Bulldogs have lost their back line. Both play slingshot footy. I'm just surprised by the low total on this game. I bit last week on a high total and will bit again on what I consider to be a low total for both these teams.
Roos OVER 190.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
7-2 on the few bets I have placed.
What is it with Fridays and OVERs at the moment?
Bulldogs have lost their back line. Both play slingshot footy. I'm just surprised by the low total on this game. I bit last week on a high total and will bit again on what I consider to be a low total for both these teams.
I was thinking the same thing mate! Min 110 Roos and 90 Dogs... As always, I do twitch a bit when I make plays that are so freaking obvious, haha! On this one, tho, I'll pay to see just how they don't hit 200!
365 hasn't offered a total on this game at all, interestingly...
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I was thinking the same thing mate! Min 110 Roos and 90 Dogs... As always, I do twitch a bit when I make plays that are so freaking obvious, haha! On this one, tho, I'll pay to see just how they don't hit 200!
365 hasn't offered a total on this game at all, interestingly...
I was going to chime in on this total before the match (I had 196.5 on offer) because I needed some Friday action and this was the only game going.
I read last week a great piece online somewhere about the smoke and mirrors of the Dogs. That their defence is great for sure. However, their attack is a mirage. And then it produced a bevy of statistical information and efficency numbers which showed how pedestrian the Dogs attack really was. It then recommended sniping Unders on the Dogs for the season. It was eye-opening.
The reason why I was on that article was because Dogs matches were all hitting the Under before last week. And the author had taken it upon himself to get to the bottom of it.
I wanted to POUND THE LIVING HELL out of Under 196.5 (huge number) after reading that article, but chickened out and went to bed action-less. Mainly for the reasons ecoute mentioned, Dogs backline is wrecked, North plays pinball footie, this is the first real opponent for the Dogs...maybe the stats didn't apply to this match???
Imagine my (non-) surprise when I get to work and the match is finished without even 100 being scored.
Keep this in mind for the Doggies matches coming up if there is anything near a prohibitive total. I reckon the books might still be slow to bring these numbers down.
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I was going to chime in on this total before the match (I had 196.5 on offer) because I needed some Friday action and this was the only game going.
I read last week a great piece online somewhere about the smoke and mirrors of the Dogs. That their defence is great for sure. However, their attack is a mirage. And then it produced a bevy of statistical information and efficency numbers which showed how pedestrian the Dogs attack really was. It then recommended sniping Unders on the Dogs for the season. It was eye-opening.
The reason why I was on that article was because Dogs matches were all hitting the Under before last week. And the author had taken it upon himself to get to the bottom of it.
I wanted to POUND THE LIVING HELL out of Under 196.5 (huge number) after reading that article, but chickened out and went to bed action-less. Mainly for the reasons ecoute mentioned, Dogs backline is wrecked, North plays pinball footie, this is the first real opponent for the Dogs...maybe the stats didn't apply to this match???
Imagine my (non-) surprise when I get to work and the match is finished without even 100 being scored.
Keep this in mind for the Doggies matches coming up if there is anything near a prohibitive total. I reckon the books might still be slow to bring these numbers down.
This is a really crappy round. I have leans all over but not heavy enough to pull triggers.
I like Melbourne/St. Kilda Over 184.5 for tonight and I am an Under player in the AFL.
Other leans are: Port +19.5 and Brisbane +35.5 or higher for whatever you can get them against me Swannies. Swans are #1 in I50 and Brissy is 16th. However, this line is fishy as hell and has been dropping like a rock. The ML has drop 25% in the past 36 hours. That play is a odds-watching play only and not based on on-field reality.
With the same mentality as the Swans game, Calrton giving up 17.5 to anyone other than a group of geriatrics is asinine, so they might be the bet here.
Much like the Dogs/North Under, everything this round seems to be based on lines and their movement as opposed to actual eye-test reality.
I might just mortgage my house on Adelaide, sweat like sh!t during the pre-game questioning my sanity, and then watch the match.
Last time I did that was on Brisbane over a winless Dees side as a 78.5-point favorite. Lions were up 11 with 90 seconds left and proceeded to lose two straight center bounces that were rocket kicked to the forward 50 for goals. Melbourne won by 1. I don't want to embarrass myself by describing what state I was in after that mess.
The next morning, come to find out Brisbane had all their WAGs and children in the sheds before the match discussing vacation plans (they were off the following round) and playing around with the kids. They had absolutely no match focus.
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This is a really crappy round. I have leans all over but not heavy enough to pull triggers.
I like Melbourne/St. Kilda Over 184.5 for tonight and I am an Under player in the AFL.
Other leans are: Port +19.5 and Brisbane +35.5 or higher for whatever you can get them against me Swannies. Swans are #1 in I50 and Brissy is 16th. However, this line is fishy as hell and has been dropping like a rock. The ML has drop 25% in the past 36 hours. That play is a odds-watching play only and not based on on-field reality.
With the same mentality as the Swans game, Calrton giving up 17.5 to anyone other than a group of geriatrics is asinine, so they might be the bet here.
Much like the Dogs/North Under, everything this round seems to be based on lines and their movement as opposed to actual eye-test reality.
I might just mortgage my house on Adelaide, sweat like sh!t during the pre-game questioning my sanity, and then watch the match.
Last time I did that was on Brisbane over a winless Dees side as a 78.5-point favorite. Lions were up 11 with 90 seconds left and proceeded to lose two straight center bounces that were rocket kicked to the forward 50 for goals. Melbourne won by 1. I don't want to embarrass myself by describing what state I was in after that mess.
The next morning, come to find out Brisbane had all their WAGs and children in the sheds before the match discussing vacation plans (they were off the following round) and playing around with the kids. They had absolutely no match focus.
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