Posted:
#1
YTD: 27-27 +4.6u
Played a couple of futures:
Western Bulldogs to win it all $15 1.5u
I think WB are third best team and possibly not that far off the top 2, Plus:
- fairly easy draw
- a few players to come back: West, Williams, Everitt and Higgins
- soft schedule to date but they handled their first real test, Sydney at SCG in style
Think it should be more like $8
St Kilda not to make top 8 $2.63 1.5u
My rough calcs give them about 40% chance of making finals. Assigning a probability to each game I came up with 7.2 wins for the rest of the season, giving them 11. Their percantage is terrible already and given they have so much trouble scoring hard to see them fixing it. I don't think this will be enough to get in.
They have not got close to the last three decent sides they played:
- lost to WB by 38
- lost to Geelong by 42
- lost to Port by 21
Only Port and Brisbane are serious contenders outside the 8 IMO with Richmond some chance (Richmond have 7 games against Essendon, WC, Carlton, Fremantle and Melbourne if they won these and 2 others against better sides they should make it, not completely out of the question). I think Port and Brisbane are better teams.
Western Bulldogs ML $1.78 3u
Fremantle have butchered wins in their last three games (they were even with Adelaide in the last quarter but managed to lose by 3 goals, similar against Geelong and far worse v Melbourne).
I think WB are a much better side, but even if it is close seems a reasonable chance Fremantle will go to powder in the last quarter
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