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    AFL Round 7

    tozer
    Miracle1976
    showmethemoney1
    ecoute
    rod_steel
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    Views: 275
    Posts: 16
     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 1, 2008 - 11:00 PM ET #1

    YTD:   14W/9L/1Push     (+34.55 units)
    Round 1 - No plays
    Round 2 - 3/1  
    Round 3 - 2/3
    Round 4 - 3/1
    Round 5 - 3/2
    Round 6 - 3/2/1 
     
    Essendon/Port
    The dons injury list continues and Knights' willingness to start looking further ahead by starting 3 rookies (giving them something ridiculous like 7 players under 3 games) is all I need to make this my strongest play of the round. Port have been IMO playing good footy,  they have played a lot of the top draw and are sitting 2 wins from 4.
     
    It looks like it could be cold and wet so the line is decent but should also give Port's much more experienced bigger bodies a huge advantage. The wet will also limit the dons speed. All pointing to a good sized Port victory.
    Port -23.5 (7units)
     
    Melbourne/Freo
    Firstly, I might not play this depending on how wet it is. Freo in the wet in Melb trying to cover 4 goals could spell disaster even if it is against the pitiful Dees. But if its not bucketing down, I have to go with the Dockers. I've bet against the Dees nearly every week and won every time.
    Freo -23.5 (5 units)
     
    more to come...
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    YTD:   14W/9L/1Push     (+34.55 units)
    Round 1 - No plays
    Round 2 - 3/1  
    Round 3 - 2/3
    Round 4 - 3/1
    Round 5 - 3/2
    Round 6 - 3/2/1 
     
    Essendon/Port
    The dons injury list continues and Knights' willingness to start looking further ahead by starting 3 rookies (giving them something ridiculous like 7 players under 3 games) is all I need to make this my strongest play of the round. Port have been IMO playing good footy,  they have played a lot of the top draw and are sitting 2 wins from 4.
     
    It looks like it could be cold and wet so the line is decent but should also give Port's much more experienced bigger bodies a huge advantage. The wet will also limit the dons speed. All pointing to a good sized Port victory.
    Port -23.5 (7units)
     
    Melbourne/Freo
    Firstly, I might not play this depending on how wet it is. Freo in the wet in Melb trying to cover 4 goals could spell disaster even if it is against the pitiful Dees. But if its not bucketing down, I have to go with the Dockers. I've bet against the Dees nearly every week and won every time.
    Freo -23.5 (5 units)
     
    more to come...
     
    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 1, 2008 - 11:20 PM ET #2

    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    YTD:   14W/9L/1Push     (+34.55 units)
    Round 1 - No plays
    Round 2 - 3/1  
    Round 3 - 2/3
    Round 4 - 3/1
    Round 5 - 3/2
    Round 6 - 3/2/1 
     
    Essendon/Port
    It looks like it could be cold and wet so the line is decent but should also give Port's much more experienced bigger bodies a huge advantage. The wet will also limit the dons speed. All pointing to a good sized Port victory.
    Port -23.5 (7units)
     
    more to come...

    Very funny tozer...I wonder if they will leave the roof open at the Dome for this game if it is raining 

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    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    YTD:   14W/9L/1Push     (+34.55 units)
    Round 1 - No plays
    Round 2 - 3/1  
    Round 3 - 2/3
    Round 4 - 3/1
    Round 5 - 3/2
    Round 6 - 3/2/1 
     
    Essendon/Port
    It looks like it could be cold and wet so the line is decent but should also give Port's much more experienced bigger bodies a huge advantage. The wet will also limit the dons speed. All pointing to a good sized Port victory.
    Port -23.5 (7units)
     
    more to come...

    Very funny tozer...I wonder if they will leave the roof open at the Dome for this game if it is raining 

     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 1, 2008 - 11:36 PM ET #3

    Haha thanks for letting me know wasn't really thinking

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    Haha thanks for letting me know wasn't really thinking

     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 1, 2008 - 11:46 PM ET #4

    No worries, thats why I jumped on the line early yesterday afternoon @ 19.5.  Still think the 23.5 points is good...every man and his dog will be on this line.  If my Adel pick gets up I will increase my Port play a 'little' more.
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    No worries, thats why I jumped on the line early yesterday afternoon @ 19.5.  Still think the 23.5 points is good...every man and his dog will be on this line.  If my Adel pick gets up I will increase my Port play a 'little' more.
     
    showmethemoney1
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 1:44 AM ET #5

     good luck tozer
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     good luck tozer
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 5:36 AM ET #6

    WC/Carlton
    Making a small play on this and siding with the home team, behind possibly the most parochial crowd in australia.
    WC +8.5 (1 unit)
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    WC/Carlton
    Making a small play on this and siding with the home team, behind possibly the most parochial crowd in australia.
    WC +8.5 (1 unit)
     
    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 6:02 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    WC/Carlton
    Making a small play on this and siding with the home team, behind possibly the most parochial crowd in australia.
    WC +8.5 (1 unit)

    Like it tozer, Carl are 0-3 at night, and playing interstate.  Just a couple of reasons to like WC here + a little pride...

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    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    WC/Carlton
    Making a small play on this and siding with the home team, behind possibly the most parochial crowd in australia.
    WC +8.5 (1 unit)

    Like it tozer, Carl are 0-3 at night, and playing interstate.  Just a couple of reasons to like WC here + a little pride...

     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 8:59 PM ET #8

    West Coast don't have skills problems they have psychological problems. Very pointed statement. 15 premiership players, another 3 with at least 2 seasons under their belts. Four new players..................... that said West Coast trying to set a round for behinds kicked in a year.
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    West Coast don't have skills problems they have psychological problems. Very pointed statement. 15 premiership players, another 3 with at least 2 seasons under their belts. Four new players..................... that said West Coast trying to set a round for behinds kicked in a year.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 9:35 PM ET #9

    Hawks/Pies
    With Burns back it should be pretty even in the midfield. Where I see the biggest mismatch is the Hawks forward line. Who have the Pies got to limit Franklin? Wakelin or Brown, IMO won't match in speed, O'Brien doesn't have the skill and nobody else has the height. The Hawks have had a couple of close matches and I think with some accurate kicking they can win by a at least 4 goals.
    Hawks -12.5 (5 units)
     
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    Hawks/Pies
    With Burns back it should be pretty even in the midfield. Where I see the biggest mismatch is the Hawks forward line. Who have the Pies got to limit Franklin? Wakelin or Brown, IMO won't match in speed, O'Brien doesn't have the skill and nobody else has the height. The Hawks have had a couple of close matches and I think with some accurate kicking they can win by a at least 4 goals.
    Hawks -12.5 (5 units)
     
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 11:25 PM ET #10

    Cats/Lions
    Decided to go with the cats, hoping last week woke them up. Brown and Black are late ommissions which is huge losses for the lions.
    Cats -31.5 (5 units)
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    Cats/Lions
    Decided to go with the cats, hoping last week woke them up. Brown and Black are late ommissions which is huge losses for the lions.
    Cats -31.5 (5 units)
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 11:29 PM ET #11

    Ablett is also out which evens up Black being out but I'll take my chances backing the cats.
     
    Also it looks like Scott West could be out for the bulldogs clash
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    Ablett is also out which evens up Black being out but I'll take my chances backing the cats.
     
    Also it looks like Scott West could be out for the bulldogs clash
     
    showmethemoney1
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    Posted: May. 2, 2008 - 11:50 PM ET #12

    good luck tozer no black brown lappin johnstone for lions cats should roll
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    good luck tozer no black brown lappin johnstone for lions cats should roll
     
    rod_steel
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    Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 2:18 AM ET #13

    Your Lions could create an upset here tozer, been watching it and they have been playing out of the skins
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    Your Lions could create an upset here tozer, been watching it and they have been playing out of the skins
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 2:47 AM ET #14

    They looked good didn't they Rod. I shouldn't have bet that game, spread was too big oh well. Got a couple of big plays I like tomorrow and a couple of S14 today.
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    They looked good didn't they Rod. I shouldn't have bet that game, spread was too big oh well. Got a couple of big plays I like tomorrow and a couple of S14 today.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 3:06 AM ET #15

    Crows/North
    There are so many people that think the crows will cover tonight, some I spoke to during the week (and I respect their tips a lot) but I have to go against it all and select the kangas. Maybe I should leave this game alone? If anybody could tell me why everybody thinks the crows will cover -15.5, tell me? I just don't see it.
    Not placed yet, I need convincing but if I place the bet it'll be
    Kangas +15.5 (5 units)
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    Crows/North
    There are so many people that think the crows will cover tonight, some I spoke to during the week (and I respect their tips a lot) but I have to go against it all and select the kangas. Maybe I should leave this game alone? If anybody could tell me why everybody thinks the crows will cover -15.5, tell me? I just don't see it.
    Not placed yet, I need convincing but if I place the bet it'll be
    Kangas +15.5 (5 units)
     
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 5:40 AM ET #16

    Ended up taking the Kangas +17 (5 units)
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    Ended up taking the Kangas +17 (5 units)
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