AFL Round 12 - Pies v Dees on Queens Bday

I've been quiet because there's been some really variable results. 

Swans are getting better, Tigers too many injuries. GC getting back to expectations. Roos and Blues changing coaches to mess things up.

I think the Pies win this by 20-30. I think Melbourne are going to play better but I think the Pies respond to the unexpected loss against the Dockers in Melb. I think it's the reality check they needed. They were consistently playing the 4Qtr 3 goals better than their opponents and lost the contested ball. 

I see this game being a free flowing game. Having May and Lever back will help the rebound (if they aren't rusty) but it's not really going to stop Cox on the lead or DeGoey. Melb have been leaking goals. Melb played one of their better games last week because they were hitting targets inside 50. They'll have move the ball quickly to avoid Darcy and Howe intercepting. 

If I'm reading this game correctly, this will be a free flowing game. I expect a total score of 185 (105-80) so I'm going big on the over 162.5. 

Collingwood haven't scored 100 in their last 2 games. The other "blockbuster" game was the ANZAC day game which was 69-73. I think Melb give up bigger scores than the Bombers. Melbourne has also been generally poor with goal kicking (but last week kicked more goals than points).

Stephenson 1.3... should have been 3.1 

Garlett passing from in front, 40 out

I'm adding some more on over 150. The game style is right but the skills have to improve. They can't get worse by Melbourne. 

Losing by 8 points when Melbourne kick 7.15 wasn't the plan. 4.10 in the second half.