Posted:
#1
Hi all,
I will only be playing this game for the first round whilst I adjust my model. I will mostly play totals with occasional lines.
This is the 3rd time in 7 years Carlton and Richmond have started a season at the MCG. Combined both teams have scored well above the first round average of 172 over those last 6 years. In their two starts they scored 186. Interestingly the ground average is 174 for that same period.
Outside of numbers - being the first game and with 4 debutantes you could argue Carlton might have trouble scoring. Factor in Richmond's style of play, that teams will slow down in the 4th quarter and again it indicates and under the total.
With the game total set at 171.5 though I am going to take the over. Playing the historical numbers. It should be noted that in recent times there has been 8 games at the MCG where the total is between 170-173 and the over has hit 6 of those times.
I will only be playing this game for the first round whilst I adjust my model. I will mostly play totals with occasional lines.
This is the 3rd time in 7 years Carlton and Richmond have started a season at the MCG. Combined both teams have scored well above the first round average of 172 over those last 6 years. In their two starts they scored 186. Interestingly the ground average is 174 for that same period.
Outside of numbers - being the first game and with 4 debutantes you could argue Carlton might have trouble scoring. Factor in Richmond's style of play, that teams will slow down in the 4th quarter and again it indicates and under the total.
With the game total set at 171.5 though I am going to take the over. Playing the historical numbers. It should be noted that in recent times there has been 8 games at the MCG where the total is between 170-173 and the over has hit 6 of those times.
0
Good luck tonight Ecoute, season opener I will sit back and enjoy this one without any money riding on it.
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