Olympic Swimming capping

I stumbled onto this last night on another website (beyondthebets.com) 

This capper has made great calls with Lochte on 400IM and Vollmer with 100m fly.  He's not perfect as his prediction on Aussies in the 4x100 free relay missed badly.  But he sounded sharp enough to at least tail some longshots.I'm taking some of his other picks like Cielo for 100m free.  My book doesn't list all the events.  Take it FWIW.

"Men’s Swimming

The most talked about rivalry at Summer Olympics 2012 is undoubtedly between Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, who will compete head-to-head in two events—the 200 Individual Medley and the 400 Individual Medley. Lochte is the current favorite in both events, but his real advantage should be in the 400 IM, where his superior training over the last four years will pay off. The 200 IM is a coin flip and not worth the bet. No other swimmers will challenge them in these events.

Individually, Phelps and Lochte are more vulnerable. Phelps almost lost the 100 Butterly four years ago to Milorad Cavic in a photo finish. With Cavic at +600, you get great value, but he has not shown the form recently to prove that he can test Phelps again. Phelps (-500) should easily win the 200 Butterfly, an event he has dominated for 12 years. Lochte is the -120 favorite in the 200 Freestyle and is the defending World Champion, but Sun Yang +800 is a great long shot pick. Like Phelps in the 200 Butterfly, Lochte has dominated the 200 Backstroke and should win the event easily.

In the 100m Freestyle, there could be considerable value on Cesar Cielo. The former Auburn star is listed at 5-to-1 and is the best upset pick in the event.

In the relays, the favorites should win all three events, with the US winning the 4×200 Freestyle and the 4×100 Medley, and the Australians winning the 4×100 Freestyle.

Women’s Swimming

Missy Franklin is the star of the American women. She is only +150, but should win the 100 backstroke easily. The 200 freestyle will be a tough event for her, but at 2.25-to-1, she carries some value along with fellow American Allison Schmitt at 4-1. Franklin (-300) should easily win the 200 backstroke.

American Dana Vollmer is undervalued at -120 in the 100 Butterfly and will probably break the world record in this event. On the other hand, Rebecca Soni is considerably overvalued at -350 in the 100 breaststroke. At Olympic Trials, Soni lost the event to Breeja Larson, who at this time looks like a steal at +350.

Men’s Triathlon

The Brownlee brothers of Great Britain will dominate this race. Alistair Brownlee is a great bet at -150. The pre-race favorite has never won the men’s triathlon at the Olympics, but he is the best ever in the sport and should buck that trend. If you can bet any other “No” to win gold medal, it’s probably a safe bet.

Women’s Triathlon

In the women’s event, it is normally a good idea to bet against someone coming off of a win. But, because most of the top women have avoided each other the last few months, they are all coming off wins. Helen Jenkins last raced in April in San Diego, where she dominated. She is the slight favorite, but you aren’t getting much at +120. Both Nicola Spring (+500) and Erin Densham (+800) are almost as likely to win and provide a lot more value."