?  Is 4 wins for Ottawa at home too much to expect? 

Personally I love dogs because of these tendencies.  I also think Ottawa is to early in their season to start to see them stay profitable against a power house offense.

What I also like looking for is if Edmonton kicks the crap out of them a few times in a row and then plays a better team this should create more favorable lines against Edmonton because of such high performances.  Reduced lines makes better ROI.  Higher rewards also come be using Atl puck lines and regulation lines.  Use these to your advantage.

Synopsis:  Edmonton since 2017 according to the data website i use Edmonton has never been this high of a road chalk. Its new territory for them.  This is good.  It is going to establish weather or not they dominate their weaker opponent as the line expects, or do they split these high lined road games and create High ROI situations for us to grind out profits.  I mean no one expects team to lost 2,3 or 4 in a row when laying -200 or less, but occasionally it does happen.

Betting Ottawa youre getting in early and in the dark according to the data, but this could be a huge opportunity because Edmonton sucks so badly on Defense and keeping the light out. On the other hand it could be over early if Ottawa is overwhelmed like they were when they played in Edmonton.

Like I said Ottawa is home now and according to the lines this is better because the lines are getting more sharp and higher ROI because the prices are -200 on the road.  The same as they were in Edmonton.  We are going to know in a few hours 

Following up on what @spottie said, EDM is not a very good 5-on-5 team when the McDavid or Draisaitl lines are NOT on the ice. Factor in that EDM doesn't get to match lines on the road, and you can see where EDM is vulnerable to a team that can get it's top line(s) out against the EDM bottom lines.

And this doesn't even factor in the EDM goaltending "situation"

All this being said, I'm still not confident enough to go with OTT here, but to those of you that are, GOOD LUCK!!!

Finding out Murray will be in net for Sens.hmmm...let's see how this pans out

@Raidernator76

 most certainly Murray can be a huge factor in stealing a game at home.  This season with the scheduling I have trimmed my units in these type of games because of the back to backs and 3 games series.  I am still working things out because the favorites have been so dominate, but I believe some of the young teams like Ottawa will get better as they get more time on the ice.  

In my opinion only bet on Ottawa after they have played elite teams and now are playing team with a  .500 or less winning percentage or poor goal tending.  I am also not sure they have what it takes at this point to bet on the road.  They dont have that in them yet.

Betting dogs we are trying to win 1 and lose 1.  Of course we are trying to pick spots that get us an instant win, but at these lines that becomes challenging.

I have cut my units in half so I have one whole unit in these home games at risk against Edmonton in case I lose both I lost one unit with 2 chances to cash.  Hope that makes sense.  Betting dogs is a grind and takes bankroll management and knowing the teams.

I think you have a solid play tonight I am on Ottawa too.  They should be able to get at least 3 goals in one of these home games and that greatly increases our chances for success.  In essence these 2 home games are  nice ROI plays, but we need some bounces good goal tending and a few good   would be a help as well

Very good add, thank you and best wishes 

Youre welcome, glad you enjoy and best wishes 

Scottie, I thought about also taking Oilers if or when Sens are ahead. Get the +1.5 with them. 

Still not sure yet

Youre asking me?  I would play in game and see how this rolls out after the 1st period. I have won a few bets this season on bad teams getting +2.5 and +3.5 on game.  In your case the good team, I dont do that often, my focus is on the dogs. I cant reverse my thinking.  Keep it simple.

no big deal but I fixed it for you :

Spottie, I thought about also taking Oilers if or when Sens are ahead. Get the +1.5 with them. 

Still not sure yet

Haha. Thanks. Damn autocorrect.  We'll see how the game goes. Hopefully in our favor. I appreciate it

By the way, who else you got for today.?

I posted a thread 

like Van they have to win once in a while right?

Typical Ottawa

yea mee too no bueno