Interesting round we have ahead of us now with a few teams going head to head to try to secure their first points of the season.
Richmond v Carlton
So here we have two teams, both hoping to have taken their first round victories but both having fallen short with opportunities to both having taken each match.
Odds on are for Richmond to dominate here.
I am going to keep this one short. Recent matches of this game have been decided by 11 points or less, therefore the obvious value is to taken Carlton with the points.
I prefer Mick Malthouse's coaching style to Richmond's. Last years finals showed how Carlton plays when they need to win. I believe it's a similar case here.
I'll be playing Carlton on the line (+10.5) for 1.5u.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
(5-2 +3.5u)
Interesting round we have ahead of us now with a few teams going head to head to try to secure their first points of the season.
Richmond v Carlton
So here we have two teams, both hoping to have taken their first round victories but both having fallen short with opportunities to both having taken each match.
Odds on are for Richmond to dominate here.
I am going to keep this one short. Recent matches of this game have been decided by 11 points or less, therefore the obvious value is to taken Carlton with the points.
I prefer Mick Malthouse's coaching style to Richmond's. Last years finals showed how Carlton plays when they need to win. I believe it's a similar case here.
I'll be playing Carlton on the line (+10.5) for 1.5u.
Normally, in the last 30 seconds the leading team defends a lead but Richmond went for the jugular on an ugly Carlton clearance. In hindsight, I should have gotten on at Pinnacle who were offering +12.5 at over $2.00. The last 6 second goal killed it!
A great game of football though.
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(5-3 +2u)
Carlton +10.5 (98-86)
Normally, in the last 30 seconds the leading team defends a lead but Richmond went for the jugular on an ugly Carlton clearance. In hindsight, I should have gotten on at Pinnacle who were offering +12.5 at over $2.00. The last 6 second goal killed it!
Thanks ice! At least you got home! A last second goal was unbelievable and I didn't expect Carlton to blow out to +12.5. Goes to show that waiting sometimes provides immense value and I would have had the hook cover. And it seems that I am a bit late today as well!
Breaking news just in. Sam Mitchell is doubtful for tonight's game and I am hitting myself for not pulling the trigger on the Bombers +19.5 that we were getting this morning.
Bomber Thompson has completely changed the run and flow of how the bombers spread the ball. It definitely looks like a second Geelong team in the making.
I am getting on the Essendon ML for $2.75 for 2.5 units. I normally don't play the money line, but as it has been smashed down with the news just in, I am going to try and get some value while I can.
Enjoi
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Thanks ice! At least you got home! A last second goal was unbelievable and I didn't expect Carlton to blow out to +12.5. Goes to show that waiting sometimes provides immense value and I would have had the hook cover. And it seems that I am a bit late today as well!
Breaking news just in. Sam Mitchell is doubtful for tonight's game and I am hitting myself for not pulling the trigger on the Bombers +19.5 that we were getting this morning.
Bomber Thompson has completely changed the run and flow of how the bombers spread the ball. It definitely looks like a second Geelong team in the making.
I am getting on the Essendon ML for $2.75 for 2.5 units. I normally don't play the money line, but as it has been smashed down with the news just in, I am going to try and get some value while I can.
Sharp money prior to Mitchell going through his fitness test was on the Hawks.
Previous matchups are mostly in favour of Essendon.
R18, 2013, Hawthorn 22.11 (143) d Essendon 13.9 (87) at Etihad Stadium
R18, 2012, Hawthorn 27.18 (180) d Essendon 12.14 (86) at Etihad Stadium
R14, 2011, Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Essendon 12.9 (81) at the MCG
R13, 2010, Hawthorn 14.18 (102) d Essendon 13.8 (86) at the MCG
R6, 2010, Essendon 15.16 (106) d Hawthorn 9.9 (63) at the MCG
You have to go back all the way to 2010 to when Essendon last had a win. There are signs that point to an against the grain win for Essendon though, and if it's true, then this could be one of the last times this season we get ML value on them.
Or, it could be one of the few times we get such good value on the Hawks. Whilst this is my largest ML play in around 12 rounds going back to last year, I would only recommend a smaller play for others.
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Just so that everyone is well aware.
Sharp money prior to Mitchell going through his fitness test was on the Hawks.
Previous matchups are mostly in favour of Essendon.
R18, 2013, Hawthorn 22.11 (143) d Essendon 13.9 (87) at Etihad Stadium
R18, 2012, Hawthorn 27.18 (180) d Essendon 12.14 (86) at Etihad Stadium
R14, 2011, Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Essendon 12.9 (81) at the MCG
R13, 2010, Hawthorn 14.18 (102) d Essendon 13.8 (86) at the MCG
R6, 2010, Essendon 15.16 (106) d Hawthorn 9.9 (63) at the MCG
You have to go back all the way to 2010 to when Essendon last had a win. There are signs that point to an against the grain win for Essendon though, and if it's true, then this could be one of the last times this season we get ML value on them.
Or, it could be one of the few times we get such good value on the Hawks. Whilst this is my largest ML play in around 12 rounds going back to last year, I would only recommend a smaller play for others.
Thanks for the input guru and good luck on that ML. I have been looking at the total score at 199.5 and think it will soar way over here. Do you think it has any value?
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Thanks for the input guru and good luck on that ML. I have been looking at the total score at 199.5 and think it will soar way over here. Do you think it has any value?
If Essendon wouldnt have lured me in with the ML value, then the over would have been the play. Last time these two teams played it certainly soared over the posted total.
Good luck either way mate
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If Essendon wouldnt have lured me in with the ML value, then the over would have been the play. Last time these two teams played it certainly soared over the posted total.
Yeah I took the points and a live bet on them as well, but no official plays. Shooting in the right direction, but just pipped!
Also unfortunate about the over mate. When one team was scoring, the other couldn't. Massive difference with the offensive structure of both teams compared to last year.
Bombers cover the handicap easily, they were the better team in the second...up until when it counted! At least the value with them will continue!
Onwards and upwards....Hoping St Kilda drift back to a PK for tomorrow.
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Yeah I took the points and a live bet on them as well, but no official plays. Shooting in the right direction, but just pipped!
Also unfortunate about the over mate. When one team was scoring, the other couldn't. Massive difference with the offensive structure of both teams compared to last year.
Bombers cover the handicap easily, they were the better team in the second...up until when it counted! At least the value with them will continue!
Onwards and upwards....Hoping St Kilda drift back to a PK for tomorrow.
Nicely played by the pies. Nearly made them my ML bet of the week, but convinced Essendon were the team to do it! Their strong run in Sydney continues and now all the questions go to the ten million dollar man in Buddy!
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Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:
With on the dirty Pies
Nicely played by the pies. Nearly made them my ML bet of the week, but convinced Essendon were the team to do it! Their strong run in Sydney continues and now all the questions go to the ten million dollar man in Buddy!
Nicely played by the pies. Nearly made them my ML bet of the week, but convinced Essendon were the team to do it! Their strong run in Sydney continues and now all the questions go to the ten million dollar man in Buddy!
I think the media will keep jumping on the Buddy factor but the Swans midfield just have looked pretty lethargic the first 2 games. Still think they will be fine given it is so early in the season.
But already it looks like the Dockers and Hawks are the teams to beat
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Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:
Nicely played by the pies. Nearly made them my ML bet of the week, but convinced Essendon were the team to do it! Their strong run in Sydney continues and now all the questions go to the ten million dollar man in Buddy!
I think the media will keep jumping on the Buddy factor but the Swans midfield just have looked pretty lethargic the first 2 games. Still think they will be fine given it is so early in the season.
But already it looks like the Dockers and Hawks are the teams to beat
I think the media will keep jumping on the Buddy factor but the Swans midfield just have looked pretty lethargic the first 2 games. Still think they will be fine given it is so early in the season.
But already it looks like the Dockers and Hawks are the teams to beat
I agree mate. I think they will use him as a scapegoat though if things don't go right. He isn't being fed the ball as he is used to and it will take time for him to also get used to his team mates. They will still make the top 4-6.
Freo, for me, is the team to beat this year. Lyons is so hungry and it shows.
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Just one play for me today as the West Coast game has moved significantly during the week from -40.5 to -47.5 now.
Having read a lot of the media in relation to North's performance over Essendon, it seems to have light a play in the belly's of the players. Significant changes have apparently been made this week and to be honest, where the Western Bulldogs did so well in last season with contested possessions, seems to have vanished this season which should make it a lot easier for the kanga's to score, both off turnovers and out of stoppages.
I'll be playing on North Melbourne on the line at (-20.5) for 3 units.
This should hopefully be a percentage booster for the Kangaroos to launch their top 8 campaign for the year.
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Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:
I think the media will keep jumping on the Buddy factor but the Swans midfield just have looked pretty lethargic the first 2 games. Still think they will be fine given it is so early in the season.
But already it looks like the Dockers and Hawks are the teams to beat
I agree mate. I think they will use him as a scapegoat though if things don't go right. He isn't being fed the ball as he is used to and it will take time for him to also get used to his team mates. They will still make the top 4-6.
Freo, for me, is the team to beat this year. Lyons is so hungry and it shows.
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Just one play for me today as the West Coast game has moved significantly during the week from -40.5 to -47.5 now.
Having read a lot of the media in relation to North's performance over Essendon, it seems to have light a play in the belly's of the players. Significant changes have apparently been made this week and to be honest, where the Western Bulldogs did so well in last season with contested possessions, seems to have vanished this season which should make it a lot easier for the kanga's to score, both off turnovers and out of stoppages.
I'll be playing on North Melbourne on the line at (-20.5) for 3 units.
This should hopefully be a percentage booster for the Kangaroos to launch their top 8 campaign for the year.
With you on the Kangas but took em -9.5 for the first half. I really hope they bounce back here as on paper they are clearly the better team. Bombers were too much for them last week and North Melbourne's offense was almost non-existent; this game should be a tide-turner for them. Good luck guru
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With you on the Kangas but took em -9.5 for the first half. I really hope they bounce back here as on paper they are clearly the better team. Bombers were too much for them last week and North Melbourne's offense was almost non-existent; this game should be a tide-turner for them. Good luck guru
I'll be playing on North Melbourne on the line at (-20.5) for 3 units.
(10-5 +7u) Well it wasn't a percentage booster and we got lucky in the 4th.
Every week, I do my multi, came close this week (done early in the week when Carlton was +6.5, look at all the other healthy lines though!). Adelaide and the last 6 second goal Richmond kicked, killed it. Still 7 of 9! So close to a large multi payout :)
https://imageshack.com/a/img716/2365/v3qu.png
Small profit this week which only killed in the past minute of two games (Adelaide was a bad call). Next Friday nights game should be great!
Watch the huge lines that Melbourne will now offer as its back to their normal massive lines after today.
@Enjoi. Bad luck mate. Pathetic 3 and a half quarters of footy from North. Probably shouldnt have won it.
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Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:
I'll be playing on North Melbourne on the line at (-20.5) for 3 units.
(10-5 +7u) Well it wasn't a percentage booster and we got lucky in the 4th.
Every week, I do my multi, came close this week (done early in the week when Carlton was +6.5, look at all the other healthy lines though!). Adelaide and the last 6 second goal Richmond kicked, killed it. Still 7 of 9! So close to a large multi payout :)
https://imageshack.com/a/img716/2365/v3qu.png
Small profit this week which only killed in the past minute of two games (Adelaide was a bad call). Next Friday nights game should be great!
Watch the huge lines that Melbourne will now offer as its back to their normal massive lines after today.
@Enjoi. Bad luck mate. Pathetic 3 and a half quarters of footy from North. Probably shouldnt have won it.
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