AFL - RD 16

Last round: 6-4
YTD: 105-84

Sydney +13.5 @ Geelong

Good luck, that' a toughy!

Thanks man, prolly gonna pull it due to Jack and Jilted story, don't like that noise

Some bizarre headwinds for these first two early games. Clarko calling out Port in the media was a stunner to me today. I was going to play Port line, along with everyone else and Tin. Either he knows his team is going to kick them a new Porthole, or that his comment will ensure that they get fired up to do so. So that is the play, without a doubt. Hawks get up for this game, and Charlie Dixon, who isn't used to the physicality of this match, kicks 40%.

Play: Hawks -7.5 @ 2.0

Cats v. Swans, Jack and Jilted... was not expecting that one, so will likely pull this one. With Tippet out, my play was stretched as it is... think the Swans fight this to the death, but how does this distraction affect the team? Not the experienced ones for sure.. but the remainder, like the ones who gifted Doggies win... yeah, too big a risk.

Play: no play, cancel Swans line play.

Changed mind again Swans, taking the higher line now:
+19.5

Wow, what a win for the Swannies?! And how about K Jack?! Another example of why I love sports so much, it's got it all: action, drama, surprise, "good"/"evil", and on...

7 more matches today and tomorrow, which is 1 more game than we've had for each of the past 3 weekends.

GWS v. Collingwood -46.5 / 182.5 SPO
Giants at Spotless have been nothing short of magnificent this season. Pies have been playing better of late, but haven't faced a top 4 side (my top 4 are, in no order: WB, Adel, GWS, Syd) recently. GWS with a bunch of rest, off the bye. And, they have recent experience of letting up a bit against Carlton (early). There isn't much, if any, true value in the line, but I'll keep taking them at Spotless until I lose one. I love the over here. The two times the total hit close to 170 here, Swans and Dogs were the opponents. The other 3 occasions: 192, 207, 241. Caution a little as the ground will be damp from rain the past few days, but I'm taking it.
Plays: Giants -45.5 / Over 182.5

GC v. Brisbane -34.5 / 203.5 / Metricon
I'm a little hesitant on this one because the Lions have had the bye, and they might just get up to play like a real team against the Suns. On the other hand, I look at the numbers (scores), and they don't support any evidence of this team trying (hard enough). Suns will be motivated, much healthier than when they lost earlier this season, and have payback on their minds from the dirty hit they took then. Lions 1Q and 2Q are their worst, the Suns' best.
Play: Suns -34.5 / 1Q -7.5 / 1H -16.5

WB v. Richmond -31.5 / 171.5 / Etihad
Who knows which Tigers team will show up for this game, but they're playing a top team at a stadium that really doesn't suit their (lack of) style. Dogs are amazing there, except when the Cats drub them. The Under for Doggies at Etihad this season - and I'm not making this up: 8-1. 3 games went over 150: WCE 158, Adel 231, Hawthorn 183 (total in this one closed 183.5 in my records).
Plays: Doggies -31.5 / Under 171.5

Melbourne v. Freo -13.5 / 166.5 / TIO (Darwin)
Like the Dees off two losses, don't like them away from MCG. Don't have a feel at all for Freo now that they embarrassed me last game. Given that I have all faves covering today, if they all win (haha!!), Dockers have to cover. I'm played out for today.
No plays.

Hmmm, of the faves I've taken that I feel are the riskiest, Giants and Suns full game line only.

Good luck! Erich

Carlton v. Adelaide +41.5 / 169.5 / MCG
Line opened at +30.5, and was at +36.5 last night. I do think the Crows win by 60, but could see them winning by 30-40 as well. Plus, as I saw in my large fave plays yesterday (one of which I yanked), there really isn't any true value on this side, here. However, the Crows are killers in the 1Q, winning 5 of the last 6 by DDs. The one loss, by DD, was at WCE. Now, the total is another story. It makes no sense, except that I see some rain in the forecast early arvo. I'll take my chances with that.
Plays: Crows 1Q -9.5 / Over 169.5

WCE v. NM -23.5 / 173.5 / Domain
I do not understand all of the love for the Eagles here. Since Tin agrees, I can only put it down to historical performance at Domain between these two teams. North are playing physically, and have just had an awful draw the past 3 rounds. And, according to the review, Goldstein is 7th in the player ratings, just behind Nic Nat. I feel that the Roos are the better team, and that disadvantage at Domain is not 4 goals. I smell an upset, but won't be playing it.
Play: Roos +23.5

STK v. Ess -40.5 / 174.5 / Etihad
Under "normal" conditions, this line feels about right. Saints off a loss, though, and against this Bombers team, I'll roll the dice. Also, Saints play Etihad very well 1H, and it's the Bombers' worst (scoring ~1/2 as much as 2H there).
Plays: STK 1H -19.5 / STK -40.5

Good luck today! Erich

Armfield kicks 3 goals from beyond 50, the last with 2 mins to go, to bring Blues to 18-27 score end of 1st... FML, haha!

6-9 on the round after an 0-5 day, shite!! ;)

Get em next week stud!