AFL R12

YTD: 37-37  +6.7u

 

Got badly smashed last week losing 7.1u. Would have only been down a couple if port hadn't monged in the last quarter, but it wasn't to be.

 

Found quite a few I like this week.

 

Essendon have one reasonable result in their last 8 games, when they played an out of sorts Adelaide close at AAMI. They haven't been closer than 5 goals in any of the others.

 

WC have been reasonable or better in three of their last 4. WC usually go ok at TD.

 

Essendon don't look to bad on paper and may be due for a decent performance, but I am betting against it.

 

Don't think there is much in this and I would be more confident if were at TD. However, WB have performed in the big games this season handling Sydney away and Hawthorn last week which makes me think they will get the job done here.

 

I see quite a few factors favouring NM:

- longer rest Friday night versus Sunday

- Fremantle coming back from Brisbane

- decent record v freo including at Subiaco

- Wells back

- Fremantle have been choking

- NM generally winnning the close ones

- NM have a pretty tough draw for the rest of the season, it will be tough to make finals if they don't win this one

- Mark Harvey seems to have lost the plot, evidence him arguing that fremantle are a dangerous team at the press conference after last game

 

Still not convinced about Adelaide. They were getting beaten pretty badly by Richmond until Richmond went full speed reverse in the second half. Yet to beat any of the contenders.

 

Hopefully Carlton will come to play in front of a big crowd. Collingwood have to reverse the result at the same venue in round 4 by about 8 goals.

 

Carlton's back line is starting to look ok, in particular the HB line of thornton, Waite and Simpson. Cameron Cloke has been playing pretty well in the ruck and getting a fair few possessions, another area of weakness in recent times. 

 

I wouldn't be suprised if Collingwood get revenge but I am betting Carlton have their blood up after last week and at least keep it close.

 

Melbourne are improving and Richmond are in freefall.

 

Best game I have seen Bruce play in a long time last week and I thought Sylvia and Bate played well. Green and Maclean have been trying hard and making a contribution. Davey back is a big in.

 

Melbourne were poor in their one appeareance at TD, whereas richmond have put in two commendable performance there, which of concern. However, I am betting Melbourne have a crack and keep it close if not spring an upset.

 

 

 

 

GL mate. I really want to take the Weagles but i'll wait for the totals.

good luck this week binomial your right about harvey he looks like his under alot of pressure actually saw him with a smile on his face for once...on his bday

GL bin, I think this week will be very close in margins, thus like most of what you have picked.  There is no plays for me at the moment...and more than likely for the weekend.  The only game that I did actually think about was Geel -25.5, don't ask me why apart from I think this is a really tough spot for Port after last weeks game

Thinking Port may bounce back and go ok. They have the players, just need to apply themselves. Burgoyne back and Scarlett out.

 

Adding:

Seems to be money for Fremantle again, they mustn't have heard the saying the trend is your friend.

 

Windy and raining a bit in Sydney at the moment. Will be difficult to win big, so some value here for mine.

 

 

Like that Sydney play mate