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#1
The early bird gets the worm.
Fell into old habits over the weekend, been playing a lot of OVERS lately because it makes a game enjoyable as you are hoping for both teams to score. No more of that. I promise. We're here to make money.
Heavily looking at one BOMB play and 2 leans for round 5 before the line's go walkabouts on me. I'm not locking these in just yet though!
Let's start off with a potential BOMB play which we are 5-0 on over the past 2 seasons. Judging by the record, i'd love to just wait for and pick these spots and I'd be a wealthy man, but I'm an action junkie.
Fremantle Dockers -36.5 vs Carlton Blues
I know Erich will hate me for this one as he hates the Dockers and their offensive capabilities.
Sunday afternoon, late game, another hostile home crowd, a team that has been challenging for the flag the last few seasons sitting at 0-4, coach under fire. Now is their chance to kick-start their season in a big way. With their losses, they don't have the time to be mucking about, when they face poor sides they need to put them away, here's their opportunity.
Carlton are hopeless and another team that struggles on the road. Once their heads are down it's one way traffic. I'm not sure what the situation is with captain Marc Murphy but he got badly split open on the head over the weekend and missed the last half or so (concussion?). He could even miss this week.
If you thought Freo can't score, look at the Blues. Casboult is their only target and is one of the worst kicks in the league.
Thought this line would open at -46.5 but with Freo's recent poor form and missing Mundy I think -36.5 is fair.
My capping has a Freo victory by 55+ points.
Other leans are North Melbourne -8.5 over the Suns and Collingwood -18.5 against the Bombers on Anzac Day.
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