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Bronze metal game: SPAIN -6.5
Australia came down to earth with a thud against the Serbs and now that their little run has come to an end I think they lose again. Spain is clearly top 3 while the Aussies have simply overachieved and like I said the first time they played Serbia (which they won handily), the NBA guys on AUS are not great players they are role players on great teams. They can't handle big men who can shoot and so Gasol should do well. Really like this play, unfortunately the revenge game for Serbia Fri night was my lock of the tournament but I was drinking all day and never posted it. I still consider this a strong play though.
Gold medal game: For the side I think USA -14.5 is where I lean but it is so hard to cover that number and the Serbs could play them tough again. But in general, it's the gold medal match which means there will be no foot off the pedal bs if they go up and in fairness Serbia blew 2 4th quarters badly in the tournament in the first Aus game and vs Croatia. And when an underdog wins by a large margin they could get flattened the next game. There's a big chance that Spain (who were also getting 14.5 and only lost by like 6 or 7) are the second best team in the tourney and that the US will cover more easily here. But this theory is why I actually like the spain play more.
The best play may be OVER 183.5, though I usually don't like to bet overs in final matches. But the Serbs can score and they also held the Aussies to a ridiculously low point total but that won't happen vs the US who will have Durant to dump into. He has been playing really well and everyone knows he can carry a team and after getting dumped out of the West Conf finals he will be hungry. As will Thompson who was denied a ring. This US team doesn't have Lebron or Curry but having KD is gonna be huge for them. The key will likely be Klay Thompson's shooting %, if he's hot they should roll as he will be open.
So I'm a bit torn on whether to bet the US - the points or take the Over. I'll think about it more after I see what Spain do.
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