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#1
St Kilda 1.10 (-39.5)
Adelaide 7.00
North Melbourne 1.13 (-40.5)
Brisbane 6.00
Sydney 1.56 (-11.5)
Western Bulldogs 2.45
Gold Coast 17.00
Collingwood 1.01 (-78.5)
Essendon 2.80
Carlton 1.44 (-15.5)
Geelong 1.08 (-46.5)
Richmond 8.00
Fremantle 2.60
West Coast (-14.5)
Leans:
St Kilda 1-39
Gold Coast +78.5
Essendon ML and +15.5
Fremantle ML
The one line that jumped out at me was the number of points St Kilda is giving Adelaide on Friday night. Since when did the Saints deserve to give anyone 40 points (even Adelaide)? They were written off a couple of weeks ago and almost squandered a 40-point lead last week before just sneaking home. They're a better side than they've played in 2011, but I think this is a spot where the Saints have been over-estimated.
St Kilda at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (4-2):
lost to Essendon by 52 (Team Total = 84)
lost to Carlton by 3 (Team Total = 81)
d. Melbourne by 22 (Team Total = 106)
d. Western Bulldogs by 24 (Team Total = 81)
d. North Melbourne by 9 (Team Total = 79)
d. West Coast by 21 (Team Total = 82)
Average winning margin = 19.00
Average score = 85.50
Also note the scoring range of 79-84 points over the course of FIVE GAMES (so incredibly narrow) with the only exception being the 106 posted against Melbourne who have terminal problems playing at Etihad Stadium.
Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (0-4):
lost to Carlton by 6 (Team Total = 76)
lost to Collingwood by 42 (Team Total = 92)
lost to North Melbourne by 47 (Team Total = 68)
lost to Western Bulldogs by 30 (Team Total = 70)
Average losing margin = 31.25
Average score = 76.50
Also note the caliber of teams that the Crows have played. No easy games here.
Comparison
St Kilda average score at Etihad: 85.50
Adelaide average score at Etihad: 76.50
St Kilda average winning margin: 19.00
Adelaide average losing margin: 31.25
So someone please tell me why the Crows have been given 39.5 points and why St Kilda by 1-39 points @ 2.45 should not be the obvious play?
If the Saints matched their highest score at Etihad (106) and the Crows matched their lowest (70), the margin would still only be 36 points.
Granted there are other factors at play including a) teams going in opposite directions b) personnel changes c) how the teams match up (St Kilda won by 29 IN Adelaide earlier this season) and d) the chase for percentage points, which is arguably a non-factor considering St Kilda has a draw.
Saints no doubt a better team, but are they a team you would lay 40 points with??
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