Posted:
#1
Hi all,
I skipped last week. Probably not a bad one to skip. Lot's of articles and commentary around saying high scoring games are the future and then lots of lots scoring games and upsets.
Record is 1-0.
Looking at tonight's game (Port vs Drug cheats). What is notable is when Port have thrashed teams it has resulted in the total going under.
Port & Freo Game 122-53 with a total set at 183.5.
Port & Saints Game 112-49 with a total set at 177.5
There have been 4 games in recent times with the total between 180-190 and they are split on the OU.
Port could easily score 120 points in this game. Port don't defend but this Essendon team is so damn awful. I can't trust them to score another 66 points. Essendon are not cohesive enough to play a running game without setting new records in clangers and Ports running game as well as 1 on 1 markups imo favours them.
I like the line. I don't buy into the injuries Port have. They have scoring options and the Dons defense is terrible. I don't buy the Dons having renewed confidence. The line is high sure compared to previous similar numbers but this is about the team (not numbers) and Dons are terrible.
I'm going with -40.5 @ $1.72.
Maybe more games this round depending on if I have the time.
GL to all.
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