Posted:
#1
Adelaide Crows ML vs GWS Giants @ 1.87
Write up to come.
Write up to come.
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AFL ROUND 10 MEGA PLAY
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Posted:
#2
I like these spots, so let's look at it in a little bit more detail:
HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE
The Crows play Adelaide Oval very well. I don't think it is fortress-like just yet like Domain Stadium in Perth is for the Eagles, but they're getting there. They have a 3-1 record at home in 2016, 75% win rate, with their lone loss coming against a very strong and determined Cats side the other week. Their margin in wins at home this season exceeds 5 goals.
GOOD TEAMS THAT STRUGGLE PLAYING AWAY
I still have GWS well entrenched in this category. As I do the Bulldogs and the Eagles to some extent. It's not as if they can't win away from home, but they don't seem to get that relentless attitude and speed that they do playing in Sydney.
I took the same attitude when they played in Fremantle where they failed to cover the line and GWS have only played 3 times away this season for a reasonable 2-1 record (though the wins only came against the Suns and Saints). I like the hostility Adelaide Oval will present.
Of course this season is different, but GWS win rate away from home last season was 27% !
KEY MATCHUPS
Adelaide Back line v GWS Forward Line - EVEN
GWS Forwards can be very dangerous with Cameron, Patton and probably Lobb back from injury with Johnson and Greene running through there as well. But the Crows tall defenders matchup well highlighted with Talia and they have enough small defenders who can damage you the other way (Brodie Smith) to cover this.
Rucks / Midfield - Slight Lean GWS
Still think Jacobs brings more to a game than what Mumford does in the ruck. Mumford is mainly known for his aggression but injuries have really riddled his career which is a shame because he could well have been one of the premier ruckmen of the comp.
The loss of Dangerfield this season has hurt the Crows engine room this season obviously, leaving a lot of the heavy lifting to Sloane. The likes of Ward, Shiel, Coniglio for GWS gives them the upper hand here.
Adelaide Forward Line vs GWS Back Line - HEAVY ADELAIDE
This is where I see it happening.
GWS back line is decimated. They were already short-handed last week and have lost a further 3 defenders in their win over the Bulldogs. All those 3 won't make it up for this week and I don't believe Davis will be back in time.
Put this up against Walker, Lynch and Jenkins with Betts, Cameron and Milera at their feet and that is a very dangerous forward pack.
I'm sure I will have countless more plays to fulfil my action needs but these games take more of my attention and thought.
As always, best of luck to all.
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Posted:
#6
Also, the lines have been inflated this round in favor of the underdogs. The books have taken a beating on favorites, especially the big names with a few exceptions, in the past two weeks.
They are inflating the spread to nab those who will be going back to the well one more time.
Just look at Gold Coast. From -3.5 to -50.5 to -81.5 last three matches, all against similar quality opponents.
Other sides inflated as well.
This is a dog round for me.
They are inflating the spread to nab those who will be going back to the well one more time.
Just look at Gold Coast. From -3.5 to -50.5 to -81.5 last three matches, all against similar quality opponents.
Other sides inflated as well.
This is a dog round for me.
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Posted:
#8
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Just the fact that the red hot GWS opens at a pick 'em says everything you need to know: books fishing for Giants money.
Adelaide or no bet based on that alone, regardless of stats or trends.
Good luck.
Just the fact that the red hot GWS opens at a pick 'em says everything you need to know: books fishing for Giants money.
Adelaide or no bet based on that alone, regardless of stats or trends.
Good luck.
It doesn't take much for an AFL team to cool off. Look at what the Pies did to the Cats.
This is a perfect opportunity for the Crows in front of a hostile crowd in Adelaide at night to notch up a good win.
I think they take this comfortably by 3+ goals.
Knowing my luck GWS will win by 120 points
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Posted:
#9
I always like betting games where you don't have points give or give up. Just focusing on the better team. It's really difficult this Adel/GWS game.
Years ago I had a professional gambler give me some tips about wagering. He gave me a list of situational angles that could factor in a teams motivation for the game/match.
I have since developed this into a weighted list that I put greater importance on some factors than others.
Tell me how in order of importance you'd rank these factors guys.
In no particular order, Fade Public Bettors, Lookaheads, Letdowns, Power Rankings, Revenge, Bounceback, Matchups, Better Team, Momentum, Home Ground Advantage, Who's the Public Doubt? I've since added my own for AFL, Milestone Games, Top 10 Outs (Players), Game Value (Importance Factor)
I rank these 14 to 1 and if the most important factor is 14, I give that a value of 14, then rank them down to 1 and count up what the teams total and see who comes out in front. That then forms my leans, along with the data I keep as well.
Let me know what you think and how you'd rank them fellas!
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Posted:
#11
Good luck peakay89
But I think the GWS will smash the crows, the Crows have been a bit lucky for my liking as they average more inside 50 against and the crows have been getting killed with the center bounce clearances as they don't have enough pace on the outside. as the GWS will have way to much pace.
But as Im not betting on this game I wish you well and for your sake I hope im wrong.
But I think the GWS will smash the crows, the Crows have been a bit lucky for my liking as they average more inside 50 against and the crows have been getting killed with the center bounce clearances as they don't have enough pace on the outside. as the GWS will have way to much pace.
But as Im not betting on this game I wish you well and for your sake I hope im wrong.
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Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by Enjoi:
I like all the factors that you incorporate into your capping. It seems very thorough mate.
I like all the factors that you incorporate into your capping. It seems very thorough mate.
Any thoughts on the Swans/Norf matchup tonight?
All my numbers suggest a play on the Swans, I got them last night at -14.5 at Pinnacle so I'm happy with that price. Also the Swans are 9-0 in the 2nd Half being the highest scoring half as well. On average there's a 23 point difference between their games average half scores. It pays around $1.70 odd if you like that type of betting too.
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Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
How on earth is the game total so high for the Swans?
How on earth is the game total so high for the Swans?
Roos have more forward options than the Swans are used to seeing so that will keep them honest up front. Also, Richards is out for the Swans. North will try to play an open, expansive game and run out the Swans on their feet. Not saying this will be successful, but the Swans will have to put up their fair number of points in order to beat this Roos side.
I think 177.5 is a smart number and could easily see a 105-89 game or a 88-76 game as well. I'd stay off it either way.
Roos +18.5 would be the best bet for this match. More points in the second half too hits for the Swans because of their clampdown style on the ruck. That pressure invariably fades with fatigue in the second half and the Swans have been a stellar Third Quarter team under Longmire forever. Their Third Quarters are the Swans power hour and usually when they put their stamp on the game.
Good luck!
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Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Saints/Freo Under 179.5 seems like the play of the night for me.
Good luck.
Saints/Freo Under 179.5 seems like the play of the night for me.
Good luck.
Disclaimer: St. Kilda will be kicking into the triple-digits tonight. I wish I could get a team total on them. This bet is banking on Freo staying under 70 points. The Dockers look disinterested right now and here's hoping the Saints choke them out at Etihad.
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Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Disclaimer: St. Kilda will be kicking into the triple-digits tonight. I wish I could get a team total on them. This bet is banking on Freo staying under 70 points. The Dockers look disinterested right now and here's hoping the Saints choke them out at Etihad.
Disclaimer: St. Kilda will be kicking into the triple-digits tonight. I wish I could get a team total on them. This bet is banking on Freo staying under 70 points. The Dockers look disinterested right now and here's hoping the Saints choke them out at Etihad.
Second and Final Disclaimer:
Wow! More strange line movements. Going to change up my picks to match. Final card for tonight:
Brisbane/Carlton UNDER 204.5
Melbourne/Port Adelaide OVER 191.5
St. Kilda/Fremantle OVER 178.5
A lot of plays on the Saints/Freo Over coming in all week but that line keeps dropping. I wonder if they will be playing with the roof open? Somebody knows something so I will back the Overs in that one going against my feelings all week. Hopefully I can hit two of three....
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Posted:
#20
Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:
Smart money is on the Under buddy, if the line keeps dropping despite transactions on the over... Play is under or stay away IMO.... Plus, Freo and Over is an oxymoron, haha!
Smart money is on the Under buddy, if the line keeps dropping despite transactions on the over... Play is under or stay away IMO.... Plus, Freo and Over is an oxymoron, haha!
Yeah, I caught that but there is no edit on this site. What I meant to say was that everyone was favoring the Over all week, hence my original Under play. It was my play of the round, actually. But as I saw the line dropping and dropping (reverse line movement), I looked further into the match to see what the hell was happening and found some things that pushed me the other way.
As I already liked the Saints to get triple digits, it was all about Freo. I am hearing the roof might be open and, after looking at Freo's record against average teams at Etihad, which is good, I flipped.
Considering that it looks like I will be wrong on my first two totals, I am assuming an 0-3 round for totals. HAHAHA!
I literally should just flip a coin on these as I would have a better record.
I think I am so trained on North American totals that I haven't gotten used to the fact that steam moves don't mean as much in AFL. If it goes from 201.5 to 206.5, the OVER, not the Under, is still probably the smart play. In the NBA or NFL, it's the opposite.
Thankfully, totals plays are for sh!ts and giggles. Mainly, when I can't find a side I like and rather just watch the game.
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Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:
Sorry I have been MIA today but the Crows went into 3/4 time 40+ points up and although GWS mounted a charge in the last it was pretty comfortable in the end.
Sorry I have been MIA today but the Crows went into 3/4 time 40+ points up and although GWS mounted a charge in the last it was pretty comfortable in the end.
Congatulations to those who tailed, now go out and buy your mother something nice with the extra change.
Be back soon for more.
Good call on the crows game peekay, I really thought GWS would win that game but glad the crows won for you.
I did take GWS team total over 22.5 points in the last qrt with a big bet so i am happy (they had a point to prove after that 3rd qrt)
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