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AFL Round 11 - Discussion

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Posted: #1
Hi Everyone,
 
Here are the correct ML odds for this weeks round, and as per usual the lines are just guesses:
 
North Melb ($5.15) Vs Geel ($1.16)               Line 38
 
Rich ($2.65) Vs Adel ($1.47)                         Line 20
 
West Coast ($3.90) Vs Syd ($1.25)               Line 28
 
Ess ($6.65) Vs Haw ($1.10)                          Line 41
 
Bris ($1.17) Vs Freo ($4.95)                          Line 39
 
St Kilda ($2.75) Vs Bulldogs ($1.44)               Line 19
 
Port ($1.12) Vs Carl ($6.15)                           Line 43
 
Melb ($8.75) Vs Coll ($1.06)                          Line 50
 
Of the above really like Bris and Collingwood.  Let's discuss..  
 
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Posted: #2
With or without Brown, Fremantle will get their arse raped by about 10 goals at the Gabba.

Melbourne are good value - they always seem to beat Collingwood!

Adelaide are awesome value.

Sydney @ $1.25 are good value too - they will flog the Eagles.

One I don't understand and it should be more like $1.25 - $3.90 odd is the Bulldogs game. The bookies seem to be putting that price on the Saints because of their strong win over Melbourne. But they only played Melbourne. No big deal. $1.44 for the Dogs is a steal and I advise people to take it now before it goes in. This should have opened up easily below $1.30.
 
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Posted: #3
1 1999 20 28.13 (181) vs 9.13 (67) Gab WON 114 3
2 2000 22 23.18 (156) vs 7.7 (49) Gab WON 107 6
3 2001 5 25.21 (171) vs 19.8 (122) Gab WON 49 9
4 2002 9 16.13 (109) vs 11.13 (79) Gab WON 30 1
5 2006 9 21.15 (141) vs 10.13 (73) Gab WON 68 10
6 2007 6 17.18 (120) vs 10.15 (75) Gab WON 45 3
 
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1 1999 20 28.13 (181) vs 9.13 (67) Gab WON 114 3
2 2000 22 23.18 (156) vs 7.7 (49) Gab WON 107 6
3 2001 5 25.21 (171) vs 19.8 (122) Gab WON 49 9
4 2002 9 16.13 (109) vs 11.13 (79) Gab WON 30 1
5 2006 9 21.15 (141) vs 10.13 (73) Gab WON 68 10
6 2007 6 17.18 (120) vs 10.15 (75) Gab WON 45 3
 
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Posted: #5
That above is Fremantle's record at the Gabba.
 
I think you all know who to back at the line.
 
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The Bris game is more than likely the game I have been really waiting for...finally I think that Freo now 'will' conceed playing in the finals, and after having lost 5 games in a row after leading at at 3/4 time...this game looks like an absolute blow out special. Throw in the fact that this is the biggest road trip of any team, and add one final but very important fact...this is a 1.10pm Qld time start, which is 11.10am 'body' clock for Freo players and I don't think they have the experience to cope with this factor.
 
Also Coll looks like an absolute winner as well, playing at the G in front of a big crowd on a public holiday and playing the house down at the moment, and with an added few days rest to help Rocca feel fresh and ready.
 
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Posted: #7
Only first thoughts but I'll be thinking about putting money on;
 
North, Richmond or the Saints (Bolar, I agree odds should be more toward the bulldogs) to win the first quarter.
 
I've been impressed with how the Saints start. They have won a lot of first quarters this year, especially impressed with how they beat Brisbane in the first quarter, out of the middle, clearances and up forward.
 
If WC were playing anybody else I'd back then to win the first quarter too.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

That above is Fremantle's record at the Gabba.
 
I think you all know who to back at the line.


WOW!  That is shocking.  Could that hold true again this round?
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

The Bris game is more than likely the game I have been really waiting for...finally I think that Freo now 'will' conceed playing in the finals, and after having lost 5 games in a row after leading at at 3/4 time...this game looks like an absolute blow out special. Throw in the fact that this is the biggest road trip of any team, and add one final but very important fact...this is a 1.10pm Qld time start, which is 11.10am 'body' clock for Freo players and I don't think they have the experience to cope with this factor.
 


You've been talking about "that game" for a while and if this really is it, I'm going to tail.  Especially since Freo's record at the Gabba looks horrendous.  Keep us posted!
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Hi Everyone,
 
Here are the correct ML odds for this weeks round, and as per usual the lines are just guesses:
 
North Melb ($5.15) Vs Geel ($1.16)               Line 38
 
Rich ($2.65) Vs Adel ($1.47)                         Line 20
 
West Coast ($3.90) Vs Syd ($1.25)               Line 28
 
Ess ($6.65) Vs Haw ($1.10)                          Line 41
 
Bris ($1.17) Vs Freo ($4.95)                          Line 39
 
St Kilda ($2.75) Vs Bulldogs ($1.44)               Line 19
 
Port ($1.12) Vs Carl ($6.15)                           Line 43
 
Melb ($8.75) Vs Coll ($1.06)                          Line 50
 
Of the above really like Bris and Collingwood.  Let's discuss..  


Initial leans in BOLD.  No research.
 
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Bored HOH...not much action in here this week!
 
I will more than likely play the following fav's...Geel, Bris & Coll, with Coll and Bris looking very much like POW's. Just have to wait on the status of Brown before pulling the trigger on Bris 
 
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Posted: #13
Lines are out as per Sportingbet:
 
Kang Vs Geel (-31.5)
 
Rich Vs Adel (-10.5)
 
Ess Vs Haw (-38.5)
 
Eagles Vs Syd (-22)
 
Bris (-34.5) Vs Freo
 
Saints Vs Bulldogs (-13.5)
 
Port (-36.5) Vs Carl
 
Melb Vs Coll (-47.5)
 
Boy was I off with the lines, seems like there is some fishy stuff going on here; Rich get touched up by Syd and yet Adel are only laying 10.5, Syd on a roll and Eagles get belted by 100 points but there line is at  22, Bris and Freo as this line could only be due to 'maybe' Brown not playing otherwise it should be like 45, Bulldogs only laying 13.5 after a great win against the Hawks and the Melb line 'should' be a bit higher as Coll are def one of the form sides at the moment playing a Demons team which I believe (as per AFL website) have to rely on Miller as their target forward
 Miller
 
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With McGrath out this week, lets hope Roe and especially Brown and Drummond are fit to play for the lions this week.

I can't give enough praise to Drummond, for a guy thats only played 37 games, he plays like 100-150 gamer

The lions defence won't be nearly as effective with those two out. But with their attack on the football and them being second in the league in tackles they'll still win comfortably.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Lines are out as per Sportingbet:
 
Kang Vs Geel (-31.5)
 
Rich Vs Adel (-10.5)
 
Ess Vs Haw (-38.5)
 
Eagles Vs Syd (-22)
 
Bris (-34.5) Vs Freo
 
Saints Vs Bulldogs (-13.5)
 
Port (-36.5) Vs Carl
 
Melb Vs Coll (-47.5)
 
Boy was I off with the lines, seems like there is some fishy stuff going on here; Rich get touched up by Syd and yet Adel are only laying 10.5, Syd on a roll and Eagles get belted by 100 points but there line is at  22, Bris and Freo as this line could only be due to 'maybe' Brown not playing otherwise it should be like 45, Bulldogs only laying 13.5 after a great win against the Hawks and the Melb line 'should' be a bit higher as Coll are def one of the form sides at the moment playing a Demons team which I believe (as per AFL website) have to rely on Miller as their target forward
 Miller


Only the two in bold jump out at my now, before I have had any time to look more in detail.  One thing though, Roos has his boys absolutely focused on West Coast this round.  He is calling this the match that characterizes the Swans and their performance will speak volumes.  There will be no let-down by the Swans this weekend.

IF that means they win and cover, I do not know yet.
 
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Posted: #16
Have we all died over here this week?
 
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Posted: #17
Its been a bit quiet hasn't it. I'm waiting for sides to be listed this evening before making anymore predictions. There are quite a number of players having fitness tests which could change lines depending if they're in or not...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Its been a bit quiet hasn't it. I'm waiting for sides to be listed this evening before making anymore predictions. There are quite a number of players having fitness tests which could change lines depending if they're in or not...

I'm a bit late to the game.  Usually I check the footy news in the morning.  Was a bit late.  Heard about North's injury troubles....rush online to get me Geelong wager in and it is CLOSED.  FARQUE!  I almost jumped on -32.5 last night but wanted to wait until this morning to make sure.

Man, would that have been brilliant....

 
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Check out my thread HOH as I still think the new Geel line of -36.5 is a bargin!

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Check out my thread HOH as I still think the new Geel line of -36.5 is a bargin!



If they reopen the line at or near this, I am biting.  But it is still closed.  I would have played -32.5 for the max bet had it still been open.  Rot.
 
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Posted: #21
Most Aust. books have it at 35/36 now. Thompson and Jones are pretty key outs for North Melbourne but don't warrant more than a 3-4 point line shift.
 
I'd be just a little wary here. It was expected that Geelong would be steaming the week after losing by 86, and they came out and covered accordingly. But are the Cats the same team that came out pissed every week last year and gave sides a hammering? Having been there, and won the flag, they look a little more content to do "just enough" each week, knowing that the real business is still months away.
 
And this is the first of only two FNF for the Kangas this season. I'd suggest they will be determined to put up a decent showing.
 
Geelong are probably still the bet here; with matchups and injuries heavily weighted in Geelong's favour. But I don't think it is an open-and-shut case of Geelong covering here.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mercurial:

Most Aust. books have it at 35/36 now. Thompson and Jones are pretty key outs for North Melbourne but don't warrant more than a 3-4 point line shift.
 
I'd be just a little wary here. It was expected that Geelong would be steaming the week after losing by 86, and they came out and covered accordingly. But are the Cats the same team that came out pissed every week last year and gave sides a hammering? Having been there, and won the flag, they look a little more content to do "just enough" each week, knowing that the real business is still months away.
 
And this is the first of only two FNF for the Kangas this season. I'd suggest they will be determined to put up a decent showing.
 
Geelong are probably still the bet here; with matchups and injuries heavily weighted in Geelong's favour. But I don't think it is an open-and-shut case of Geelong covering here.

I think you'll find its at -39.5 and continuing to move the cats way

 
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Quote Originally Posted by mercurial:

Most Aust. books have it at 35/36 now. Thompson and Jones are pretty key outs for North Melbourne but don't warrant more than a 3-4 point line shift.
 
I'd be just a little wary here. It was expected that Geelong would be steaming the week after losing by 86, and they came out and covered accordingly. But are the Cats the same team that came out pissed every week last year and gave sides a hammering? Having been there, and won the flag, they look a little more content to do "just enough" each week, knowing that the real business is still months away.
 
And this is the first of only two FNF for the Kangas this season. I'd suggest they will be determined to put up a decent showing.
 
Geelong are probably still the bet here; with matchups and injuries heavily weighted in Geelong's favour. But I don't think it is an open-and-shut case of Geelong covering here.


I liked Geelong at -32.5 to begin with and waited too long to get it in.  Thompson and Jones are definitely worth a goal differential, IMO, and there for -38.5 is about right.
 
 
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Posted: #24
hmm, I was liking Freo the most until I read this, will probably still play it.  They bring in some decent players and I don't think they continue to get hammered without a fight.  Gabba or not, Lions may underestimate a match where most expect a blowout.  Richmond is another, disgraceful performance last week.  Line is down to +8.5 which is really odd imo.
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