AFL Rd 11

Straight up ladies and gentleman is my record:

 

 

Think the above record is correct, forgot to check last weeks thread before starting a new one this week, but I do know that the POW's are correct...dam Kangaroo's, should have known better that sooner or rather they would fall behind at half time, but struggle to get back in the game like they did in the previous few weeks.  Ok onto this weeks games, and I have to admit that I am very confident on all three, plus I'll try 'another' multi and see how I go...not much on write up's this week though but just a few comments.

 

 

How can the line shift 'just' 5 points from the opening quote on Wed when the Kangaroo's have lost Thompson & Jones (arguably their best forwards) and then Geel have Mooney & Chapman (who along with Johnson) are the best forwards for Geel back into the side, and have no fear this is the best side Geel has fielded all year, barring Hunt.  Let's also not forget that Geel loves to play at the Telstra Dome, and the Roo's have over the past 4 weeks played in the following town's: Adel, Gold Coast, Melb & Bris...that there is alot of travelling over the past few weeks especially in AFL terms. I also read that Brayshaw has all but conceeded defeat referring to how gd this side is, and also the amounts of injuries the Roo's have at the moment.  The great thing about Geel is that they have the ability to dish up a game plan that pace is only for the full 4 quarters, thus when you can get worried about a moose in the last quarter I think this is 'less' likely with this side than many others.  Just a quick note that the Roo's have a first gamer in Davies & a second gamer in Urquhart

 

P.S. The Kangaroo's 'will' get smashed in this game by at 'least' 60 points...thus the line is a joke IMO.

 

 

Harvey hasn't made any changes to a side that has been leading in most of their games of late with 2 of these games played at Subi, and the other two against average sides in Melb & Carl (sorry Carl supporters as that may be a bit harsh...but let's just say that they are a young side that is learning instead), and like I have mentioned in the last couple of weeks, and again above just like the Kangaroo's (as they came from behind at half time) is that eventually it all catches up with you and instead of leading at the 3/4 quarter time and being in games, they will fall significantly behind, and thus won't know how to handle the opposite side of the ledger when they are chasing arse's 'all' day! I have also stated that game time (body clock wise) will be a 11.10am start for Freo and you might think that is a silly comment, but again I believe only professional sides handle 'all' factors that come your way and with an inexperienced coach I think this game time is very unusual for Freo, and thus give Bris the chance to make a jump start...and also throwing in the fact that this is the longest road trip in the AFL of any team.

 

 

Below is Melb Vs Coll quarter's won:

 

            1st Qtr    2nd Qtr   3rd Qrt   4th Qtr    Total

 

Coll          5            8            6            6          25

 

Melb        1            1            1             4           7

 

Coll has won a stagering 18 more quarter than Melb...that is 4.5 games of football   I just don't see where Melb will be able to score their goals from with Neitz already out and now Robbo... maybe they will get more from  Miller, and now I see Syliva named at full forward...very intersting considering that he played a majoirty of his later junior footy at the Bendigo Pioneer's (U18's) as an onballer and then also his earlier years as an onballer at Melb...I see Bailey clutching at straws.  Rocca is also back with what is in my opinion one of the best forward lines in the comp so I see Coll kicking at 'least' 20 goals in this game and Melb being lucky to get 10, while also playing in front of a big public holiday crowd at the 'G' which is where Coll like to play.

 

Going to go with the following multi also, which I shouldn't but the gambler in me just can't help it

 

 

GL everyone, and remember that footy is played 90% above the shoulders

 

Comments more than welcome, and HOH...Freo game will have to wait just that little bit longer as they have one of the best draws in the AFL of any side, thus have to wait until the 'right' spot, but still think they really really struggle against Bris this week...hence the POW pick.

 

Will have more time later tonight to get stuck in this round's games.  Wished I would have hit Geelong last night, as I almost did, at -32.5.  Dangit!

 

Hahaha...

 

CLOSED now on the book I am currently using.

Should have moved more than it did especially with the 'in's and out's' of both sides...I don't think this line is a trap, but more a gift.  I will be hitting this very hard even 'if and when' it goes up by a few points...and the Coll loss for Geel is just what they needed to get their game back into order

BOL Miracle, supercats have to be the best bet of the round IMO

 

Take a look at the Tigers against the Crows - apart from that Swans game last week which I am inclined to call it a one off, they actually haven't been playing that bad. The Crows on the other hand have had the yips in front of goal and have been struggling a lot over the past few weeks.

 

 

Not sure on the Tigers game as they are a yound side that can be inconsistant at times...and Adel are a professional unit, so just those two factors make it a no play for me as I just don't have a fell on both.

 

As for the lines you mentioned, haven't seen any books that do this, we are so far behind the US it isn't funny, but give it 3-5 years and type of betting will be available.

 

Let's get the cash this weekend, and I'll tail you on your NRL picks for tonight...they look gold...but then again, what would I know about NRL

 

As for Centrebet in general...don't get me started, I only use them if I have too...otherwise they are a very very painful bookie to use