(cant remember last time melbs backed it up? although tigs travel schedule is a worry- but they seemed to have more energy in the second half last week?)
GL to all the lads out there!
will be hopefully posting more bets through the weekend
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Record:8-5-1 (61.5%)+8.46units
EARLY LEANS:
Hawks -15.5 @$1.92 (h2h $1.47)
Tigers h2h @$1.90
Swans +36.5 @1.92 (h2h $5)
Blues 1-39 @$2.20 (h2h $1.26)
Roos -15.5 @$1.92 (h2h $1.48)
ALREADY PLAYED:
multi:
HAWKS-BLUES-ROOS1unit @$2.74
TIGERS h2h1unit @$1.90
(cant remember last time melbs backed it up? although tigs travel schedule is a worry- but they seemed to have more energy in the second half last week?)
GL to all the lads out there!
will be hopefully posting more bets through the weekend
punters must be laying some serious money atm on bombers. line has moved from +15.5 to +12.5? not to sure on why this is? but this also means hawks h2h odds have moved from $1.47 to $1.55.
the kangas have also gone from $1.48 to $1.53 but their line has only shortened by a point.
just thought i would share the insight boys
GL
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punters must be laying some serious money atm on bombers. line has moved from +15.5 to +12.5? not to sure on why this is? but this also means hawks h2h odds have moved from $1.47 to $1.55.
the kangas have also gone from $1.48 to $1.53 but their line has only shortened by a point.
punters must be laying some serious money atm on bombers. line has moved from +15.5 to +12.5? not to sure on why this is? but this also means hawks h2h odds have moved from $1.47 to $1.55.
the kangas have also gone from $1.48 to $1.53 but their line has only shortened by a point.
just thought i would share the insight boys
GL
No Roughy or Buddy 2 big losses i would say thats why they are slapping bombers
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Quote Originally Posted by rooboybaz:
punters must be laying some serious money atm on bombers. line has moved from +15.5 to +12.5? not to sure on why this is? but this also means hawks h2h odds have moved from $1.47 to $1.55.
the kangas have also gone from $1.48 to $1.53 but their line has only shortened by a point.
just thought i would share the insight boys
GL
No Roughy or Buddy 2 big losses i would say thats why they are slapping bombers
Would be nice if somebody could give an insight of the Nth Melb game (even tho its on Sunday) as to why the odds went up slightly. Given how bad of a team Port is, and how Nth Melb is the in form team, I think it should be a one sided affair?
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Would be nice if somebody could give an insight of the Nth Melb game (even tho its on Sunday) as to why the odds went up slightly. Given how bad of a team Port is, and how Nth Melb is the in form team, I think it should be a one sided affair?
ye not sure myself kiwi...they played only 6 weeks ago and North belted them by over 9 goals but this time it's in Adelaide. I get a feeling some of the Port forwards will play some good footy but it's really the midfield where they are breakng down and North are just dominating the midfield clearances right now. I guess if anythng, bookes have the insde word on literally everything so they sense this one will be close, I'm not buyng it and North with Petrie in career best form will win ths game by 4 goals.
Bombers form has been absolutely putrid! The worst display I have seen all year from any team apart from Suns and Port in the past 4 to 5 weeks. Hawks are going into this game missing upto 4 of their main starters from recent weeks and wll be stretched for height but Rioli and their midfield is still one of the best and if this game was played at Etihad instead of the MCG then you'd seriously have to consider Essendon. I reckon the MCG will play into the Hawks hands because they use the footy more efficiently and the larger expanses of the MCG will allow Rioli and Burgoyne to use the space and create major issues for the Bombers. Hawthorn have also played some tough teams recently and against Geelong they were pretty good and when you play those type of close games it conditions you and makes you better against teams of lesser quality such as the Bombers. You just never know which Essendon will turn up to play but Hawks are a class above even with 5 or more starters out of the side and they will likely wn it by 3 goals
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ye not sure myself kiwi...they played only 6 weeks ago and North belted them by over 9 goals but this time it's in Adelaide. I get a feeling some of the Port forwards will play some good footy but it's really the midfield where they are breakng down and North are just dominating the midfield clearances right now. I guess if anythng, bookes have the insde word on literally everything so they sense this one will be close, I'm not buyng it and North with Petrie in career best form will win ths game by 4 goals.
Bombers form has been absolutely putrid! The worst display I have seen all year from any team apart from Suns and Port in the past 4 to 5 weeks. Hawks are going into this game missing upto 4 of their main starters from recent weeks and wll be stretched for height but Rioli and their midfield is still one of the best and if this game was played at Etihad instead of the MCG then you'd seriously have to consider Essendon. I reckon the MCG will play into the Hawks hands because they use the footy more efficiently and the larger expanses of the MCG will allow Rioli and Burgoyne to use the space and create major issues for the Bombers. Hawthorn have also played some tough teams recently and against Geelong they were pretty good and when you play those type of close games it conditions you and makes you better against teams of lesser quality such as the Bombers. You just never know which Essendon will turn up to play but Hawks are a class above even with 5 or more starters out of the side and they will likely wn it by 3 goals
Would be nice if somebody could give an insight of the Nth Melb game (even tho its on Sunday) as to why the odds went up slightly. Given how bad of a team Port is, and how Nth Melb is the in form team, I think it should be a one sided affair?
i purely think its the fact kangas are still underrated. even when port was a top 4 team and roos were goin through post carey troubles, north still managed to give them serious trouble if not beating them. roos are missing mcmahon from their back line. but they got back grima last week who is also very important.
i think the roos will take this easily as they are only 2 points out of the top 8 (AMAZINGLY! and just imagine if they didnt choke against the lions and the swans a few weeks back)
i am contemplating taking roos to win by 40 or more on sportsbet.com.au which is paying $3.90!
what i find strange is roos h2h odds are still paying $1.53 but they line is now -12.5 when it was -14.5 the other day at the same h2h price
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Quote Originally Posted by kiwipride1983:
Would be nice if somebody could give an insight of the Nth Melb game (even tho its on Sunday) as to why the odds went up slightly. Given how bad of a team Port is, and how Nth Melb is the in form team, I think it should be a one sided affair?
i purely think its the fact kangas are still underrated. even when port was a top 4 team and roos were goin through post carey troubles, north still managed to give them serious trouble if not beating them. roos are missing mcmahon from their back line. but they got back grima last week who is also very important.
i think the roos will take this easily as they are only 2 points out of the top 8 (AMAZINGLY! and just imagine if they didnt choke against the lions and the swans a few weeks back)
i am contemplating taking roos to win by 40 or more on sportsbet.com.au which is paying $3.90!
what i find strange is roos h2h odds are still paying $1.53 but they line is now -12.5 when it was -14.5 the other day at the same h2h price
ye not sure myself kiwi...they played only 6 weeks ago and North belted them by over 9 goals but this time it's in Adelaide. I get a feeling some of the Port forwards will play some good footy but it's really the midfield where they are breakng down and North are just dominating the midfield clearances right now. I guess if anythng, bookes have the insde word on literally everything so they sense this one will be close, I'm not buyng it and North with Petrie in career best form will win ths game by 4 goals.
Bombers form has been absolutely putrid! The worst display I have seen all year from any team apart from Suns and Port in the past 4 to 5 weeks. Hawks are going into this game missing upto 4 of their main starters from recent weeks and wll be stretched for height but Rioli and their midfield is still one of the best and if this game was played at Etihad instead of the MCG then you'd seriously have to consider Essendon. I reckon the MCG will play into the Hawks hands because they use the footy more efficiently and the larger expanses of the MCG will allow Rioli and Burgoyne to use the space and create major issues for the Bombers. Hawthorn have also played some tough teams recently and against Geelong they were pretty good and when you play those type of close games it conditions you and makes you better against teams of lesser quality such as the Bombers. You just never know which Essendon will turn up to play but Hawks are a class above even with 5 or more starters out of the side and they will likely wn it by 3 goals
tonights game worries me slightly. i had already realised the loss of buddy and roughy. but missing shoemakers now is a big loss. a big team v a small team is a bit of a scare. but hawks usage of the ball right now is second to none. and if they keep the delivery low or even along the ground goin inside their forward 50 then they could dominate this game.
line is also now only -9.5 now and they are $1.64
BOL bro!
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Quote Originally Posted by Geelong:
ye not sure myself kiwi...they played only 6 weeks ago and North belted them by over 9 goals but this time it's in Adelaide. I get a feeling some of the Port forwards will play some good footy but it's really the midfield where they are breakng down and North are just dominating the midfield clearances right now. I guess if anythng, bookes have the insde word on literally everything so they sense this one will be close, I'm not buyng it and North with Petrie in career best form will win ths game by 4 goals.
Bombers form has been absolutely putrid! The worst display I have seen all year from any team apart from Suns and Port in the past 4 to 5 weeks. Hawks are going into this game missing upto 4 of their main starters from recent weeks and wll be stretched for height but Rioli and their midfield is still one of the best and if this game was played at Etihad instead of the MCG then you'd seriously have to consider Essendon. I reckon the MCG will play into the Hawks hands because they use the footy more efficiently and the larger expanses of the MCG will allow Rioli and Burgoyne to use the space and create major issues for the Bombers. Hawthorn have also played some tough teams recently and against Geelong they were pretty good and when you play those type of close games it conditions you and makes you better against teams of lesser quality such as the Bombers. You just never know which Essendon will turn up to play but Hawks are a class above even with 5 or more starters out of the side and they will likely wn it by 3 goals
tonights game worries me slightly. i had already realised the loss of buddy and roughy. but missing shoemakers now is a big loss. a big team v a small team is a bit of a scare. but hawks usage of the ball right now is second to none. and if they keep the delivery low or even along the ground goin inside their forward 50 then they could dominate this game.
damn...it's probably too late for you to change the Tigers bet right? I got a very good feeling the Demons win it by 28 points.
They play an attacking brand of football when placed against a mediocre backline will cause major headaches. Take the Demons ML or whatever the line will be now
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damn...it's probably too late for you to change the Tigers bet right? I got a very good feeling the Demons win it by 28 points.
They play an attacking brand of football when placed against a mediocre backline will cause major headaches. Take the Demons ML or whatever the line will be now
I don't understand the rationale behind a multi bet that spans three days.
Why not just bet Hawthorn ML, then if you wish, roll your winnings into Richmond today? Any advantage you gain from subtle line movement isn't going to be great enough to justify tying your money up with the books for the entire weekend.
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I don't understand the rationale behind a multi bet that spans three days.
Why not just bet Hawthorn ML, then if you wish, roll your winnings into Richmond today? Any advantage you gain from subtle line movement isn't going to be great enough to justify tying your money up with the books for the entire weekend.
damn...it's probably too late for you to change the Tigers bet right? I got a very good feeling the Demons win it by 28 points.
They play an attacking brand of football when placed against a mediocre backline will cause major headaches. Take the Demons ML or whatever the line will be now
28 points hey? thats quite specific
well i actually see this a let down spot for melbs. IMO tigs win this by 3+ goals
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by Geelong:
damn...it's probably too late for you to change the Tigers bet right? I got a very good feeling the Demons win it by 28 points.
They play an attacking brand of football when placed against a mediocre backline will cause major headaches. Take the Demons ML or whatever the line will be now
28 points hey? thats quite specific
well i actually see this a let down spot for melbs. IMO tigs win this by 3+ goals
I don't understand the rationale behind a multi bet that spans three days.
Why not just bet Hawthorn ML, then if you wish, roll your winnings into Richmond today? Any advantage you gain from subtle line movement isn't going to be great enough to justify tying your money up with the books for the entire weekend.
No offense but i couldnt disagree more! i would understand if hawks ML was paying at least $1.90. but where is the value in 0.47units? and just say they lost! i would have lost 1unit. then if i try to make it up by betting blues money line which is a measly 0.26units and they do win. i win .26units after already being down 1unit. so really have made fuck all back. and if they lose then im down 2units not 1.
and lets just say hawks won and i did profit .46units. then 'rolled the winnings' on blues and they won. i would only profit roughly 0.12units. then after that say i rolled all my winnings (at this stage would be roughly .58units) on the ROOS ML i would only look to win .86units for the weekend from all three games! so where would the logic be in that?
i would completely understand where u were coming from if the games i had wagered on were paying $1.90 or more. but there is just no value in betting on clear favs ML's. because what u are risking aint worth what u COULD win! if hawks lost last night i wouldnt have chased it with another bet today/tonight. i would have just handed the loss. and in the process only losing 1unit. not a possible 3 from chasing and losing.
as u can see sometimes i do just get on single lines/ML's depending on the value.
and look at it this way- just say hawks/blues do win (which i was confident would happen) my ML value for ROOS to beat port is now at $2.74 not $1.50 which is what the books are offering.
on another note- these multis that 'span the weekend' seem to be doin me alright so far this year. i just try to find 2 or 3 teams which i believe have the best shot at winning their games but dont have enough value in themselves multi them together and see what happens. plus its not like i tied up all my winnings in the books this we. plenty to play with if i feel lucky
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by Alistair:
I don't understand the rationale behind a multi bet that spans three days.
Why not just bet Hawthorn ML, then if you wish, roll your winnings into Richmond today? Any advantage you gain from subtle line movement isn't going to be great enough to justify tying your money up with the books for the entire weekend.
No offense but i couldnt disagree more! i would understand if hawks ML was paying at least $1.90. but where is the value in 0.47units? and just say they lost! i would have lost 1unit. then if i try to make it up by betting blues money line which is a measly 0.26units and they do win. i win .26units after already being down 1unit. so really have made fuck all back. and if they lose then im down 2units not 1.
and lets just say hawks won and i did profit .46units. then 'rolled the winnings' on blues and they won. i would only profit roughly 0.12units. then after that say i rolled all my winnings (at this stage would be roughly .58units) on the ROOS ML i would only look to win .86units for the weekend from all three games! so where would the logic be in that?
i would completely understand where u were coming from if the games i had wagered on were paying $1.90 or more. but there is just no value in betting on clear favs ML's. because what u are risking aint worth what u COULD win! if hawks lost last night i wouldnt have chased it with another bet today/tonight. i would have just handed the loss. and in the process only losing 1unit. not a possible 3 from chasing and losing.
as u can see sometimes i do just get on single lines/ML's depending on the value.
and look at it this way- just say hawks/blues do win (which i was confident would happen) my ML value for ROOS to beat port is now at $2.74 not $1.50 which is what the books are offering.
on another note- these multis that 'span the weekend' seem to be doin me alright so far this year. i just try to find 2 or 3 teams which i believe have the best shot at winning their games but dont have enough value in themselves multi them together and see what happens. plus its not like i tied up all my winnings in the books this we. plenty to play with if i feel lucky
No offense but i couldnt disagree more! i would understand if hawks ML was paying at least $1.90. but where is the value in 0.47units? and just say they lost! i would have lost 1unit. then if i try to make it up by betting blues money line which is a measly 0.26units and they do win. i win .26units after already being down 1unit. so really have made fuck all back. and if they lose then im down 2units not 1.
and lets just say hawks won and i did profit .46units. then 'rolled the winnings' on blues and they won. i would only profit roughly 0.12units. then after that say i rolled all my winnings (at this stage would be roughly .58units) on the ROOS ML i would only look to win .86units for the weekend from all three games! so where would the logic be in that?
i would completely understand where u were coming from if the games i had wagered on were paying $1.90 or more. but there is just no value in betting on clear favs ML's. because what u are risking aint worth what u COULD win! if hawks lost last night i wouldnt have chased it with another bet today/tonight. i would have just handed the loss. and in the process only losing 1unit. not a possible 3 from chasing and losing.
as u can see sometimes i do just get on single lines/ML's depending on the value.
and look at it this way- just say hawks/blues do win (which i was confident would happen) my ML value for ROOS to beat port is now at $2.74 not $1.50 which is what the books are offering.
on another note- these multis that 'span the weekend' seem to be doin me alright so far this year. i just try to find 2 or 3 teams which i believe have the best shot at winning their games but dont have enough value in themselves multi them together and see what happens. plus its not like i tied up all my winnings in the books this we. plenty to play with if i feel lucky
BOL
The bomb... Onya Rooboy...
0
Quote Originally Posted by rooboybaz:
No offense but i couldnt disagree more! i would understand if hawks ML was paying at least $1.90. but where is the value in 0.47units? and just say they lost! i would have lost 1unit. then if i try to make it up by betting blues money line which is a measly 0.26units and they do win. i win .26units after already being down 1unit. so really have made fuck all back. and if they lose then im down 2units not 1.
and lets just say hawks won and i did profit .46units. then 'rolled the winnings' on blues and they won. i would only profit roughly 0.12units. then after that say i rolled all my winnings (at this stage would be roughly .58units) on the ROOS ML i would only look to win .86units for the weekend from all three games! so where would the logic be in that?
i would completely understand where u were coming from if the games i had wagered on were paying $1.90 or more. but there is just no value in betting on clear favs ML's. because what u are risking aint worth what u COULD win! if hawks lost last night i wouldnt have chased it with another bet today/tonight. i would have just handed the loss. and in the process only losing 1unit. not a possible 3 from chasing and losing.
as u can see sometimes i do just get on single lines/ML's depending on the value.
and look at it this way- just say hawks/blues do win (which i was confident would happen) my ML value for ROOS to beat port is now at $2.74 not $1.50 which is what the books are offering.
on another note- these multis that 'span the weekend' seem to be doin me alright so far this year. i just try to find 2 or 3 teams which i believe have the best shot at winning their games but dont have enough value in themselves multi them together and see what happens. plus its not like i tied up all my winnings in the books this we. plenty to play with if i feel lucky
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