I think NZ will struggle to score as freely as usual with their imports out, as the players who will get most of the extra minutes Henare and Vukona are far less potent offensively. Cairns have been struggling to score all season, so under looks value to me.
Even with Tucker and Cattalini out the Cairns line up has more potential for mine with Black, Mee, Jawai and Abney. They were terrible last start versus NZ but have shown signs they could realise their potential such as when they beat Brisbane by 22.
Cairns only decent performance on the road this season has been their win in NZ in round one which could give them some confidence going into this one.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 48-33 +13.8u
Cairns +2 1u
NZ v Cairns under 193.5 2u
I think NZ will struggle to score as freely as usual with their imports out, as the players who will get most of the extra minutes Henare and Vukona are far less potent offensively. Cairns have been struggling to score all season, so under looks value to me.
Even with Tucker and Cattalini out the Cairns line up has more potential for mine with Black, Mee, Jawai and Abney. They were terrible last start versus NZ but have shown signs they could realise their potential such as when they beat Brisbane by 22.
Cairns only decent performance on the road this season has been their win in NZ in round one which could give them some confidence going into this one.
Would consider taking this line with Brisbane at full strength, but with Mckinnon and Bradshaw out it looks value to me.
Apart from one weekend when Hawkins and Harvey were carrying injuries, GC have not done much wrong so far this season.
Brisbane overan Perth and Singapore in the final quarter of their past two games. Singapore were on back to back. Perth were handling Brisbane then Brisbane went on a 15-2 run at the start of the 4th quarter. Prior to this they lost 4 out of 5, with the win being a one porint win over Souths. To me this suggests Brisbane's form is pretty pedestrian, which is suprising given that CJ Bruton and Ebe Ere have been on fire.
Melbourne -1.5 1u
Perth have one win in their last four games, they beat Wollongong who were in a terrible spot playing in Cairns, NZ then Perth in 8 days. I think one of their major problems is that they don't have any quality 3 point shooters - they have the worst 3p% in the league at 31%. They also go into this with injury concerns for Rogers, Loughton and Robbins. Fisher expects them all to play.
Melbourne were poor against Townsville shooting 43% on 2 point shots and only 4 of 26 3p shots. A pretty tough trip to play Cairns wednesday then Perth Saturday. Despite this I like their chance of bouncing back and beating Perth who I think there are major question marks over.
Thinking about the under, but the lines seem to have come down a few points this week making it a tough call.
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YTD: 49-34 +12.7u
Gold Coast +7.5 1u
Gold Coast +6.5 1u
Would consider taking this line with Brisbane at full strength, but with Mckinnon and Bradshaw out it looks value to me.
Apart from one weekend when Hawkins and Harvey were carrying injuries, GC have not done much wrong so far this season.
Brisbane overan Perth and Singapore in the final quarter of their past two games. Singapore were on back to back. Perth were handling Brisbane then Brisbane went on a 15-2 run at the start of the 4th quarter. Prior to this they lost 4 out of 5, with the win being a one porint win over Souths. To me this suggests Brisbane's form is pretty pedestrian, which is suprising given that CJ Bruton and Ebe Ere have been on fire.
Melbourne -1.5 1u
Perth have one win in their last four games, they beat Wollongong who were in a terrible spot playing in Cairns, NZ then Perth in 8 days. I think one of their major problems is that they don't have any quality 3 point shooters - they have the worst 3p% in the league at 31%. They also go into this with injury concerns for Rogers, Loughton and Robbins. Fisher expects them all to play.
Melbourne were poor against Townsville shooting 43% on 2 point shots and only 4 of 26 3p shots. A pretty tough trip to play Cairns wednesday then Perth Saturday. Despite this I like their chance of bouncing back and beating Perth who I think there are major question marks over.
Thinking about the under, but the lines seem to have come down a few points this week making it a tough call.
Missed both bets by 20 points last night, suggesting i may have started another cold streak.
Townsville +3.5 2u
Adelaide v Townsville under 197.5 1u
I consider John Rillie a crypron factor for townsville, when he plays well the team usually does well. After a fairly slow start to the season his shot attempts have increased and on wednesday he had possibly his best game of the season with 22 points including 6/9 3s. I suggest this stems from the fits opposition teams are having trying to contain homicide williams, leading to Rillie and others getting easier shots.
Townsville's defence has also been impressive in recent times giving up an average of 89 points over the past 5 games while scoring 99.
Not that keen on the under but my forecast is for a score in the 180s and I am going with it.
Sydney -3.5 1u
Cairns v Sydney over 187.5
Im a bit concerned that Sydney hasn't played since last friday, but imagine that Goorgian knows what to do in this situation to fire up the team.
Cairns look much better with Darnell Mee back running the show and his 30 points at 67% on thursday night show he can still be an offensive force. However, Sydney have been very consistent all season only losing the one game whereas the taipans have been very inconsistent - for example losing to NZ by 20 at home then beatig them by 25 five days later on the road. I rate Sydney the best team in the league and willing to back them in this situation.
Sydney has only failed to reach 100 points once in the last 6 games, when they scored 99. Cairns have cracked 100 in two of the three games Darnell Mee has played, albeit against poor opposition in a tired Wollongong and undermanned NZ. I did fairly well taking Cairns unders earlier in the season but i think they will generally score more points going forward.
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YTD: 49-36 9.7u
Missed both bets by 20 points last night, suggesting i may have started another cold streak.
Townsville +3.5 2u
Adelaide v Townsville under 197.5 1u
I consider John Rillie a crypron factor for townsville, when he plays well the team usually does well. After a fairly slow start to the season his shot attempts have increased and on wednesday he had possibly his best game of the season with 22 points including 6/9 3s. I suggest this stems from the fits opposition teams are having trying to contain homicide williams, leading to Rillie and others getting easier shots.
Townsville's defence has also been impressive in recent times giving up an average of 89 points over the past 5 games while scoring 99.
Not that keen on the under but my forecast is for a score in the 180s and I am going with it.
Sydney -3.5 1u
Cairns v Sydney over 187.5
Im a bit concerned that Sydney hasn't played since last friday, but imagine that Goorgian knows what to do in this situation to fire up the team.
Cairns look much better with Darnell Mee back running the show and his 30 points at 67% on thursday night show he can still be an offensive force. However, Sydney have been very consistent all season only losing the one game whereas the taipans have been very inconsistent - for example losing to NZ by 20 at home then beatig them by 25 five days later on the road. I rate Sydney the best team in the league and willing to back them in this situation.
Sydney has only failed to reach 100 points once in the last 6 games, when they scored 99. Cairns have cracked 100 in two of the three games Darnell Mee has played, albeit against poor opposition in a tired Wollongong and undermanned NZ. I did fairly well taking Cairns unders earlier in the season but i think they will generally score more points going forward.
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