AFL - RD 5

Last week: 7-5
YTD: 16-11

Sydney -5.5
WB -40.5
STK +9.5

Early open 

Yeah, been burned in the past with lines moving to much in the week. The ones I really like and feel confident in I grab early. Esp for Faves.

Pulling the WB play, mostly due to injuries. I think they still cover, with Lions on a bit of a letdown, but not risking dough. Line feels about right for circumstances.

Looks like a cracker of a round, beginning with tonight's match between the Hawks and Crows.

Hawthorn v. Adelaide @ MCG Hm Ln -20.5 / Tot 198.5
I like Hawthorn in this matchup, but the line feels about right. Opened -16.5, which I found a bit high based on relative performance of the two teams to date. However, a few things tip my favour to the Hawks: Hawks get a few key players back from injury, it's at the MCG, historical record v. Crows (Eagles will attest to the weight that can carry) and, most importantly getting a wake-up call in an almost loss to the Saints last week. Clarko and the team, when focused, devise a plan and execute against it like no other team in recent memory (on a consistent basis). I'm not going to lay the full 3+ goals, but rather assume they control Crows for at least 1H. 195.5 total points, at the MCG?? Whoa?! or WTF?! may be more appropriate, haha. I think this is a public overreaction to last week's Swans/Crows match, and Adelaide's scoring prowess. However, let me pour some water on those heads. Of the 7 matches played at MCG to date, only one hit higher than 175 (which was scored by Tigers/Blues), and that was 209 (Pies/Saints). Average of all games: 163. Then we look at Crows' average of 121 compared to Hawks of 91. And we see the line -20.5 for the Hawks. Hmmm.... I see the Hawks' struggling to get much over 100, at best. This feels like a 98-78 or 100-85 game (unless the margin is greater at expense of Crows' scoring). I see value on the Under.
Plays: Hawks 1H line -10.5 / Under 198.5

Sydney v. WCE -6.5 / 167.5 (down from 176.5)
Sydney off a loss, at home, playing a team it is very comfortable playing. Eagles have difficulty on the road to begin with, and they'll be affected by the early start (10:45am West coast) and venue that they can only simulate. Swans win by 2+ goals, so definite value on laying less than one (I grabbed the line earlier this week).
Play: Swans -5.5

5 mins into Q1, total is 222.5, haha... Still think I cover

Sucks starting the

Sucks starting the weekend 0-2... Drizzly and rainy here at SCG, putting a premium on points.

Adding Swans 1Q -1.5

Also have Suns +22.5 later.

BOL

Adding:

STK/GWS Under 183.5
Freo -35.5
Carlto TT Under 67.5
Essendon +26.5

Oh, Kochie is in the house here at Hotel Mosman... Not watching the show tho... :)

Careful on Carlton.  I think they surprise people this week, even in a loss.

Good luck on your picks! 

Remember this match and back against these two sides all season long.

I got fooled on the over.  There is absolutely no forward play nor possession in either of these two sides.  Their goal-kicking is squalid.  They will be getting wrecking all season long by those who can control the backline and push quickly into the midfield.

The match was entertaining from a scraper's point-of-view, but not much else.

How far has Fremantle fallen?

Hey Head, great comments, and which two teams were you advising to watch and fade?

Adding Essendon +5.5 1Q
Over 174.5

Blues and Freo. They are both pathetic beyond what even the stat line shows. Carlton should've won by 30+ but their forward push had zero steam once they were in the Dockers half. It was spray and pray.

The Dockers did a decent job cleaning up the Blues' mess in their own 50 and half but looked completely lost once they actually had possession. Pavlich was the only one constantly in position, and by the second term, had taken it upon himself to start roving the pitch to hotspots out of pure frustration with his teammates, no doubt.

These two sides will be getting wrecked against any side which knows what to do with the ball once they have possession. Even if they aren't a top side or a prolific scoring unit, likes the current Demons team, for instance.

Thoughts on the ANZAC day match, HeadOverHeart?

The line is too large at 26.5 when it opened.  I am on Collingwood ML @ 1.30 backed into Melbourne from last night.

This is mainly a play on the veterans of the Pies knowing the gravity of the ANZAC match, Buckley coaching for his job, and Cloke for his pride and spot on the team.

Essendon is pesky but 8 goals a match isn't gonna cut it on ANZAC Day.

Good Luck guys! 

Well gents, that was simply a box of a round.

I tally it as 2-9, with the only wins the Swans line and Pies/Bombers Over. Good grief...