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    NCAA LAX Final Four

    MaineRoad
    bevoaustintx
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    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
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    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 4:02 PM ET #1

    Here's last week's ramblngs:

     

    Duke to win title +260 - they have guys you forget about who would be the best player on several teams left in the tourney. 

    Notre Dame to win title +650 - I think they have the second-best talent in the country, and it seems to be coming together.  I don't think they'll have much trouble with Albany, and I'm generally pretty bearish on Maryland.  Good chance to be in the final.

    Bryant +3.5 -110 - Terps' offense blows, and Bulldogs have a great face-off guy and keeper.  Maryland 10-8.

    ND -135 vs. Albany - Albany is great fun to watch, and has one of the greatest players in history, but let's see how they do when they don't have the ball all day like they did last week.  Irsih 16-11

    Drexel/Denver under 23.5 -130 - Pioneers will look to slow it down and grind Dragons into the ground.  I think the Ivy League was profoundly over-rated this year, so the Dragons' win last week doesn't impress me as much as it might others. Denver 12-8. 

    Duke - 1.5 (-110) vs. Hopkins - I'll certainly be rooting for hte Jays, but this is pretty cheap.  Should be a good game.  I think the total is about right. 14-10 Devils.

     

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Here's last week's ramblngs:

     

    Duke to win title +260 - they have guys you forget about who would be the best player on several teams left in the tourney. 

    Notre Dame to win title +650 - I think they have the second-best talent in the country, and it seems to be coming together.  I don't think they'll have much trouble with Albany, and I'm generally pretty bearish on Maryland.  Good chance to be in the final.

    Bryant +3.5 -110 - Terps' offense blows, and Bulldogs have a great face-off guy and keeper.  Maryland 10-8.

    ND -135 vs. Albany - Albany is great fun to watch, and has one of the greatest players in history, but let's see how they do when they don't have the ball all day like they did last week.  Irsih 16-11

    Drexel/Denver under 23.5 -130 - Pioneers will look to slow it down and grind Dragons into the ground.  I think the Ivy League was profoundly over-rated this year, so the Dragons' win last week doesn't impress me as much as it might others. Denver 12-8. 

    Duke - 1.5 (-110) vs. Hopkins - I'll certainly be rooting for hte Jays, but this is pretty cheap.  Should be a good game.  I think the total is about right. 14-10 Devils.

     

     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
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    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 4:16 PM ET #2

    I had a great Sunday, after a not-so-great Saturday. 

    Maryland came out and played to win (instead of not to lose) in a big game for the first time in memory.  Kudos to them, and for Caoch Tillman for finally getting his head out of his rear-end.  That game was over five minutes in.  As I said before, Maryland's offense sucks (or has sucked), but it's not like they don't have players.  Tillman turned them loose last week and they looked like a different team.  We'll see if the Terps play the same way next Saturday.

    Albany/ND was awesome.  Lyle Thompson is unfairly lumped into "The Thompsons."  There may be two other Thompsons who are pretty good,  but Lyle is as good as anyone who has ever played the game - what a joy to watch, he is.  I suspect he will wind up changing how the game is played, as there are, no doubt, thousands of kids out working on the behind-the-back, over-the-head, and whatever other sick stuff Mr. Thompson showed off these past couple of weeks.  I'm going to miss watching him. 

    I can't stand Bill Tierney, but boy can he coach.  Watching Denver run its offensive sets is a thing of beauty.  Their defense is also sick.  They held high-flying UNC to 11 shots on goal in their first round win (yes, you read that correctly), and just toyed with Dresel in what was essentially a road game yesterday.  They are unliky to draw Duke in the semis, as I think they'd handle either team on the other side of the draw.  

    Duke is crazy good.  They likely lost SR Attackman Josh Dionne for the rest of the year on the best, clean hit I've seen in a lax gme in ages.  Shouldn't matter, though I susepct Coach Tierney (Denver) will spend the week trying to figure out how to make the most out of the loss of their primary quarterback. 

    Reply

    I had a great Sunday, after a not-so-great Saturday. 

    Maryland came out and played to win (instead of not to lose) in a big game for the first time in memory.  Kudos to them, and for Caoch Tillman for finally getting his head out of his rear-end.  That game was over five minutes in.  As I said before, Maryland's offense sucks (or has sucked), but it's not like they don't have players.  Tillman turned them loose last week and they looked like a different team.  We'll see if the Terps play the same way next Saturday.

    Albany/ND was awesome.  Lyle Thompson is unfairly lumped into "The Thompsons."  There may be two other Thompsons who are pretty good,  but Lyle is as good as anyone who has ever played the game - what a joy to watch, he is.  I suspect he will wind up changing how the game is played, as there are, no doubt, thousands of kids out working on the behind-the-back, over-the-head, and whatever other sick stuff Mr. Thompson showed off these past couple of weeks.  I'm going to miss watching him. 

    I can't stand Bill Tierney, but boy can he coach.  Watching Denver run its offensive sets is a thing of beauty.  Their defense is also sick.  They held high-flying UNC to 11 shots on goal in their first round win (yes, you read that correctly), and just toyed with Dresel in what was essentially a road game yesterday.  They are unliky to draw Duke in the semis, as I think they'd handle either team on the other side of the draw.  

    Duke is crazy good.  They likely lost SR Attackman Josh Dionne for the rest of the year on the best, clean hit I've seen in a lax gme in ages.  Shouldn't matter, though I susepct Coach Tierney (Denver) will spend the week trying to figure out how to make the most out of the loss of their primary quarterback. 

     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
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    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 4:30 PM ET #3

    Lines are out, and they're interesting:

     

    Duke -1.5 (+105)  - 170  25.5 under -160

    Maryland  -1.5 -105 -190 18.5 over -160

    I really like this Denver team, but that's pretty cheap on the Devils to win by 2 or more.  Would probably lean under (apparently with the rest of the world), but I'm not so sure.  Duke's defense is no big deal, and DU has carved up better teams.  Tierney isn't going to run with Duke, but Duke and their dominant face-off guy will have something to say about that.  Denver could have scored 20 yesterday.  Duke can score 20 any day.  Tough call. Also tough to bet against Bill Tierney with a week to prepare. 

    So which Maryland team shows up?  If it's the one that played last weekend, I like them to avenge the game they threw away to the Irish in the ACC Tourney.  The Irish are wierd, and seem to play close the everyone.  When they're good, they're great, but they often aren't either.  I like Maryland to win, but a one-goal win would hardly surprise, and I'm not paying -190 for the privilege.  I do think the total is a couple of goals light, and see value even at the -160, as I think this game winds up at 21 or 22. 

    Reply

    Lines are out, and they're interesting:

     

    Duke -1.5 (+105)  - 170  25.5 under -160

    Maryland  -1.5 -105 -190 18.5 over -160

    I really like this Denver team, but that's pretty cheap on the Devils to win by 2 or more.  Would probably lean under (apparently with the rest of the world), but I'm not so sure.  Duke's defense is no big deal, and DU has carved up better teams.  Tierney isn't going to run with Duke, but Duke and their dominant face-off guy will have something to say about that.  Denver could have scored 20 yesterday.  Duke can score 20 any day.  Tough call. Also tough to bet against Bill Tierney with a week to prepare. 

    So which Maryland team shows up?  If it's the one that played last weekend, I like them to avenge the game they threw away to the Irish in the ACC Tourney.  The Irish are wierd, and seem to play close the everyone.  When they're good, they're great, but they often aren't either.  I like Maryland to win, but a one-goal win would hardly surprise, and I'm not paying -190 for the privilege.  I do think the total is a couple of goals light, and see value even at the -160, as I think this game winds up at 21 or 22. 

     
    bevoaustintx
    bevoaustintx
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    Joined: Mar, 2004
    Posts: 142852
    Posted: May. 21, 2014 - 1:58 AM ET #4



    7/1 QF'S THANKS TO YOU, THANKS BUDDY
    Reply


    7/1 QF'S THANKS TO YOU, THANKS BUDDY
     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
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    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 21, 2014 - 4:15 PM ET #5

    That's awesome, Bevo.    It's usually a pretty profitable time of the year, and this has been no exception.  

    Final Four numbers are tough at this point.  Not much value left in Maryland under -210, though I do think they missed the line there.  There's value in ND +175, as Maryland  has laid more eggs than most chickens during recent big game appearances.  I also wonder if Tillman will go back into his (turtle) shell now that he's not playing Bryant.   If so, this game probably comes down to a goal either way.  Terps are also really youmg, and may not react well to the big, home stage.  Duke is really good, but Denver is coached by a genius.  It's scary to go against him with a week to get ready.  Still, plus money on the Devis to win by 2 or more?  Yeah, I'm in.  I know Denver will try like hell to play the game under the total.  We'll see if they can.  I don't think Duke's been under 15 in six weeks.  GL, whatever you wind up doing. 

    Reply

    That's awesome, Bevo.    It's usually a pretty profitable time of the year, and this has been no exception.  

    Final Four numbers are tough at this point.  Not much value left in Maryland under -210, though I do think they missed the line there.  There's value in ND +175, as Maryland  has laid more eggs than most chickens during recent big game appearances.  I also wonder if Tillman will go back into his (turtle) shell now that he's not playing Bryant.   If so, this game probably comes down to a goal either way.  Terps are also really youmg, and may not react well to the big, home stage.  Duke is really good, but Denver is coached by a genius.  It's scary to go against him with a week to get ready.  Still, plus money on the Devis to win by 2 or more?  Yeah, I'm in.  I know Denver will try like hell to play the game under the total.  We'll see if they can.  I don't think Duke's been under 15 in six weeks.  GL, whatever you wind up doing. 

     
     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
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    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 25, 2014 - 9:48 PM ET #6

    Duke -1.5 -140. Please. I suppose anything could happen, but I don't think the Irish are within 4 goals most days. ND won't stop Duke, so they'll have to value the ball and shorten the game. Could happen, but I doubt it.

    I already have both teams to win the title, so I'll leave the ML's alone, but I think Duke over 12.5 should be money.
    Reply
    Duke -1.5 -140. Please. I suppose anything could happen, but I don't think the Irish are within 4 goals most days. ND won't stop Duke, so they'll have to value the ball and shorten the game. Could happen, but I doubt it.

    I already have both teams to win the title, so I'll leave the ML's alone, but I think Duke over 12.5 should be money.
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