I was initially keen on this one but then I though about it more and I can't see much value in the game. The Bombers rested Zacha and Howlett for this game. I can't say that Mitchell and Buddy were rested but they are coming back in. I like that Fletcher is out but not enough to play the Hawks. I would have Carlisle on Roughie and then everything else is logical. The teams match up well and it should be a ripper game. I see the total a little low but closer. I would have this game at 215
I did find a small one... Cyril Rioli over 81.5 (dream team points)
He should do that easily. His last 3 have been below that... and he was sub for one of them. The other two were at shitty grounds. There is no reason why he shouldn't come close to 100.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hawks and Bombers
I was initially keen on this one but then I though about it more and I can't see much value in the game. The Bombers rested Zacha and Howlett for this game. I can't say that Mitchell and Buddy were rested but they are coming back in. I like that Fletcher is out but not enough to play the Hawks. I would have Carlisle on Roughie and then everything else is logical. The teams match up well and it should be a ripper game. I see the total a little low but closer. I would have this game at 215
I did find a small one... Cyril Rioli over 81.5 (dream team points)
He should do that easily. His last 3 have been below that... and he was sub for one of them. The other two were at shitty grounds. There is no reason why he shouldn't come close to 100.
Gone the 2H Under 101.5 for the Bombers Hawks. That second quarter showed some pressure and the first quarter they couldn't miss. The Bombers can't let the Hawks score if they want any chance of winning. The game and the scoring will slow down.
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Gone the 2H Under 101.5 for the Bombers Hawks. That second quarter showed some pressure and the first quarter they couldn't miss. The Bombers can't let the Hawks score if they want any chance of winning. The game and the scoring will slow down.
I think both are screwed. That defensive pressure is gone. The Bombers are rolling the dice with an open game. I expected a loose man back but nope... high scores with nothing unexpected. Hawks will win big. I really shouldn't have given the Bombers any respect.
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I think both are screwed. That defensive pressure is gone. The Bombers are rolling the dice with an open game. I expected a loose man back but nope... high scores with nothing unexpected. Hawks will win big. I really shouldn't have given the Bombers any respect.
I've been on a good run lately. It is a bit of a shock to see Rioli only get 73 in a team that scores.
This week is not a great week for picks. Some will come out but they are hidden well.
Here are my thoughts... I don't trust Carlton at GC. GC are the better value but I like the better at night at home when the ball is slippery. Roos should win by 100+. Might jump on but again, that's a big line so I'll think it over. Pies.. 86 points... why? The lost to GC. They aren't in good form and would be happy with 60. Will think of a HT bet on this one. Geelong should crush the Saints... comes down to weather. The line is only 42 so I'm expecting it to be in a swimming pool for the Cats not to cover. Freo and Adelaide... well, the weather in Perth should be average tomorrow... very wet ground and maybe rain during the game. I see it being a close one and would go for Adelaide in a low scoring game. They play well in WA and have confidence after last week. If they can get 10 goals, they cover well. Freo without Pav, Ballentyne and McFarline only have Walters as a genuine forward. Their mids will need to score the bulk of their goals so the Cows match up with them pretty well.
Port to beat Lions... but the Lions have won games lately. I expect Port to be too good. Lions will miss Hanley. The risk is the weather. Too many outs for WCE but it's the Bulldogs. Can't trust either team to win. The value is in the doggies line... that's already dropped 4 or 5 points. Swans should cover Richmond
Strongest leans are Adelaide and Swans.
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I've been on a good run lately. It is a bit of a shock to see Rioli only get 73 in a team that scores.
This week is not a great week for picks. Some will come out but they are hidden well.
Here are my thoughts... I don't trust Carlton at GC. GC are the better value but I like the better at night at home when the ball is slippery. Roos should win by 100+. Might jump on but again, that's a big line so I'll think it over. Pies.. 86 points... why? The lost to GC. They aren't in good form and would be happy with 60. Will think of a HT bet on this one. Geelong should crush the Saints... comes down to weather. The line is only 42 so I'm expecting it to be in a swimming pool for the Cats not to cover. Freo and Adelaide... well, the weather in Perth should be average tomorrow... very wet ground and maybe rain during the game. I see it being a close one and would go for Adelaide in a low scoring game. They play well in WA and have confidence after last week. If they can get 10 goals, they cover well. Freo without Pav, Ballentyne and McFarline only have Walters as a genuine forward. Their mids will need to score the bulk of their goals so the Cows match up with them pretty well.
Port to beat Lions... but the Lions have won games lately. I expect Port to be too good. Lions will miss Hanley. The risk is the weather. Too many outs for WCE but it's the Bulldogs. Can't trust either team to win. The value is in the doggies line... that's already dropped 4 or 5 points. Swans should cover Richmond
Hendy... Nice to see a couple threads going on for AFL. I live in Canada but I like to try and follow as much as I can. Haven't followed enough to bet though but I'm gonna start reading your threads more often. I know you said you leaned Adelaide to cover but what are your thoughts on a two team moneyline parlay with Swans & Freo? Or if you don't like Freo, which other team you think would be good to parlay with the Swans?
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Hendy... Nice to see a couple threads going on for AFL. I live in Canada but I like to try and follow as much as I can. Haven't followed enough to bet though but I'm gonna start reading your threads more often. I know you said you leaned Adelaide to cover but what are your thoughts on a two team moneyline parlay with Swans & Freo? Or if you don't like Freo, which other team you think would be good to parlay with the Swans?
Cheers Zeph. I'm not the best capper in the world and I am streaky. I will however add any info or opinions requested.
I think the Freo game will be heavily influenced by the weather. It's been wet and rainy in Perth... and that isn't normal for Perth. Freo aren't a great wet weather team. They are missing their most important defender and two key forwards. I think if they win (which they should), they win not win by much.
I would MUCH prefer to put my money on Port instead if you wanted an ML of the same price. The conditions are really tricky in Adelaide and the home team has a strong advantage when it is windy.
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Cheers Zeph. I'm not the best capper in the world and I am streaky. I will however add any info or opinions requested.
I think the Freo game will be heavily influenced by the weather. It's been wet and rainy in Perth... and that isn't normal for Perth. Freo aren't a great wet weather team. They are missing their most important defender and two key forwards. I think if they win (which they should), they win not win by much.
I would MUCH prefer to put my money on Port instead if you wanted an ML of the same price. The conditions are really tricky in Adelaide and the home team has a strong advantage when it is windy.
Changes for the GC Blues game Dion Prestia & Rory Thompson out. Replaced by Jacob Gillbee and Tim Sumner.
Takes all advantage away from the GC. Prestia playing well and Thompson was in great form. Doesn't really matter as May or Thompson would have to play on a small forward. Carlton should cover the 17.5 but I don't trust 'em.
Melbourne change Melbourne: Dean Terlich replaced in selected side by Luke Tapscott
Roos SHOULD cover... but it's a high number and Melbourne sometimes don't want to win, just not lose by a big score. (like the Swans game).
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Changes for the GC Blues game Dion Prestia & Rory Thompson out. Replaced by Jacob Gillbee and Tim Sumner.
Takes all advantage away from the GC. Prestia playing well and Thompson was in great form. Doesn't really matter as May or Thompson would have to play on a small forward. Carlton should cover the 17.5 but I don't trust 'em.
Melbourne change Melbourne: Dean Terlich replaced in selected side by Luke Tapscott
Roos SHOULD cover... but it's a high number and Melbourne sometimes don't want to win, just not lose by a big score. (like the Swans game).
I'm going to wait until the teams are announced for the afternoon game. 88 POINTS? I know it's at the MCG. I know the Pies lost and should rebound but they haven't been in great form for a month. I think the Pies should win... but why so many points?
Almost 4 goals per quarter different? Mohr will do OK on Cloke. Grundy will get some experience.
Sheeds will clog it up if the Pies look like they have too much momentum. I might be mixing up shitty teams as I expected GC to game last week to open up but had 2 men behind the play in the 3rd Q. I'm going back to the Roos GWS game where they were blown out by 10 goals in the first half and lost the second half by less than 5. (80 something point margin... but that was against a hot Roos team at the dome)
Also, I like both of the night games. Cats and Crows to cover but again, will wait for the teams.
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I'm going to wait until the teams are announced for the afternoon game. 88 POINTS? I know it's at the MCG. I know the Pies lost and should rebound but they haven't been in great form for a month. I think the Pies should win... but why so many points?
Almost 4 goals per quarter different? Mohr will do OK on Cloke. Grundy will get some experience.
Sheeds will clog it up if the Pies look like they have too much momentum. I might be mixing up shitty teams as I expected GC to game last week to open up but had 2 men behind the play in the 3rd Q. I'm going back to the Roos GWS game where they were blown out by 10 goals in the first half and lost the second half by less than 5. (80 something point margin... but that was against a hot Roos team at the dome)
Also, I like both of the night games. Cats and Crows to cover but again, will wait for the teams.
Will play Port small but will wait until the game because of the weather. Brissy will struggle in the foreign conditions and the Port pressure. Hanley was key to them breaking the lines.
I had a look and I see value in the doggies with all the WCE outs. There is too much variation for me to pick.
I will lock inSwans -22.5
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Will play Port small but will wait until the game because of the weather. Brissy will struggle in the foreign conditions and the Port pressure. Hanley was key to them breaking the lines.
I had a look and I see value in the doggies with all the WCE outs. There is too much variation for me to pick.
The more I look at it, the more confident the play. Brissy played Melbourne last week at TIO. They were actually losing to them in the second quarter and interstate travel two weeks in a row is taxing.
The back line for Port matches well on the big slow logs. The midfield pressure should mean Port control the game. The home ground advantage should mean they control the game. Jonas missing will throw their chemistry a bit but Brissy shouldn't be ready to capitalize.
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No rain in Adelaide.
Port -18.5
The more I look at it, the more confident the play. Brissy played Melbourne last week at TIO. They were actually losing to them in the second quarter and interstate travel two weeks in a row is taxing.
The back line for Port matches well on the big slow logs. The midfield pressure should mean Port control the game. The home ground advantage should mean they control the game. Jonas missing will throw their chemistry a bit but Brissy shouldn't be ready to capitalize.
Nice to get back ahead. When the two Adelaide injuries happened I thought it would go the same way as my 2H bet where the Giants were knocking themselves out so I could lose. The 50m and goal got me but the quick response saved the bet. If the Cows kicked better, it would have been closer to what I expected.
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should have clicked submit last night...
Cats -42.5 Crows +24.5
Nice to get back ahead. When the two Adelaide injuries happened I thought it would go the same way as my 2H bet where the Giants were knocking themselves out so I could lose. The 50m and goal got me but the quick response saved the bet. If the Cows kicked better, it would have been closer to what I expected.
Listening to the radio pre game... Lions only won 2 of 7 away. Those games were the Bombers early in the season and Melbourne last week. Thats a damning stat.
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Listening to the radio pre game... Lions only won 2 of 7 away. Those games were the Bombers early in the season and Melbourne last week. Thats a damning stat.
Port should be in front by a good amount. Currently 3.7 to 4.5 and it should be about 3 more goals to Port and a couple less to Brissy. The pressure from Port isn't there at the moment and they are missing easy shots.
It is all about the lack of finish. Butcher missing from 30 in front. Shultz missing EVERYTHING from 50 at home... not normal.
I think the result of this bet is going to be determined in the 3Q. Port will need to adjust to the extra in defense and run more... and finish in front of goal.
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Port should be in front by a good amount. Currently 3.7 to 4.5 and it should be about 3 more goals to Port and a couple less to Brissy. The pressure from Port isn't there at the moment and they are missing easy shots.
It is all about the lack of finish. Butcher missing from 30 in front. Shultz missing EVERYTHING from 50 at home... not normal.
I think the result of this bet is going to be determined in the 3Q. Port will need to adjust to the extra in defense and run more... and finish in front of goal.
7.15 to 9.5 You really don't expect the home team to struggle so much with the conditions. 22 scoring shots to 14... and losing. Not what I expected and the Lions have the breeze in the last quarter. Hopefully the Lions run out of legs.
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7.15 to 9.5 You really don't expect the home team to struggle so much with the conditions. 22 scoring shots to 14... and losing. Not what I expected and the Lions have the breeze in the last quarter. Hopefully the Lions run out of legs.
Nine more points... turn that into 2.7 and they cover.
Loading up on Sydney -22.5
Richmond only won against Freo because Freo couldn't finish at the MCG. They are away from home and Sydney are in great form. The SCG doesn't suit the Tigers because they don't have as much room to stuff around. I see a 40 point win... and Sydney controlling the game.
I'm putting all my profits so far onto this so hopefully it follows the script.
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Port -18.5
Nine more points... turn that into 2.7 and they cover.
Loading up on Sydney -22.5
Richmond only won against Freo because Freo couldn't finish at the MCG. They are away from home and Sydney are in great form. The SCG doesn't suit the Tigers because they don't have as much room to stuff around. I see a 40 point win... and Sydney controlling the game.
I'm putting all my profits so far onto this so hopefully it follows the script.
So far 3-4 this weekend with the Swans still pending.
It seems like this weekend I'm picking the better team but their goal kicking is off. The Swans kicked 3 out of bounds on the full when going for goal... and missed a couple... but the difference is that the Swans have kicked a couple of really nice ones.
Swans look clearly the better side. Hopefully they will show it on the scoreboard. Lots more structure and lots more run.
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So far 3-4 this weekend with the Swans still pending.
It seems like this weekend I'm picking the better team but their goal kicking is off. The Swans kicked 3 out of bounds on the full when going for goal... and missed a couple... but the difference is that the Swans have kicked a couple of really nice ones.
Swans look clearly the better side. Hopefully they will show it on the scoreboard. Lots more structure and lots more run.
Tozer
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