LAX Quarters

There are a couple of books offering action on the NCAA LAX quarter-finals, and I think there are some decent values out there.

 

First, Duke, which is far and away the best team in the country, having won twice AT Virginia (who is probably, on most days, the second best team in the country) including once by 10, is laying 3.5 to Ohio State at even money (game at Ithaca, NY).  Duke has won 17 games this year, and only once did they fail to win by 4 goals - the second UVA game, and UVa had to score the last five just to get close.  18-9 Dook, assuming a fast track weather-wise.

 

Hopkins is -160 vs a Navy team they recently killed in Annapolis, which is where this game is as well.  I expect JHU to win, but that's probably too much juice to pay for a Blue Jay team that's a little hit or miss.  8-6 Hopkins.

 

Virginia is -140 against Maryland (+100) in Annapolis.  They split their first two, each winning at home.  UVa is better, but soft.  MD young and hungry.  12-11 somebody. 

 

Syracuse -1.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame - both teams struggled with a surging Colgate team in recent weeks, with SU losing in Hamilton and ND surviving in OT last week.  Syracuse is playing close to home, and on the artificial surface they know and love.  15-11 Orange.

I have to laugh.  Maybe the guys at 5Dimes read my post  because the lines have adjsuted big time. 

 

Duke went from -3.5 at even money to -125.  I still like it, as they should roll OSU.

 

Virginia is now -1.5  -140 - crazy juice if you ask me; I'll take Maryland and the free goal and a half and the +120 to boot.

 

Hopkins is now -2 -120 - better juice on the team that ought to win, but since I picked them to win by two (an there might be 12 goals in the whole game), and it's at Navy, and Navy owes them one, I think this is a no-play.

 

Syracuse is now -2.5 -120 - interesting, as I don't really think SU is that much better than ND on a neutral field; however, the game is being played quite close to Syracuse, and on artificial turf.  Might be worth a flyer on the Irish +2.5 at plus 120, as I could easilly see this at 13-12 either way. 

 

SU - now

Please ignore that last "SU - now," which is just a stray typo.

Supposed to rain in Ithaca Saturday.  Rain on grass generally slows things down.  Rain on turf shouldn't make much of a difference unless it's heavy, which it isn't supposed to be.

Pretty much got them all. 

 

Duke was a laugher, as predicted.  21-10, and it wasn't that close.

 

Hopkins won easilly (10-4), beating Navy for the 35th straight time.  The eventual juice on the game (-120) was a lot better than the opener (-160).

 

Virginia won by a goal, as I predicted (well, I predicted that SOMEBODY would win by a goal),  so the Terps cashed at + money.

 

I liked Syracuse at -1.5 on the open and leaned ND at +2.5 later.  Well, it wound up 11-9 Orange, so both were right.

 

On to the semis.  Duke will spank Hopkins again.  14-7.  UVa and Syracuse should play a squeaker, but SU's face-off prowess might be enough to overcome the Hoos' edge in overall talent.  Another 12-11 somebody game.  Lines later.

Duke -3.5 -120 - should be  - need to check  the weather; they're worlds better than Hopkins.

 

Virginia +2.5 -135 - interesting; Virginia is better than Syracuse, but isn't as tough; it's also on grass which should favor the Hoos; if Uva comes out and plays like it did in the second half against Maryland, they could win going away; face-off disparity is a real concern here, though; SU could have the ball for most of the afternoon;

 

 gotta play UVa at -135, and also at +175 to win outright.

Thanks.  I'll have to go back and check the line movements.  I'd be amazed if Duke doesn't get more expensive, and the UVa line drops. 

UVa now +2.5 -175.  No value there.  They are still +175 to win outright, which is the better bet.  Duke line hasn't moved.  Supposed to be sunny and 70 on Saturday in Foxboro, so Duke should be able to run away and hide.