AFL - RD 14

NM 1Q +6.5
NM 1H +12.5
NM +26.5

Under 157.5

it was138.5 few hours ago mate... im waching on line looks good weather

Massive push for Freo today. Not sure why

Well, not a great way to open the round last night. But did end up making money when I pounced on the Crows -9.5 at half-time.

On to tonight's game. Going to play the Into Bye advantage over Out of Bye again, both half and full game (half-time won last night). In addition to that, Freo is just playing better footy at the moment, and are in rhythm. Pies can definitely win this game, but none of us can see how (or at least I can't).

My plays:
Freo 1Q +1.5
Freo 1H +1.5
Freo +2.5

Total sitting at 150.5 now. Feels like an over, but weather too much of a wild card...

I saw that Freo went to -2.5 by early or mid aft, but by time I placed bets after 3, had moved back to Pies -2.5... Basically a pickem game, so I don't make much of those moves.

Magpies are due for a win. 3 consecutive loses

Blowout

Why does three losses mean you're due for a win? It might mean you're just rubbish

Suffered a beating on Freo, but I was Freo with those plays: comfortable, blase, over-confident. A young Freo team on a win streak, going away v. a desperate Pies team rested and focused. Capping 101: who wants it more? Ugh.

Moving on. Despite a crappy start to the round, I love the later game plays today. Gonna play the early one on principle (Capping 101, haha).

Rich v. Bris
I shared this yesterday:
Supporting points for Lions @ +51.5:
- Tigers coming off their bye (the team is hardly focused anyway, generally)
- Tigers have won 2 games by 38 points (Freo, Essendon @ MCG), one by 17 and two others by single digits
- Over-inflated line with an open at +38.5

Other things to consider:
- Tiges averaging 103 points at 'G over past 4 matches there (*including v. Swans); PA avg 100
- Lions scored 68 at the 'G v. Dees
- Last 5 games, Lions averaging 73 points and allowing 129
- Last 5 games Lions' avg 1Q margin +11 (against better offensive teams) / Last 5 for Tiges 0 (though cleared Bombers by -20, which was its avg 1Q loss over 5 games to the Giants one last week)

Along the points at 'G for Tiges angle, let's say they are going to get probably 105ish at best (what they got vs. Bombers; 114 was their highest). So Lions would have to get 54 to cover. They have never scored < 56 this season.

I like that 1Q Lions play, which is +12.5 now on 365. I wouldn't play 1H because their 2Q margin is horrific. Some pretty good Lions line indicators imho.

Now the line is out to -57.5. Geezus Louizas!! I'm fine with paying $$ to see the Tiges pull something like that off.
Plays: Lions 1Q +13.5, Lions +57.5

GWS v. Carlton
I paid last weekend making a similar mistake to the one on Freo. Giants admitted they coasted and will be extra focused in this game, against a good, very well coached, and rested team. Line has gone out a lot, and regretting not locking the -40.5 early, but still think this is a 60+ win. Gorgeous weather here, too, so not getting why the total is so low. Two of the hardest-assed teams (WB, Syd) kept the total to ~170. Over will clear for sure (amazing weather today).
Plays: Giants 1Q -12.5 / 1H -25.5 (50% more on this one) / -52.5 / Over 179.5

STK v. Geel
Saints off the bye, Cats heading in. So far, this strategy has sucked, haha. But, because of their losses coming to bottom 8 teams, Cats are going to treat this matchup like the other top 4 ones. Even more so because they realise the Saints play their best at Etihad. Say this out loud (to yourself): Round 12 Cats d Roos by 31 points, Round 13 Cats defeat Dogs by 57 points. Both at Etihad.
Plays: Cats 1Q -8.5 / 1H -17.5 / -34.5 / Under 182.5
Think this will be a physical game. And the only recent Overs at ES for both teams were against Carlton.

Indeed they were, well done.

Anyone else noticing a pattern with Jack Riewoldt missing makeable goals? I've only seen him in three or four games, and maybe it's a simple pull back from last year, but... Looks to me like he's throwing things (not accusing, not even close because I don't believe it, just posing the question to get others' views).

What a cracker of a match last night. Not good for the tipping til, but candy for the eyes. The Saints in Melbourne, and healthy, have held their own vs the top teams, and earned a big win last night. Not to take anything away from them, I was stunned by how flat and seemingly ill-prepared the Cats came to play. One of the reasons I felt so confident about the plays on Cats is that the situation was such an obvious one that they needed to get up for. From their two losses coming to inferior teams (Saints are much better than both those teams btw) to it being all over the news about the Saints needing a top 4 scalp and believing the Cats could be it, one would expect the Cats to prepare for and gear up for a top side (as they had successfully done this season). Not only did they not bring that preparation and will, they couldn't muster the will during the match (as, say, the Hawks had done when the Roos came out swinging a few weeks back). Personally, and having zero credibility or experience to make an informed statement, I believe there is something lacking in both Scotts' match planning and team preparation. Or maybe there's a little bit of that and they don't have a strong player leadership core to keep players focused. It's games like these that highlight to me how the most talented of teams can be brought down by average, or just :'good' coaching. You've heard me complain about Longmire, and I will continue to do so.

Hawks v. Suns at Aurora -50.5 193.5
I saw the score for this match last year was quite low, and had a look back at the match report to see the Suns were again without 9 or 10 players, and 4 key midfielders (Ablett among those missing). In much better health since last round, fortunately. Also, Hodgey was coming back from a 4 week suspension then, as he is coming back now after missing 5-6 weeks due to injury. Also note: Rioli is out (grandfather funeral). I'm torn on the total. In support of the Over: two high scoring teams, one rested off the bye and with the firepower now with healthy starters. In support of the Under, believe showers in order, though scattered, Rioli out, Hodgey back (more physical game) and totals that seem to be lower than average at Aurora.

Plays: Hawks 1H -25.5 / -50.5 / Under 193.5

Last round 11-10
YTD 93-66

6-14 on the Round