You would think Gold Coast could only improve on the last matchup where they lost by 20 points, although homicide was relatively quiet that game in between some big performances.
GC need Jason Crowe to get it together - stop turning the ball over so much and hit some shots.
Wouldn't suprise me if the Blaze get it together and spring an upset because they have alot of offensive talent and play reasonable defence. However, on form it looks an easy Townsville win to me.
Playoffs have a tendancy to be lower scoring, not always but generally. Chances of it being tight and tense rather than free scoring are significantly higher for mine.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 134-95 +35.3u
Townsville -6 1u
Townsville v Gold Coast under 190.5 1.5u
You would think Gold Coast could only improve on the last matchup where they lost by 20 points, although homicide was relatively quiet that game in between some big performances.
GC need Jason Crowe to get it together - stop turning the ball over so much and hit some shots.
Wouldn't suprise me if the Blaze get it together and spring an upset because they have alot of offensive talent and play reasonable defence. However, on form it looks an easy Townsville win to me.
Playoffs have a tendancy to be lower scoring, not always but generally. Chances of it being tight and tense rather than free scoring are significantly higher for mine.
Not very confident with these but I have decided to play them.
One question I have been considering is how strong a team is Cairns? (Supposedly Darrnell Mee will play but Vale turned his ankle badly at training and is out). Cairns finished the season with two 20 point wins over Wollongong and Townsville. In the Townsville game homicide was the only player to show up finishing with 37, Egan was next highest score with 10. as a team: 31 fouls 23 turnovers, 3p% 25%, FT% 50%.
In there prior two home games Cairns lost to Adelaide and just beat Gold Coast. However, the prior two before these were victories over Brisbane and Perth.
NZ on the other hand have looked impressive at home but have failed to even keep it close with the top teams on the road in the latter rounds: losing to Perth by 12, Sydney by 10, Melbourne by 14 and Townsville by 20.
My calcs suggest the line should be more like 4 and I am betting that NZ can at least keep it close. However, the massive finals experience edge to Cairns is a worry.
With Mee and Cattalini Cairns are alot more potent offensively and will be more happy to play uptempo i think. As long as some of the NZ shooters are hitting some shots I think this can go over 200.
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YTD: 136-95 +37.6u
NZ +8.5 1u
Cairns v NZ over 194.5 1u
Not very confident with these but I have decided to play them.
One question I have been considering is how strong a team is Cairns? (Supposedly Darrnell Mee will play but Vale turned his ankle badly at training and is out). Cairns finished the season with two 20 point wins over Wollongong and Townsville. In the Townsville game homicide was the only player to show up finishing with 37, Egan was next highest score with 10. as a team: 31 fouls 23 turnovers, 3p% 25%, FT% 50%.
In there prior two home games Cairns lost to Adelaide and just beat Gold Coast. However, the prior two before these were victories over Brisbane and Perth.
NZ on the other hand have looked impressive at home but have failed to even keep it close with the top teams on the road in the latter rounds: losing to Perth by 12, Sydney by 10, Melbourne by 14 and Townsville by 20.
My calcs suggest the line should be more like 4 and I am betting that NZ can at least keep it close. However, the massive finals experience edge to Cairns is a worry.
With Mee and Cattalini Cairns are alot more potent offensively and will be more happy to play uptempo i think. As long as some of the NZ shooters are hitting some shots I think this can go over 200.
Unfortunately, I am going against you (and Rod) on the OVER. I have noticed the Breakers have not played and have not been allowed to play the uptempo game against good defensive teams. Not sure if Cairns fall into this category but given the sudden death atmosphere, it will be tense and tight. UNDER 195.5 for me.
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Unfortunately, I am going against you (and Rod) on the OVER. I have noticed the Breakers have not played and have not been allowed to play the uptempo game against good defensive teams. Not sure if Cairns fall into this category but given the sudden death atmosphere, it will be tense and tight. UNDER 195.5 for me.
i am far from confident in the over, but a few factors I would clutch at are:
- Darnell Mee runs the offence alot better than Black, plus it allows Black to concentrate on scoring. as i recall darnell mee returned from injury agains NZ on 22/10 when cairns had been scoring less than 90 more often than not and they racked up 128
- NZ playing defence pretty much means slapping at the ball if it is reach, frequently they rack up around 30 fouls which usually means 30 or more free throws for opposition
- i dont think NZ will lose gracefully, if they are down by less than 20 there is a reasonable chance they will keep fouling to the final siren
- both Boodnikof and Foreman who have had relatively poor seasons hit several 3s in recent games
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i am far from confident in the over, but a few factors I would clutch at are:
- Darnell Mee runs the offence alot better than Black, plus it allows Black to concentrate on scoring. as i recall darnell mee returned from injury agains NZ on 22/10 when cairns had been scoring less than 90 more often than not and they racked up 128
- NZ playing defence pretty much means slapping at the ball if it is reach, frequently they rack up around 30 fouls which usually means 30 or more free throws for opposition
- i dont think NZ will lose gracefully, if they are down by less than 20 there is a reasonable chance they will keep fouling to the final siren
- both Boodnikof and Foreman who have had relatively poor seasons hit several 3s in recent games
While the above are sidepoints, i think rod's point about NZ playing uptempo is a key point. Both these teams have averaged close to 100 possessions a game in their last five games (by the measure i use). Only West Sydney and Melbourne averaged more.
If they have both been playing uptempo it seems likely thay will against each other.
If there are 100 possessions i think the chances of it going over are more than 65%.
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While the above are sidepoints, i think rod's point about NZ playing uptempo is a key point. Both these teams have averaged close to 100 possessions a game in their last five games (by the measure i use). Only West Sydney and Melbourne averaged more.
If they have both been playing uptempo it seems likely thay will against each other.
If there are 100 possessions i think the chances of it going over are more than 65%.
Been thinking about this game a bit and can't really come up with much so I thought I would basically go contrarian, with the money flooding in for Perth.
Homicide went 2/17 and 2/11 from the field in their two games against Perth. From what I read Perth played great team defense and Homicide kept trying to get to the rim with v little success.
In the game in Perth they lost by 5 with their three shooters stinking Rillie 5/14, Robertson 1/7 and Williamson 1/6.
In the game in Townsville Rillie hit a few shots and they won. Laughton missed that game.
My take is that Townsville have had a win and a close loss with key players playing poorly.
The obvious factor is, assuming they took commercial flights, it probably took they about 12 hours door to door if they were lucky. Perth have been resting for a week. This is obviously not a plus for townsville but they have still had a day to rest.
Betting Townsville will pull themselves up, play uptempo and keep it close. Could be asking for too much.
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YTD: 137-96 +37.5u
Townsville +9.5 $1.98 1u
Perth v Townsville over 182.5 1u
Been thinking about this game a bit and can't really come up with much so I thought I would basically go contrarian, with the money flooding in for Perth.
Homicide went 2/17 and 2/11 from the field in their two games against Perth. From what I read Perth played great team defense and Homicide kept trying to get to the rim with v little success.
In the game in Perth they lost by 5 with their three shooters stinking Rillie 5/14, Robertson 1/7 and Williamson 1/6.
In the game in Townsville Rillie hit a few shots and they won. Laughton missed that game.
My take is that Townsville have had a win and a close loss with key players playing poorly.
The obvious factor is, assuming they took commercial flights, it probably took they about 12 hours door to door if they were lucky. Perth have been resting for a week. This is obviously not a plus for townsville but they have still had a day to rest.
Betting Townsville will pull themselves up, play uptempo and keep it close. Could be asking for too much.
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