AFL - RD 2

Round 1: 4-0

First leans for Round 2:

Rich -7.5
Adel +8.5
Freo -34.5
Haw +1.5
Syd -36.5

The first 3 I will most likely play.

The Collingwood vs Richmond game is awkward as hell

I still think Collingwood have a decent enough team to win the game. Cloke usually has form against us and we are a team that Cloke can find form against even if it's his only good game for the year. Rivalry is strong. Then again, who knows how much of a toll injuries are taking on both clubs. How much of a toll is this illicit drug scandal taking on Collingwood, apparently none at all says bucks on afl360. Such a who knows game. This is not a game I'm willing to go heavy or even a medium bet on given the who knows factor in both clubs with where they are at right now. Richmond have another year for the young depth to develop, but its a very talented depth. Such a hard game to predict in my opinion. I'll still go with richmond to win, just not as comfortably as last time they met. GL this weeken erich.

Thanks Sport. You raise some very good points. I had factored most in, except the difficulty Tiges have had with Pies historically.

There are reasonable puts and takes on both sides. Normally I'd back the Pies off such an embarrassing loss. However, Tiges won't be complacent due to their own performance last week. Injury issues is adv Tiges imo. Talent as well. Desperation is adv Pies, but that drug thing was definitely a factor last week. Prolly less so this one.

Pies keep it reasonable, but line is down to less than a goal. I've got to play it.

Richmond -5.5

BOL

Adding:

Rich/Coll Over 181.5

Anyone know where we can view which side the public is playing for afl matches?

That makes me angry, could feel a loss coming but was blinded by loyalty

Tigers couldn't buy a goal first half... Wow!

Taking Adelaide -1.5.

There isn't much value in this bet with line moving by more than a goal. Teams are relatively evenly matched, but I think Crows are a bit better. Most importantly, I think they want it more.

BOL

Second play for me today:

Freo -25.5. Hosting GC

Always nervous laying these sort of points with the offense less Dockers, but motivation is very high after last week, home, Sandilands back, think they win by 6 goals.

Freo, wow!!

On to today's games. Really struggled with all three.

Hawthorn WCE is the game I just can't pull the trigger on. Home ground and history there, plus coming off an effort-based loss, suggest the Hawks win. Hodge is a critical out, though, and I think talent and health ultimately tip the balance for Eages.
No Play. But think Eagles cover.

GWS v. Geelong (Canberra)
I loved GWS at +15.5, and liked them at +12.5. Line is now 10.5. It's borderline, but I think the Giants keep it close enough to cover this, and potentially pull out the win. Motivation and effort should be in their favor. Offense, specifically scoring, is clearly on the Cats' side. I think they come in without an edge, though, and have to fight out a close win.
Play: GWS +10.5

Carlton v. Sydney (Ethihad)
Blues gave a valiant effort last week, and they are clearly heading in a good direction vs. last year. Swans gave an even better one, having admitted to being soft last year (my words, not theirs, but the same sentiment). Swans play superbly at Ethihad as well, Blues not so much. Superior talent, superior/similar effort = large margin of victory for the Swans.
Play: Sydney -28.5

Questions:
1. What are good reading sources for AFL? I've only been using AFL.com.au. Are certain papers better than others?
2. Is there anywhere we can see how the public is betting? ESPN shows it for the major US sports, but haven't seen something similar here.

Good luck - Erich

Well, in the time between my write up and making my plays, Giants line moved back out to +12.5 on 365. Locked. :)

Round 2 results: 3-3