AFL - The bye factor

What is this love for the bye theory ?

Whilst I completely accept that byes can have an adverse affect on teams in any sport I don't believe based on what we have seen in the AFL so far that you could say it is sure thing.

Look closely at the teams that have come off byes and who they have lost to and then there is really only one, possibly two games where you could argue the point. See below.

R2 GC loss (No suprise they were expected to be wooden spooners)

R3 Crows loss (Bottom 8 team losing to a slightly better team. Check out the injury list for Adelaide back then)

R4 Roos loss (Bottom 8 team losing in Perth)

R5 Lions loss (Wooden soon contender after having lost their focal point in Brown), Saints win (Looking like a bottom 8 team but won), Doggies (Another team losing in Perth)

R6 Weagles win (Against poor Dees in Perth), Sydney loss, (admittedly at SCG to Carlton another top 8 team). Dees (Playing Weagles one had to win one had to lose)

R7 Hawks win (Against Port LOL), Freo (Against the Tigers), Mel (Against the pathetic Adelaide)

R8 Pies loss (To cats, potentially both teams to play in the grand final.

a) Teams that lost after a bye played a better team.
b) Travel to or back from Perth.

By my reckoning the above two fit 7 games played whilst only 3 games where the above is not a factor have resulted in loses.

If you believe the AFL bye theory does that mean you would blindly bet GC, Port, Lions, Crows, Roos to beat the Pies or Cats (If they played and were coming of a bye) ?

Anyone ?

Just as a followup to my last question. Do I think the Cats will beat the Blues because of the bye...... NO!!!!! If they beat them it will be because they are the better team.

the ones i was a little suprised by were Geelong beating Coll and Carlton beating Sydney. In both cases the team off the bye was run over in the last quarter, where i would expect the opposite.

I completely understand what you're saying.. whether teams should or shouldn't have lost is up for debate!

But this is a pretty solid TREND at the moment, and that trend coupled with Geelong's strength means I will be betting the Geelong line tonight...

By no means is the bye a definitive factor in my decision making, it's just a pattern that seems to be continually hitting...

We'll have to wait and see if the trend stays true !

GL this weekend ecoute

Carlton have such a poor record at the SCG. I think that was their first or second win in about 9 years.

I expect the Cats to win but wonder why the line is only at 14.5. Even a 1st played 4th game the Cats are a class above the Blues. Also if the bye does have a negative effect on teams surely the linemakers would have adjusted for that as well. Lets say they did then the line would come down to what -6.5 or less if no bye was played......... no way Blues are as good as the Cats to make it a toss up. If the linesmakers didn't adjust for the bye then the linemakers don't share the thought that the bye has a negative effect on teams coming off it.

The other factor of course is that the Cats could have a let down. Is that negated by the death of Bobby Davis ?

If the Cats win tonight then both your thoughts about the bye but all also my thoughts about the byes are validated

Blues lose by 2 points to the to the Cats. Did the lose because of the Bye or because the Cats were the best team. In fact the Blues could and probably should have one the game. Hats off to the Blues for the good game they made of it.

Both teams have arguments to have taken this one out... regardless of those arguments, the trend stays true...

That would the definition of stubborn and unwilling to accept reason and logic.

GC will come off a bye this week and guess what I expect them to lose. They will lose not because they had a bye but because they are playing the top team in the Cats. Do you really believe they will lose because of the Bye ?

Look at the next few rounds. Essendon have a bye this week then play Melb, Then Richmond and Port. The Tigers play at the SCG and that is nothing more than a 50/50 game. Port are comical and play the Weagles and will lose that.

I have not entered into the ins and outs or analysis of these matches at any point in my contribution, all I have referenced is the trend, a successful trend at that.  If you don't want to attach anything to it, so be it.

I have at no point said that I believe this to be a defining factor.  Just an interesting pattern.  Relax yourself ecoute.

I believe the bye only helps the fittest teams in the comp. Carlton showed they bye was helping them more so than any other team this season as they were outrunning the Cats in that 4th quarter. Collingwood too against the Cats were starting to outrun them in that 4th. The top 4 or 5 teams are advantaged by the bye but the rest need competitive match fitness to regain consistency. Just shows how far ahead the top 4 teams are compared to the rest. In a strange way because of Collingwood's excellent finish to last season it's pushed Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn more harder during the pre-season than ever before and because of that, those top 4 teams again move further away from the rest in performance. Saints, Dogs and Bombers probably haven't got the depth to manage injuries and keep the player rotations going all season so they eventually start to tire end of season. Look at Collingwood I mean they have 4 or 5 blokes in the reserves who can easily come in and play a role same too with the Cats. I mean Geelong will rest  4 or more players against the Suns and bring in a few from the reserves.

team roster depth and the new sub rule will equal success in 2011

byes hurt. how many more losses do you need for this to be proven. maybe next year it wont matter? but for this yr its evident that teams have been coming out flatter 

Don't dismiss that in seven of those games the team that had just had the buy was playing a lower ranked team ?

Sure the Dons were beaten. In fact a good punter might have put money on the Melbourne with the points following all the rubbish that made the news in that week. But apart from that by my reckoning it is 7-4 where a lower ranked team has lost to a higher placed team after a bye. Hardly evidence that Bye has detrimental effect.

This week Sydney (5) play Richmond (10) at the SCG. If Sydney wins will it be because of the bye or because they play a higher ranked team at their home ground. Will it matter that the Swans have won the last 5 contests at the SCG vs the Tigers that the Tigers have not defeated the Swans in over 6 years at the SCG ?

The next week Port (16) will play the Weagles (6) at Subi. Does anyone seriously think Port will win that game. Are people then going to say that Port lost because of the bye ?

C'mon seriously

Let me make another observation. This year in particular teams are resting players more than in past years. In particular the Cats. Yet the Cats are top of the table.

disagree.

Hey ecoute, why not stop trying to look so deeply into it and accept the trend for what it is - a trend!

stop trying to attach reason and logic to it and what ifs and what nots... the bye trend continues to be strong and taking teams down!

Now excuse me I'm off to put the house on Sydney this weekend, they're playing Tigers off the bye

So stop being so stubborn and enjoy the trend, bra.

They were as at 2 weeks ago when I did the numbers. They most likely still are now.

True Carlton have had a losing record at the SCG but the Swans also lost to the Hawks. Another team that has struggled to win at the SCG so you can't read all that much into it.

I know what you are saying rooboy but I am trying to get people not to automatically say "team is off a bye and therefore will lose. I will pound it my super fund". That teams that lose after byes there is more to it than that.

There you are............... see my above post.