I have been doing some more research before placing my Stanley Cup series bet as the current odds at my book is Bolts +155 and AV’s at -195.
My first gut instinct was that the AV’s will win the Cup in 6 games. However, after looking at their playoff schedule, they swept an offensively inept team w/ an above average defense in the Preds. Similarly, they swept an offensive juggernaut but with an average ho-hum defense anchored by a former Norris trophy winner in Keith, but is obviously a former shell of himself.
Thus, the team that gave the AV’s the most problems was a well balanced, experienced Championship pedigree team in the Blues (who are like the poor man’s/K-Mart Blue Light special version of the Bolts). Although the AV’s took the Blues out in 6, many hockey pundits would argue (and many would agree) that the Blues series would have at the very least gone to 7 games with a good chance that the Blues could have beaten the AV’s in a game 7 if Bennington didn’t get injured by Nazri (who by the way got what was coming to him from Kane IMO).
That said, the Bolts will unequivocally be the toughest team the AV’s will have played all during the playoffs. The Bolts are obviously an experienced, well-balanced team that can roll out 4 lines and are the current back-to-back SC champions. So they are basically the Blues on steroids!! Plus, the Bolts have the best goalie in the world (today’s modern day Dominek Hasek) in Vasy and they are going to get back Point who is one of their top offensive players behind Kucherov and Stamkos but more importantly plays the complete 200 foot game.
So when I think of all of the foregoing, I am starting to change my initial thoughts and now leaning towards the Bolts cementing their legacy as a dynasty by winning their 3rd consecutive Stanley Cup.
The key to who wins the cup in my opinion is who can dictate the pace of the game. If the Av’s can control the pace and make it a run n gun type of tempo, then I believe they will beat the Bolts in 6 or 7 games. On the other hand, if the Bolts can dictate the pace and make it a defensive oriented and greasy kind of series, then I believe they will win with the deciding factor going to Vasy over Kuemper. This is not to say that the Bolts couldn’t run n gun with the Av’s but I just don’t think that would be the optimal strategy to try to beat them at their own game. Rather, I believe the Bolts have the higher probability of imposing their style of play on the Av’s due to their experience and championship pedigree of making it a defensive oriented (and the casual or novice hockey fans/viewers would say it’s boring) series with strong goalie play. If so, then I believe the Bolts will win in 6 or 7 games.
In conclusion, I am going to put 5 dimes at +155 on the Lightening for the series. With Point back and Vasy playing in the zone, I believe the Bolts will be able to dictate the pace and ultimately prove to be too deep and experienced for the Av’s. So Bolts in 6 or 7. I think the AV’s will eventually win the Cup again but not this year but likely the next couple of years unless the Oilers can get a solid blue line and goalie or the Leafs can finally get their shit together!
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